2019 Canadian Federal Election

[AlvinofDiaspar]

No the liberals are the Trudeau party and are a cult around him.

Therefore my vote is against the liberals

Sometimes I wonder who are the cult members - those who are generally supportive of the party because of their policies, and hold no great adulteration about the leader; or those who are virulently against a party not because of the policies, but because of their party leader.

You can usually tell by the language used when communicating their passions - just saying.

AoD

 

[ADRM]

He has not been a very good prime minister

Okay, I'll bite and give you a chance to put intellect over emotion: which of these outcomes do you believe to be undesirable?

> Lowest unemployment rate in half a century
> Fastest wage growth in a decade
> Lowest debt-to-GDP ratio in the G7
> The institution of the most aggressive climate change policy in Canada's history, including putting a price on pollution
> 900,000 people lifted out of poverty (including 300,000 children)

I'm upset with the Liberals because I'm personally quite progressive, and they haven't been progressive enough for my liking -- buying the pipeline with my tax dollars was itself nearly enough to turn me away from them -- but I don't find any of the other parties to be even remotely supportable based on a combination of horrible public policy in their platforms, and/or regressive (and, in some cases, downright harmful) stances on social issues.

 

[PinkLucy]

^^^ This. As much as I do not like the man based on his public persona, those facts are hard to argue with. I can put up with him in the face of continued progress / prosperity, especially given the alternative where we will see cuts -- sure, we'll get an extra $450 or whatever on our tax return, but that comes at a cost. We will go backwards on so many things.

 

[salsa]

I'm upset with the Liberals because I'm personally quite progressive, and they haven't been progressive enough for my liking -- buying the pipeline with my tax dollars was itself nearly enough to turn me away from them -- but I don't find any of the other parties to be even remotely supportable based on a combination of horrible public policy in their platforms, and/or regressive (and, in some cases, downright harmful) stances on social issues.

Out of curiosity, why isn't the NDP an option for you?

 

[AlvinofDiaspar]

Okay, I'll bite and give you a chance to put intellect over emotion: which of these outcomes do you believe to be undesirable?

> Lowest unemployment rate in half a century
> Fastest wage growth in a decade
> Lowest debt-to-GDP ratio in the G7
> The institution of the most aggressive climate change policy in Canada's history, including putting a price on pollution
> 900,000 people lifted out of poverty (including 300,000 children)

I'm upset with the Liberals because I'm personally quite progressive, and they haven't been progressive enough for my liking -- buying the pipeline with my tax dollars was itself nearly enough to turn me away from them -- but I don't find any of the other parties to be even remotely supportable based on a combination of horrible public policy in their platforms, and/or regressive (and, in some cases, downright harmful) stances on social issues.

To play devils advocate - I don't think Trudeau can directly claim that his policies are what lead to the current bout of economic growth - there are historical and external factors at play, and his government basically played steward to that legacy. His party can certainly lay claim to their work on the other issues though.

AoD

 

[ADRM]

To play devils advocate - I don't think Trudeau can directly claim that his policies are what lead to the current bout of economic growth - there are historical and external factors at play, and his government basically played steward to that legacy. His party can certainly lay claim to their work on the other issues though.

AoD

On the facts, I certainly agree, but as we all know, politicians (especially those left of centre) get roundly and routinely criticized when the economy sputters, so I think it's important to point out the successes when they come, even if the attribution is questionable.

I do think his government deserves credit for its policy efforts intended to spur economic diversification -- to that end, there are some interesting charts highlighting the explosive growth of the Canadian tech sector over the last four years in this Bloomberg article from today: Trudeau Has Canada's Economy Humming.

 

[W. K. Lis]

Out of curiosity, why isn't the NDP an option for you?

The majority of Canada do NOT want the Conservatives to get in. However, that is SPLIT between the Liberals, NDP, Green, People's Party of Canada, and the Bloc Québécois. Depending on one's riding, one has to vote for the party who has the best chance of winning, IN THAT RIDING, and is NOT Conservative (and not People's Party of Canada).

 

[ADRM]

Out of curiosity, why isn't the NDP an option for you?

The emotional-cum-intellectual answer, for me, is that I don't trust a party whose intelligentsia is comprised at least partly of people who believe that their party's main goal is to forever remain in opposition, as opposed to govern (which is indeed the case) and, similarly and partly as a result, I don't believe they have the bench strength to fill out a political staff across government.

The purely intellectual answer for me lies in the NDP platform, which is littered with a whole bunch of dumb and expensive stuff that I think either represents bad public policy, isn't remotely plausible, or pertains entirely to matters under provincial jurisdiction -- a brief smattering:
- Restoration of home mail delivery; a promise to create 300K jobs; mandating employers to dedicate a percentage of total payroll to training; literally everything it includes on trade, including all the protectionist stuff and, most egregiously, re-opening NAFTA; increasing FDI investment attraction; extended auto industry, aerospace industry, and manufacturing subsidies; a specific focus on protecting supply management; 3-point corporate tax increase.

