2018 Ontario Provincial Election Discussion

[Amare]

Wynne has absolutely 0% chance of winning the next election and in my opinion, anyone who says otherwise is lying to themselves. I was in full support of Wynne when she was elected, but she's past her expiration date.

How someone manages to have a majority government and have a 13% approval rating is beyond me.

 

[salsa]

Wynne has absolutely 0% chance of winning the next election and in my opinion, anyone who says otherwise is lying to themselves. I was in full support of Wynne when she was elected, but she's past her expiration date.

How someone manages to have a majority government and have a 13% approval rating is beyond me.

Generally speaking, when Metroman makes a prediction, chances are the opposite will actually happen.

 

[SJD_Toronto]

A new leader with fresh political capital like Eric Hoskins could even the field against Brown. Without the Wynne handicap, I think that the Liberals would have an edge.

Eric Hoskins would be as bad as Deb Matthews or Liz Sandals . If the Grits really want an edge after 2018 (and yes, I think Brown and the Tories can win a big majority government next year... I'm thinking 70 seats or so), someone who has had NOTHING to do with the McGunity / Wynne years should take the leadership role. If Hoskins were to get the leadership role and win in 2018, he would probably face the same pressure in resigning before the next election rolls around, much like Wynne now as we approach the 2018 election; Hoskins would merely continue unpopular policies. Hoskins is no leader and I think he would be an awful Liberal leader. It would be a familiar face but the same old crew running the show. Liberal MPPs such as Hoskins and Matthews are a part of the current problem and all they do is blame past governments for everything - Hoskins does that almost daily!

Put someone in the leadership role who has no baggage from the Ontario Liberal party of the last 15 years.

 

[steveintoronto]

How much longer can it go on?

Hydro rates shock Ontario Premier Kathleen Wynne’s approval rating
Shawn McCarthy


OTTAWA — The Globe and Mail

Published Friday, Mar. 24, 2017 5:00AM EDT
Ontario Premier Kathleen Wynne has seen a historic slump in her job-approval ratings as Ontarians continue to fret over increased hydro bills and the sale of the Hydro One utility, says new polling by the Angus Reid Institute released Friday.

With a 2018 election looming, the provincial Liberal Premier has the endorsement of only 12 per cent of voters, down from a 41-per-cent approval rating just 18 months ago, the Angus Reid Institute survey revealed.

The institute’s executive director, Shachi Kurl, said Ms. Wynne has sunk to depths almost never seen among provincial premiers in recent history, with only former British Columbia premier Gordon Campbell dropping below 10 per cent before he resigned in November, 2010.

“There is no way to sugar-coat this, it’s not a good situation for the Premier,” Ms. Kurl said. “But clearly, based on what we’re seeing and hearing, there may be some continuing belief that the Premier herself, or the party can turn things around” before an election that is scheduled for June, 2018.[...]

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news...hleen-wynnes-approval-rating/article34412531/

Edit to Add: It *must* be obvious she has to step-down? So let's flip this forum premise over to "How long until Wynne steps down?".

I say within the next few weeks. Thoughts?

 

[christiesplits]

I'm in my 20s so I can't compare it to the dying days of the Harris/Eves and Rae terms, but to those who remember how does the disdain for Wynne compare?

 

[BurlOak]

The hate for Wynne is a bit worse than for McGuinty and Rae. I think Harris and Eves were in a much better position. Also, the province was in a much better position than it was under Rae or McGuinty or now. Federally, Mulroney would be up there and maybe more hated than those listed above.
The key is the McGuinty example. There is likely no government in Ontario history that deserves to lose more than this Liberal one - but they still might have a path to power by getting a Wynne 2.0 who can fool the masses just long enough.

 

[MetroMan]

How much longer can it go on?

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news...hleen-wynnes-approval-rating/article34412531/

Edit to Add: It *must* be obvious she has to step-down? So let's flip this forum premise over to "How long until Wynne steps down?".

I say within the next few weeks. Thoughts?

Wow... 12%

Yeah, she's done. The hydro rebate was her last attempt at recovering. It didn't work and she'll be forced out. Liberal leadership convention in the next few months.

 

[Towered]

Wow... 12%

Yeah, she's done. The hydro rebate was her last attempt at recovering. It didn't work and she'll be forced out. Liberal leadership convention in the next few months.

I hope so. The thought of a majority conservative government in Ontario repulses me.

 

[steveintoronto]

I'm in my 20s so I can't compare it to the dying days of the Harris/Eves and Rae terms, but to those who remember how does the disdain for Wynne compare?

I Googled for a good five minutes or more, couldn't get solid numbers to state, the best I could quote is "lowest in living memory", to which I'd attach thirty years for the author who stated that. It's abysmal, doubtless.

So let's flip this forum premise over to "How long until Wynne steps down?".
I say within the next few weeks

Yeah, she's done. The hydro rebate was her last attempt at recovering. It didn't work and she'll be forced out. Liberal leadership convention in the next few months.

Just in case it appears that MM and myself are stating different time frames, I should clarify that an *announcement* will be forthcoming in the next few weeks, and based on that, as MM states, a leadership convention in the next few months. The logistics of a convention highly indicate it would be in June, after Wynne proroguing the legislature.

