2019 Canadian Federal Election

[adma]

Yay! Hooray! 25 seats that didn't vote Conservative the last time around probably won't do so again. Mind blown!

What anti-Conservatives seem to not grasp is that the CPC do not need the City to win a majority. Even a handful of wins in the 416 would be more than adequate. And I know a few ridings where this outcome may prove to come true.

Keep in mind that it'd take another 70 or so seats for CPC to get into majority territory. And if (*if*) DoFo continues to be negative-50 in approval ratings, that's not going to be confined to ridings which PC/CPC doesn't already hold or is not competitive in--though yes, it also doesn't necessarily mean they're headed for a Kim Campbell (or Ignatieff Liberal) scale of drubbing; but it also means that Trudeau-backlash net gains in Ontario might be more limited than they counted on. Heck, there are current Con seats they could even *lose* (like Niagara Falls, where Rob Nicholson's retiring). And as for the rest: they're already close to maxed out in the Prairies--that is, their ceiling for gains might be 10 or so; they *might* get another 5-10 in the BC Interior; and it's difficult to tell what the provincial PC swing foretells for the party's federal brethern in the Maritimes (perhaps 5-10 more there in places like NB's Anglo interior), or who the CAQ gov't in Quebec primarily benefits federally. And I'm *not* getting into the Maxime Bernier matter (partly because so far, his party's performance has given little reason to do so--but who knows, really)

 

[Jasmine18]

Trudeau has only 177 seats right.

He needs 170 for a majority...

He will likely lose 5-10 seats in the East Coast, lose all the seats in Alberta and likely 5-10 in BC...

Now he will likely win 10-20 seats in Quebec.

The issue is Trudeau needs to keep every single seats in Ontario for him to even have a chance of a majority.

 

[Northern Light]

Trudeau has only 177 seats right.

He needs 170 for a majority...

He will likely lose 5-10 seats in the East Coast, lose all the seats in Alberta and likely 5-10 in BC...

Now he will likely win 10-20 seats in Quebec.

The issue is Trudeau needs to keep every single seats in Ontario for him to even have a chance of a majority.

The campaign in not yet in earnest, so all this speculation is a tad premature.

But a consensus of both public and private polling data has the Cons/Libs topping out at about 162 seats; so neither gets a majority (which suits me fine, since neither deserves one)

Things could obviously change.

But as of now, a minority seems most likely, the question being whether the Libs/Cons have the plurality and whether the non-plurality party opts to assemble a coalition. (I expect the Cons would find this more challenging, but I digress)

 

[PinkLucy]

The CBC poll tracker has proven itself to be quite accurate: https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/poll-tracker/canada/. A couple of months ago, it was calling for a strong Conservative majority. As things evolve, as the Doug factor has an impact, things are changing. But as @Northern Light says, right now it's all somewhat premature. It's fun to keep an eye on it and watch changes over time as things happen.

 

[Jasmine18]

The campaign in not yet in earnest, so all this speculation is a tad premature.

But a consensus of both public and private polling data has the Cons/Libs topping out at about 162 seats; so neither gets a majority (which suits me fine, since neither deserves one)

Things could obviously change.

But as of now, a minority seems most likely, the question being whether the Libs/Cons have the plurality and whether the non-plurality party opts to assemble a coalition. (I expect the Cons would find this more challenging, but I digress)

The biggest issue facing the liberals is that they wont get the same turnout as last time.

 

[Hopkins123]

The campaign in not yet in earnest, so all this speculation is a tad premature.

But a consensus of both public and private polling data has the Cons/Libs topping out at about 162 seats; so neither gets a majority (which suits me fine, since neither deserves one)

Things could obviously change.

But as of now, a minority seems most likely, the question being whether the Libs/Cons have the plurality and whether the non-plurality party opts to assemble a coalition. (I expect the Cons would find this more challenging, but I digress)

Could it not be said then that it is also too premature to assume that Ford's alleged unpopularity is going to hurt Scheer all that badly in Ontario, much less the ROC?

Trudeau has maxed out his brand's popularity in Ontario. They can only go down from here. They will not win back all 55 GTA seats and there's nothing left to gain. The sweep of York Region by the Tories, for instance, seems all but inevitable unless we're projecting John Tory's war with the Province onto the neighbouring cities to the north now where as far as has been reported the RH, Vaughan, Newmarket, and Markham Mayors are still all quite chummy with the PCs last I checked.