There's good stuff in there, too (and there's bad stuff in each party's platform), and I think it's the second-best platform, but that's not saying a whole lot.

I totally understand why people who broadly align with my ideological policy leanings feel like they can and should vote NDP, but I just can't bring myself to do so. For what it's worth, I do wish it weren't the case; I don't really feel good about voting Liberal this time 'round, but I also don't feel like I have any other choice. If I had a Liberal lawn sign, it'd have a big "begrudgingly" Sharpied onto it.

 

[kEiThZ]

I'm not a Trudeau fan, but our economic indicators are pretty good right now, so maybe take a look at that instead of focusing on him. https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-10-17/trudeau-has-canada-s-economy-humming

Meh. There's a reason that economy is not translating into votes. Moreover, running $20+ billion deficits is simply storing up pain for later.

I'll head off the responses at the pass:

"But hey our debt-to-GDP is low."

No it isn't. We're quickly approaching the 90s level of debt-to-GDP which forced Chretien and Martin to resort to social spending cuts.

Canada Government Gross Debt to GDP

Canada recorded a Government Debt to GDP of 107 percent of the country's Gross Domestic Product in 2022. This page provides - Canada Government Debt To GDP - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

tradingeconomics.com

We're about 10 points away from the 90s crisis level. And the next recession is all but guaranteed to get our debt-to-GDP well over 100%.

It's unfortunate that Scheer is such a tool and the Conservatives have been a reactionary political party pushing cuts for the affluent and austerity for the rest. A message of a balanced fiscal policy, with tax cuts entirely reserved for the lower income brackets could have actually sold quite well. I think there's more than a few who are leery of the idea of running deficits in perpetuity as a long as federal debt-to-GDP stay below 30% apparently. People forget the old Chretien/Martin deal. Half of any surplus went to debt reduction. The other half was split between tax cuts and new spending.

 

[Northern Light]

- Restoration of home mail delivery; a promise to create 300K jobs; mandating employers to dedicate a percentage of total payroll to training; literally everything it includes on trade, including all the protectionist stuff and, most egregiously, re-opening NAFTA; increasing FDI investment attraction; extended auto industry, aerospace industry, and manufacturing subsidies; a specific focus on protecting supply management; 3-point corporate tax increase.

There's good stuff in there, too (and there's bad stuff in each party's platform), and I think it's the second-best platform, but that's not saying a whole lot.

With the bolded items excepted, I'm happy to agree w/your thesis.

I happen to have no issue with a 3-point rise in corporate tax when that would leave us with an extremely competitive effective corporate tax rate globally. One could argue for tightening up the Corporate Income tax
structure instead (removing accelerated capital cost depreciation, ineffective, yet rich R&D tax credits, etc etc., instead; and I could get behind that too).

On supply management, my challenge is that virtually ever country in the developed world highly subsidizes their agriculture sector. Canada, largely, went the route of supply management instead.

This has allowed customers to pay something closer to the real cost of food, and farmers to break-even or profit.

In a globalized trading world; the only alternative to supply management is gobs of taxpayer subsidies, which I could cheerfully do without.

There are alternatives if we can negotiate them w/various countries; but that's not reflective of current conditions.

 

[Northern Light]

Meh. There's a reason that economy is not translating into votes. Moreover, running $20+ billion deficits is simply storing up pain for later.

I'll head off the responses at the pass:

"But hey our debt-to-GDP is low."

No it isn't. We're quickly approaching the 90s level of debt-to-GDP which forced Chretien and Martin to resort to social spending cuts.

Canada Government Gross Debt to GDP

Canada recorded a Government Debt to GDP of 107 percent of the country's Gross Domestic Product in 2022. This page provides - Canada Government Debt To GDP - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

tradingeconomics.com

We're about 10 points away from the 90s crisis level. And the next recession is all but guaranteed to get our debt-to-GDP well over 100%.

It's unfortunate that Scheer is such a tool and the Conservatives have been a reactionary political party pushing cuts for the affluent and austerity for the rest. A message of a balanced fiscal policy, with tax cuts entirely reserved for the lower income brackets could have actually sold quite well. I think there's more than a few who are leery of the idea of running deficits in perpetuity as a long as federal debt-to-GDP stay below 30% apparently.

I agree this is a problem.

I would prefer to see modest surpluses and steady debt reduction in good economic times.

But I also favour more investments in infrastructure and targeted new social programs such as pharmacare.

I think we need to raise some taxes (and lower some non-priority spending) to get there.

Be that as it may.

Worth saying there are some big differences between today's high GDP levels and those of the 90s.

1) Our debt relative to our peers is lower now than then. The U.S. is at 106% debt to GDP, Italy at 134% and Japan a staggering 238%!

