2019 Canadian Federal Election

[narduch]

The biggest lie Harper told in his 10 years was that Trudeau is not ready now - but may be in the future.
It is obvious that Trudeau is an absolute imbecile who has none of the skills required to lead the country. He embarrasses us almost on a daily basis. October can't come soon enough. Hopefully those adds make people realize what a colossal mistake they made 4 years ago.

The irony of these comments is that Trudeau is still a better leader than Scheer.

 

[Hopkins123]

The worst part of last night's Raptor game wasn't the outcome. It was the election ads.

The conservatives deserves to lose the election for creating a new version on the 'hes not ready ad'

Oh c'mon. That ad was far more witty and effective in messaging than the Scheer-Ford association ads made by the friends of the Liberal Party.

 

[jje1000]

It is odd that their campaign head authorized a redo of Harper’s failed ads. Trudeau won a majority in the face of those ads, what more do the Cons need to know about their efficacy?

Circumstances are different now. Back then, voters likely thought those ads were in poor taste for making preassumptions of Trudeau- but whatever what you think about Trudeau's accomplishments, he has a track record to run against now. That single-use plastic ban press conference is one of them.

Secondly, the ads are extremely recognizable despite their infamy the time- I think the ads will be appealing to Conservatives who will see it as a "I told you so" sort of thing.

 

[narduch]

Oh c'mon. That ad was far more witty and effective in messaging than the Scheer-Ford association ads made by the friends of the Liberal Party.

Both ads were horrible.

They were like bad SNL skits.

Actually worse,. Bad This Hour has 22 Minutes skits.

 

[jje1000]

Yet another broken element that will hardly be addressed- again these are slow-moving stakes slowly being driven through confederation, and contributing to that slow buildup of resentment throughout other parts of the country:

Douglas Todd: Quebec gets four times as much as B.C. to settle immigrants
Douglas Todd June 11, 2019

Quebec gets roughly four times as many taxpayer dollars from Ottawa to settle each of its immigrants as B.C., Ontario and several other provinces get.

What’s worse, the one-sided gap is growing bigger each year.

That’s because of a deal called the Canada-Quebec immigration accord, which prime minister Brian Mulroney signed in 1991 to give unique immigration powers to francophone provinces, mainly to appease a surging sovereigntist movement.

As a result, Quebec this year is receiving more than $11,600 for each immigrant and refugee it takes in, with the money meant to provide settlements services such as language and job training.

B.C. receives only about $2,400 for each new immigrant or refugee. Saskatchewan gets about $2,500, Ontario receives about $2,600 and Alberta gets about $3,300.

Despite Quebec chopping its immigration levels by 20 per cent, the province will continue to get more money based on the generous financial mechanisms built into the Canada-Quebec accord.

It includes an escalator clause, which dictates that Canada is obliged in most years to give more money to Quebec to settle its new permanent residents, but never less than in a previous year.

What it adds up to is that Quebec will get $559 million for 2019-20, while B.C. will get a paltry $100 million — while needing to provide services to virtually the same number of new immigrants and refugees as Quebec.

Ontario, which accepts about 130,000 immigrants a year (by far the largest of any province), will get $340 million. Alberta, which usually takes about the same number as B.C., will receive $129 million.

To put it mildly, Quebec has little incentive to call attention to its golden financial immigration goose.

“I’m happy Quebec gets all the money. Eighty per cent of it normally goes into general revenue,” said Reichholt, adding an undetermined portion, which may be about to increase, is distributed to settlement agencies.

This is not the only profitable arrangement Quebec has with Ottawa on immigration. There is also the Quebec Immigrant Investor Program, which attracts nine out of 10 of its millionaire applicants from Asia, mostly China. Each must inject a $1.2 million loan into Quebec’s coffers.

But only one in 10 of the well-to-do migrants who take advantage of Quebec’s investor program choose to live there. Instead, most of the roughly 5,000 migrants a year who exploit the buy-a-passport program immediately move to Metro Vancouver and Toronto.

Since Reichholt is tasked with overseeing Quebec’s settlement programs, he expects each agency will receive double or triple the funding this year. He also expects the premier to direct some of the settlement money received through the Canada-Quebec immigration accord into public education, health care and to support temporary foreign workers and international students — something the other provinces are not allowed to do.

“Quebec’s immigration program is unique in the world” in the way the province’s politicians can almost entirely call their own shots, while being generously supported by federal tax dollars, said Reichholt.

“But that’s not necessarily fair for you in B.C.”