North York/Northern Scarborough is also a place to watch on election night. Wouldn't be surprised with 3-6 Con pick-ups there. What may be seen as unlikely today could all change in a matter of months. The PC gov't strategically won't resume operations till after the election, giving the summer barbecue circuit enough time to maneuver it's way through the backlash and let things cool down and be forgiven and forgotten.

You just can't project your own biases into something this complex when there are broader general public sentimental trends at play here as evidenced by the past 8 provincial election outcomes. We know both Trudeau and Singh are deeply unpopular. This can only bode well for the Tories (and Greens).

 

[Hopkins123]

The biggest issue facing the liberals is that they wont get the same turnout as last time.

I think this is shaping up to be one of those classical voting "Against something" rather than "For something or someone" elections. The polarization of the electorate is at a fever pitch.

 

[Admiral Beez]

Could it not be said then that it is also too premature to assume that Ford's alleged unpopularity is going to hurt Scheer all that badly in Ontario, much less the ROC?

I don't think anyone is assuming Ford's unpopularity in Ontario matters whatsoever to federal voters outside of Ontario. The reason Ford's unpopularity affects the ROC is that they do not have enough votes to offset a Conservative rout in Ontario, especially if Trudeau can keep Quebec.

 

[adma]

The sweep of York Region by the Tories, for instance, seems all but inevitable unless we're projecting John Tory's war with the Province onto the neighbouring cities to the north now where as far as has been reported the RH, Vaughan, Newmarket, and Markham Mayors are still all quite chummy with the PCs last I checked.

It's a functional chumminess, but keep in mind that at the very least, the Vaughan and Markham Mayors are Liberal (and the former, an ex-MP to boot)

 

[Northern Light]

You just can't project your own biases into something this complex when there are broader general public sentimental trends at play here as evidenced by the past 8 provincial election outcomes. We know both Trudeau and Singh are deeply unpopular.

I'm not. You seem to be.

North York/Northern Scarborough is also a place to watch on election night. Wouldn't be surprised with 3-6 Con pick-ups there. What may be seen as unlikely today could all change in a matter of months. The PC gov't strategically won't resume operations till after the election, giving the summer barbecue circuit enough time to maneuver it's way through the backlash and let things cool down and be forgiven and forgotten.

The numbers I am privy to, don't set anything in stone. Like any polls they should be taken with a grain of salt.

That said, in Toronto, I see the Conservatives in play in only 3 ridings, none of them in Scarborough. Beyond that, I'm not going to provide further detail at this point.

They will not win back all 55 GTA seats and there's nothing left to gain.

They don't have all of the GTA seats now.

The sweep of York Region by the Tories, for instance, seems all but inevitable...........

The Conservatives seem more likely than not to make to make a few pick-ups in York Region, a sweeps is considerably less likely.

They don't seem likely to make more than 2 pick-ups in Mississauga, and maybe not even 1.

They are near certain to lose one existing 905 seat.

 

[narduch]

Ford's cuts hurt more people then the SNC scandal. That will leave a lasting mark.

Conservatives are screwed in Ontario. They will win their usual seats that are full of hicks but will struggle in any urban area.

 

[jje1000]

I think this is shaping up to be one of those classical voting "Against something" rather than "For something or someone" elections. The polarization of the electorate is at a fever pitch.

Yup, as much as polls are an indicator of current sentiment rather than accurate predictors, I still think that public has a sort of "irritation zone" that politicians run against.

It's the cumulation of a whole bunch of smaller things that builds up over time, and everyone weighs those missteps differently.

As of now it's really seeing who stays in that zone the longest- the Liberals or the Conservatives- which will have a lasting impact on the election.

 

[narduch]

The worst part of last night's Raptor game wasn't the outcome. It was the election ads.

The conservatives deserves to lose the election for creating a new version on the 'hes not ready ad'

 

[Admiral Beez]

The worst part of last night's Raptor game wasn't the outcome. It was the election ads.

The conservatives deserves to lose the election for creating a new version on the 'hes not ready ad'

It is odd that their campaign head authorized a redo of Harper’s failed ads. Trudeau won a majority in the face of those ads, what more do the Cons need to know about their efficacy?

 

[BurlOak]

The worst part of last night's Raptor game wasn't the outcome. It was the election ads.

The conservatives deserves to lose the election for creating a new version on the 'hes not ready ad'

The biggest lie Harper told in his 10 years was that Trudeau is not ready now - but may be in the future.
It is obvious that Trudeau is an absolute imbecile who has none of the skills required to lead the country. He embarrasses us almost on a daily basis. October can't come soon enough. Hopefully those adds make people realize what a colossal mistake they made 4 years ago.