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2018 Ontario Provincial Election Discussion

John_Dee said:
It's remarkable now to think the PCs used to be a respectable political party.
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Same could be said of the Liberals. Scrubbing computers, criminal conviction, giving wind power deals to insiders, etc., etc. Bob Rae may not have run the best government, but I don't recall the whiff of corruption that the PCs and Libs exude this election.

Liberal insider gets wind-power contract
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/liberal-insider-gets-wind-power-contract-1.510278

Former top Ontario Liberal aide sentenced to 4 months in jail for role in gas plants scandal
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toron...aid-jail-gas-plants-dalton-mcguinty-1.4613731

Ornge overspending slammed by Ontario auditor general
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toron...-slammed-by-ontario-auditor-general-1.1150507

EHealth scandal a $1B waste: auditor
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ehealth-scandal-a-1b-waste-auditor-1.808640
 
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It appears to be over. Every poll out today shows the PCs ahead by 1-4 points. The NDP has to be up by that much to make up for vote distribution.

Unless there’s a major surprise and Liberal voter intention reflected in the polls is different than actual votes that Liberals cast, there’s no way the NDP can make up for it even if they have a great turnout.

Doug Ford is going to be our premier... Shudder.
 
Macleans/Pollara says its a tie at 38-38

Ipsos is 39-36 for Ford

Not sure what else is out today, thus far.

I'm really unclear on where this is going, I haven't been out in the 905 that much, but so far based on sign war the only seat I've seen the PCs ahead in is Don Valley North, but it doesn't appear to be ahead by a walk.

Minnan-Wong may be competitive in Don Valley East but the Libs also appear to be.

Those 2 may not be indicative.

But its enough to have me wondering.

I did talk to the staff at my Dentists today, which is in 905, indications were ...undecided to leaning NDP on a 'hold your nose' basis. Entirely anecdotal.
 
^I'm not so sure MetroMan. We could see a surprise on election night. There is a lot of groundswell of NDP support among people who do not regularly vote NDP, furthermore a good segment of PC voters are turned off by Ford which may suppress the PC vote. If these two factors are relevant the NDP could surprise the models?

On the other hand a low turn out would in my opinion favour the PCs. To the extent that anger against the Liberal government remains a dominate theme I think it benefits the PC's more than the NDP. To the extent the electorate is pissed off and to the extent the electorate is turned-off from voting these factors favour the PC's in my opinion.

While the models favour the PCs I don't I think it could break either way with a surprise NDP win or a wide PC majority both possibilities
 
I wonder if the Liberals have yet to reach their low point? Even if you're a consistent Liberal voter in Toronto Centre or St. Paul's, the prospect of DoFo in office should make you hold your nose at the ballot booth and vote NDP, no?
 
mjl08 said:
I wonder if the Liberals have yet to reach their low point? Even if you're a consistent Liberal voter in Toronto Centre or St. Paul's, the prospect of DoFo in office should make you hold your nose at the ballot booth and vote NDP, no?
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I think Wynne's capitulation will also help lower their numbers.
 
mjl08 said:
I wonder if the Liberals have yet to reach their low point? Even if you're a consistent Liberal voter in Toronto Centre or St. Paul's, the prospect of DoFo in office should make you hold your nose at the ballot booth and vote NDP, no?
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Those crossover Liberals are already reflected in the NDPs surge from the low 20s to the mid 30s. The 18% that the Liberals are holding on to, appears to be their floor. I know Liberals who are just like their NDP equivalents who will always vote their conscious and don’t consider it a throwaway vote even knowing their party won’t win.

narduch said:
I think Wynne's capitulation will also help lower their numbers.
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Neither Wynne’s announcement, nor Renata Ford’s lawsuit had any baring in the numbers in either direction.

I hope there’s a surprise but the momentum in the last couple of days seems to be with the PCs and Election Day is tomorrow. Their numbers have actually gone up in the last 48 hours as people have made up their minds.
 
Mike Colle and Shelley Carroll are (correctly) telling voters that they're only ones in the ridings that can stop Ford.

Unfortunately some other Liberals are doing that where it makes no sense, like in St. Paul's where the PCs are a distant third. This is as much a pitch to John Tory voters as it is to progressive voters thinking of voting NDP.

And I hear that in Rosedale they're telling voters that the PCs will stop the NDP.
 
Horwath as strong opposition leader might be good, and good for the NDP. I imagine had Rae had a few years as opposition leader to weed out the wackos and deadweight in his caucus he would have made a better premier and leader in the next round.

Do we want Horwath to hit a glass cliff, with a surprise win, then surrounded by radicals and incompetents for cabinet?
 
Considering how many pc people have legal issues i would think they will be equally incompetent. Therefore morals has to be the deciding factor. They aren't saints but the ndp people aren't PC's either
 
Admiral Beez said:
Horwath as strong opposition leader might be good, and good for the NDP. I imagine had Rae had a few years as opposition leader to weed out the wackos and deadweight in his caucus he would have made a better premier and leader in the next round.

Do we want Horwath to hit a glass cliff, with a surprise win, then surrounded by radicals and incompetents for cabinet?
Click to expand...

Funny how we don't seem to ask that of the PCs though. In that case, bugs seems to be the feature.

narduch said:
I think some Liberal supporters may not even bother voting.
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I would not be surprised by that.

AoD
 
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