Douglas Todd: Quebec gets four times as much as B.C. to settle immigrants

It's an amazing sweetheart deal for Quebec, unfair to B.C. and Ontario. But few Canadian realize it, since the subject is virtually taboo among politicians.

theprovince.com

 

[pman]

The attachment gives an idea of federal revenues from and expenditures in each province for 2017. The general conclusion that, per capita, Quebec takes more and contributes less than Ontario (or Alberta or BC) is supported by the data.

Distribution of Federal Revenues and Expenditures by Province*

 

[Videodrome]

Marieke Walsh
@MariekeWalsh
NEW: The Ford government plans to roll out anti-carbon tax stickers at all gas stations just as the federal election campaign gets underway.

Doug is staying out of the election. Pay no attention to this.

 

[Northern Light]

Forum poll released yesterday.

For the sake of consistency, I don't put any more stock in this poll than any other at this stage........but putting it out there for others to enjoy!

http://poll.forumresearch.com/data/cf5f57b7-9591-4d11-bb10-db56138287d3Horserace%20News%20Release%20June%2011th%202019.pdf

The highlights:

Cons: 34
Libs: 30
NDP: 13
Green: 13
BQ 6
PPC: 4

Estimated Seat Totals:
Cons:151
Libs:134
NDP: 27
Greens: 3
BQ: 23
PPC:

Notable numbers:

Greens:
4th in Quebec at 15% only 4 points under the Conservatives, and ahead of the NDP
3rd in Atlantic Canada at 16% (triple the NDP), but well behind the 'big 2'
3rd in BC at 18%, ahead of the NDP, trailing the Libs by only 4%
The only province/region w/the Greens in single digits is AB


BQ :
At 23% in Quebec, well behind the Libs but ahead of everyone else.

Libs:
Leading Ontario w/37%, to the Cons 30%

Cons
Lead in AB, Man/Sask and Atlantic Canada and notably in BC

NDP
Lead..........nowhere...in 2nd (tie) in only one region, AB......at 12%.....eesh.

 

[Videodrome]

How can the NDP retain official party status at this point?

 

[narduch]

How good is May's French? Maybe the Greens could make some shocking gains there

 

[adma]

How can the NDP retain official party status at this point?

A certain degree of "incumbent efficiency"--it's how they held more seats than the Tories in 1993.

 

[PinkLucy]

How good is May's French? Maybe the Greens could make some shocking gains there

From what I recall, she's decent but struggles at times -- that's based on the last election though, so she may have been working on it over the past few years

 

[adma]

One thing I notice in recent polls is that the NDP's polling best or near their best in Ontario--probably a bit of vestigial "Horwath honeymoon" effect, I suppose...

 

[christiesplits]

I'm interested in seeing how high the ceiling is for the Greens.

Can they appeal to ethnoburbs like Markham or Burnaby? Blue collar towns along the Southern Ontario rust belt?

 

[steveintoronto]

How good is May's French? Maybe the Greens could make some shocking gains there

A point I've discussed with another poster is that with the leadership polls, "None of the Above" is the result. All the leaders are quite unpopular. With this, and the NDP on the brink of an open schism, and others in the major two parties feeling only loosely connected, the Greens won't stand alone as the alternative. There's already two well known and popular independents, one highly popular and electable, and the selling point for the Greens and independents (and more will emerge) is that "we're not an official party" (including the Greens) and some of us aren't even in any formal party, but if you vote for our bloc, collectively, will guarantee we will vote as one on these very important issues: 'X, Y, Z etc' if you elect us.

THAT will be a massive enticement for otherwise doubters to abandon the major parties. It means 'not wasting your vote'...*especially* if a minority government is formed.

This is exactly what's happening in the UK at this time. Canada's variation of the Westminster Model is slightly different, but many if not most of the applicable evolutionary trends are the same.

This is being mentioned time and again in columns by established pundits, and not just May's name, but Schreiner's being mentioned, even though he's an MPP. And on that point, I think Schreiner would be a much more apt leader of a federal Green Party, all due respect to May. Schreiner is able to articulate the centrist, business approach to 'sensible politics'. Hmmm...there's a thought. Mike resigning his provincial seat to run federally in Guelph. Guaranteed election...

UK politics has changed for ever. The main parties must adapt or die
Major parties across Europe are dying
The Independent Group Is a Sign Two-Party Politics Is Dying
Can UK political parties be saved from extinction? - BBC News
Green Party declare two-party system 'dying' after historic election