Country List Government Debt to GDP

This page displays a table with actual values, consensus figures, forecasts, statistics and historical data charts for - Country List Government Debt to GDP. This page provides values for Government Debt to GDP reported in several countries. The table has current values for Government Debt to...

tradingeconomics.com

2) Interest rates and the cost of servicing said debt have declined markedly; by more than half.

That said, it would be prudent to either

A) Use this opportunity to get debt down

B)Use the cheap money exceedingly wisely for long-term capital/infrastructure investments that will pay off for decades to come.

 

[AlvinofDiaspar]

"But hey our debt-to-GDP is low."

No it isn't. We're quickly approaching the 90s level of debt-to-GDP which forced Chretien and Martin to resort to social spending cuts.

Canada Government Gross Debt to GDP

Canada recorded a Government Debt to GDP of 107 percent of the country's Gross Domestic Product in 2022. This page provides - Canada Government Debt To GDP - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

tradingeconomics.com

We're about 10 points away from the 90s crisis level. And the next recession is all but guaranteed to get our debt-to-GDP well over 100%.

I think those figures are for all levels of government - from a purely fiscal perspective the problem isn't at the Federal level - it is at the Provincial level. Having said that it just speaks to a broader issues around Federal/Provincial responsibilities vs. revenue.

AoD

 

[BurlOak]

I'm not a Trudeau fan, but our economic indicators are pretty good right now, so maybe take a look at that instead of focusing on him. https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-10-17/trudeau-has-canada-s-economy-humming

In the Doug Ford thread - I like to compare Ontario to her neighbours during the era of various Premiers. This takes out the huge fact that business cycles vary.
Doing the same thing With Canada and USA (her largest trading partner) shows that Trudeau has actually done very poorly and is likely only staying afloat in absolute terms due to buoyancy from the strong USA economy. As seem form the graphs, Trudeau is by far the worst of the past 3 gov'ts.

 

[kEiThZ]

I think those figures are for all levels of government

This is a misleading argument regularly put forward by Liberal partisans. The reason national level figures are used by economists, is because that's the only way to have an apples to apples comparison between countries. Governments are structured differently everywhere with different responsibilities at each level. Any valid comparison has to account for that.

- from a purely fiscal perspective the problem isn't at the Federal level - it is at the Provincial level. Having said that it just speaks to a broader issues around Federal/Provincial responsibilities vs. revenue.

Agreed. Which is why keeping the debt-to-GDP at 30% or whatever the target is federally is pointless if provincial debt balloons. It's not great to have both the feds and provinces running deficits.

I think we need to raise some taxes (and lower some non-priority spending) to get there.

Absolutely agree. My biggest disappointment with Trudeau was cutting taxes and increasing spending. I could understand "small $10 billion deficit". How that ballooned to $80+ billion in new debt over his four year term is beyond me.

1) Our debt relative to our peers is lower now than then. The U.S. is at 106% debt to GDP, Italy at 134% and Japan a staggering 238%!

This is sort of like comparing yourself to the C and D student in the class. The US is in trouble. And they'll be paying for a lot of their fiscal irresponsibility in the coming decade. But they also have a large economy that affords them flexibilities that we don't have. They also pay far less to finance their debt than we do. I'd rather we stay ahead of the game.

2) Interest rates and the cost of servicing said debt have declined markedly; by more than half.

Yeah. But unless Trudeau reverses course, we now face an era of increasing debt and increasing interest rates. Those servicing costs are going to start growing. I'd be less worried if Trudeau simply proposed to sunset the deficit soon. But he's promising more deficits. And Scheer is promising the same. For anybody not in their 80s, this should be worrisome, we'll be paying for it in a few years.

 

[Jasmine18]

Okay, I'll bite and give you a chance to put intellect over emotion: which of these outcomes do you believe to be undesirable?

> Lowest unemployment rate in half a century
> Fastest wage growth in a decade
> Lowest debt-to-GDP ratio in the G7
> The institution of the most aggressive climate change policy in Canada's history, including putting a price on pollution
> 900,000 people lifted out of poverty (including 300,000 children)

I'm upset with the Liberals because I'm personally quite progressive, and they haven't been progressive enough for my liking -- buying the pipeline with my tax dollars was itself nearly enough to turn me away from them -- but I don't find any of the other parties to be even remotely supportable based on a combination of horrible public policy in their platforms, and/or regressive (and, in some cases, downright harmful) stances on social issues.

Issue is people like the liberal poliices but hate trudeau..

Why else is he doing so badly in this election then if he has done a good job..

Being a complete hypocrite on issues of feminism by engaging in sexual inappropriate behaviour himself.

Engaging in unethical behaviour to benefit himself in Quebec while saying he will do politics differently.

Wearing blackface in the past many times while saying he has always been a progressive in the past.

The flaw you guys dont see and cant accept is most people like the liberal policies but find our prime minister a liar and a hypocrite and dont want to vote for him..