There is likely no government in Ontario history that deserves to lose more than this Liberal one - but they still might have a path to power by getting a Wynne 2.0 who can fool the masses just long enough.

Be careful what you wish for! Once the Libs have someone fresh, new and untainted to run, all the new leader would have to do is form a complete sentence, be aware of the issues, and not have a tawdry gaggle of parasitic neo-jerkers attached as Brown does, to get a clear majority. If the Libs do get "anyone but the Wynne-McGuinty Axis", then the Cons are going to have to find someone equally able to have a chance at winning. And that's probably someone from outside, and Centrist, like Michael Chong.

Edit to Add: Oddly, Chris Selley (a noted pragmatist at the NatPest) wrote a piece today miming Tim Murphy's stance on Wynne:
There are people who loathe her but Wynne is Liberals' greatest asset, not their biggest problem

He makes valid points, but it doesn't change what the polls clearly state...

 

[Tuscani01]

Wow... 12%

Yeah, she's done. The hydro rebate was her last attempt at recovering. It didn't work and she'll be forced out. Liberal leadership convention in the next few months.

And the Ontario Liberals need a Trudeau to stand any chance of winning re-election. All of the names I've seen floating around so far to replace Wynne are nothing more than extensions of her. The party needs someone new at the helm, not someone with all the baggage Wynne has piled onto the Liberal brand.

 

[christiesplits]

Put someone in the leadership role who has no baggage from the Ontario Liberal party of the last 15 years.

Maybe Michael Bryant wants to make a comeback? While he was an early McGuinty cabinet minister, the biggest controversy he had in office was the divisive pitbull ban. His baggage is personal, non-political.

 

[steveintoronto]

Maybe Michael Bryant wants to make a comeback? While he was an early McGuinty cabinet minister, the biggest controversy he had in office was the divisive pitbull ban. His baggage is personal, non-political.

Anything and everyone should be considered, anything to change the channel for the OntLibs, except those presently tainted, unfairly or not.

An interesting point keeps coming up in discussions on/by all three provincial parties, and it's an unfortunate characteristic of the times: Many/most persons confuse the federal and provincial leaders, parties and policies. This presents a real conundrum for provincial party leadership contests, as there are so many unknowns vying for the role, thus my suggesting Michael Chong (who is a registered OntCon, btw!) as an absolute shoo-in to get the OntCons elected.

Let's be honest here, the only hope of Brown getting elected is that he isn't Wynne. It was bad enough with "Who-Dat?", it's even worse with Brown, thus the media refrain "Who is Brown and what does he stand for?" Even Con strategists don't know, and worse, are terrified of his speaking publicly.

And to an extent, the same with the OntLibs. Outside of cabinet, name recognition is almost completely absent. As much as I believe the OntLibs running "anyone but Wynne" contingent on it being against Brown, I can easily see a majority voting against Brown. He scares people, his only saving grace being that Wynne scares them even more.

Parachute in some recognized names from the federal level to lead, and you have a real contest. The problem with that is the resentment in the ranks, as always happens with 'outside leaders'.

But the ranks are going to have to swallow that bitter pill to cure the disease of un-electability.

And when Brown figures out how to make a point, finish a complete sentence, and truly convince the public that his knee-jerk has been cured, be sure to send a memo to the Ontario public. Meantime, the OntLibs had best start casting around for someone with name recognition from the federal Libs. lol...and one of them is already eliminated: Last name: McGuinty. David McGuinty.

 

[pman]

I wonder if Sorbara will take another crack at politics. He and his Vaughan developer buddies presumably made fortunes out of the Spadina subway extension, but think how much more a well-informed developer will make if the province approves the Line 1 extension to Richmond Hill.

 

[BurlOak]

Be careful what you wish for! Once the Libs have someone fresh, new and untainted to run, all the new leader would have to do is form a complete sentence, be aware of the issues, and not have a tawdry gaggle of parasitic neo-jerkers attached as Brown does, to get a clear majority. If the Libs do get "anyone but the Wynne-McGuinty Axis", then the Cons are going to have to find someone equally able to have a chance at winning. And that's probably someone from outside, and Centrist, like Michael Chong.

I don't wish for a new Liberal leader, I am saying the switch might work.
However, I don't think anyone in Ontario (outside of perhaps the downtown core) wants the Liberals back. The thought that the Liberals still might have a chance is a sad commentary on the apathy of the voters.

 

[steveintoronto]

http://ottawacitizen.com/opinion/co...-the-ontario-liberals-are-making-things-worse

Echoes of "Conserve Ontario".

However, I don't think anyone in Ontario (outside of perhaps the downtown core) wants the Liberals back.

I think the vast majority of Ontarians do wish the Liberals back. Just not the Wynne ones.

Ontario is still a Liberal bastion, federally, provincially, and societally. Don't mistake voters turning against Wynne as considering Brown a viable option.

A new Lib leader of even mediocre stature and ability would trounce Brown and his band of renown. And that is exactly the point that Wynne has to realize.