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2018 Provincial Election Transit Promises
- Thread starter innsertnamehere
- Start date
Leo_Chan
Senior Member
NO FORD! How does something remotely similar to this situation even happen?
mdrejhon
Senior Member
I have a progressive transit-loving friend who had signed up to be a card carrying conservative.
He's going to facepalm if Doug Ford is the one.
It would be a betrayal for many progressive-minded conservatives.
Then again, Ford is polling only 11%....and it is a Forum poll of only 768.
Then again, he quits Toronto politics to run for Cons, then Wynne wins, GO RER is safe, Ford is gone from Toronto politics.
Hmmm.
But.
NO!!
(...realizing Trump and Rob Ford both actually won their longshots...)
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AlvinofDiaspar
Moderator
Actually planks get dropped all the time - often times with good reasons (bad policy that sells); and often times because it never mattered enough in the post-election electoral calculus. The policies that get stuck around are the ones that are driven by their rock solid supporters - and transit may or maynot be it.
AoD
Sandpit
Active Member
Yeah but that's post-election. The election hasn't even happened yet, so really the only good reason to drop a plank is if there is a massive backlash against it.
AlvinofDiaspar
Moderator
But to me the only planks that matters are the ones that are made good - and sadly there is no good way to tell if they will (though one should pay attention to internal party dynamics).
AoD
kEiThZ
Superstar
Well I guess the Scarborough Subway is assured if this happens:
https://twitter.com/CP24/status/958023955041931264
And, much as I don't like it, I think Ford has a shot. Scarborough voted for RoFo. If that translates to DoFo and the PCs keep their provincial base and get some of the 905, a real shot of DoFo becoming Premier.
https://twitter.com/CP24/status/958023955041931264
And, much as I don't like it, I think Ford has a shot. Scarborough voted for RoFo. If that translates to DoFo and the PCs keep their provincial base and get some of the 905, a real shot of DoFo becoming Premier.
nfitz
Superstar
How? The rest of the province thinks he's a joke. Yes, he'll get some votes from Etobicrack and Scarberia where he actually won the last mayoral election. But he can't even win Toronto - let alone the rest of the province - and that's just the leadership.
I'd think the Liberals would be quite pleased to be fighting Doug Ford in the next election!
kEiThZ
Superstar
The only question here, for the PCs, is, who can deliver more seats in the GTA. That's really what they need to win. They don't need to win anywhere near even a majority of the seats in the GTA. But if they get a third of the seats between the GTA and Ottawa, they are like to form government. The Tories have to flip 15 seats for a minority, if they keep what they have. The rural parts of this province hate Wynne. So it comes to flipping 15 Liberal held seats (for a minority) out of the ~50 in the GTA and Ottawa. Tough. But definitely not impossible.
I could see them getting at half a dozen seats in Scarborough and Etobicoke alone. I think people underestimate Ford at their peril.
Was that really necessary? Come on.
SunriseChampion
Senior Member
Where the hell are Etobicrack and Scarberia? I can't find them on a map of Ontario.
nfitz
Superstar
It's not that simple. There's also 17 new ridings - 15 from the new federal distribution, and the 2 new northern ridings. The PCs probably aren't getting the northern ridings.
And many of the new ridings are in urban centres where the Consevatives do poorly, or in parts of the 905 that the Liberals hold. The only PC riding in Toronto, Mississauga, Brampton is Raymond Cho's, and it's quite changed by redistribution. It could be at risk. Meanwhile one of the two NDP ridings in Toronto may well go Liberal, with DiNovo's resignation - she only held it by 500 votes, and now her name is gone. Perhaps only Toronto-Danforth is safe; though the NDP have a very strong candidate in local councillor Janet Davis in traditionally NDP Beaches-East York, which has been flip-flopping everywhere - so who knows.
I don't, if it get's that scary, the significant NDP support will run Liberal. Scarborough only picked up 1 riding (now 6) while Etobicoke/York stays at 5. North York(ish) picks ups one seat for 6 - and surely Liberal Shelley Carroll is a shoe-in here, it was all part of her ward.
Meanwhile Toronto itself (+ East York) rises from 6 to 8.
Maybe they pick up 2 or 3, but perhaps they lose their only one in Scarborough.
And the further you get away from Toronto, where many of the new ridings, and even existing Conservative ridings, are suburban, and not huge PC majorities either ... the likes of Doug Ford will push some traditionally Conservatives to Liberal ... and scare the NDP voters. I actually think that Wynne would hold, with at least a minority, and quite likely a majority, with NDP support collapsing (though the only post Ford/Fedili poll actually showed he NDP picking up 6% in 905 and Southwestern Onario. In 905 at the expense of the undecided, but in SW Ontario also at the expense of the Conservatives, where I expect Ford would play worst.
Yes. Voting Doug Ford in the last city election? And Rob Ford before that.
That's pretty polite ... who does that? If you are conservative, vote Tory, sure. But Ford?!?
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kEiThZ
Superstar
I took that into account when I said flip 15 seats for a minority.
Historically yes. But in an anti-incumbent wave election, trends can falter. I would argue, if the PCs have ever had shot, this round is it. And they can and will flip some of the GTA. The only question is how much.
A riding which has not gone conservative in 30 years. Even if the boundaries change a bit, I'd be more concerned about adjoining seats flipping too.
I'm from the riding. My family has done campaign work for Cho. I detest the guy and voted against him. But I saw what won him the election. And contrary to pundit talk about sex ed, it was the damn subway. That's all him and DoFo actually talked about when the campaigned. And that was the biggest complaint if you talk to anybody in the riding. I see no reason, why the same campaign can't be employed against neighbouring ridings.
That's the hope I guess. If fortress GTA shows cracks, I'm curious to see where the Liberals make it up. The only viable place left is Northern Ontario. Steal from the dippers there. But last time around the Liberals got only 3 of 11 seats in the North.
Nonsense like this only feeds the sense of isolation in those parts. You are painting them as the other. And for what? Because you don't agree with their choice of mayor?
You can be respectful while disagreeing with the politics of others. It's incredible that a grown man has to be told this. Do you teach your kids to name call too?
BurlOak
Senior Member
Are those two northern ridings going ahead?
It seems almost corrupt that the governing party is allowed to add new ridings on a whim less than a year before the election. The other ridings were based on an ongoing process of seat redistribution based on changing population. The northern ones where purely decided by the Liberals.
Maybe if the PC's get in they can divide Grey, Bruce, Huron and Simcoe into 200 ridings and they would win a majority every time.
ShonTron
Moderator
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Are those two northern ridings going ahead?
It seems almost corrupt that the governing party is allowed to add new ridings on a whim less than a year before the election. The other ridings were based on an ongoing process of seat redistribution based on changing population. The northern ones where purely decided by the Liberals.
Maybe if the PC's get in they can divide Grey, Bruce, Huron and Simcoe into 200 ridings and they would win a majority every time.
There is one additional northern provincial riding compared to the old pre-October 2015 federal ridings. There will be two additional northern ridings.
I'm not at all opposed to allocating Northern Ontario one or two additional seats from what they otherwise would get. It's a remote region, with long distances between communities, including several accessed only by rail, and even more only by ice road and/or fly-in. The provincial government matters more in the north, as many small communities do not even have a municipal government.
It's not as if that extra seat helped much in the fight to save the Northlander, after all.
hw621
Senior Member
Does the recent subway overcrowding make People's Promise more appealing?