2018 Ontario Provincial Election Discussion

[pman]

To recap:

Liberals first promise four years of deficits, then promise any “surplus” - yeah, right - will go to debt reduction, while the Auditor General calls Liberal presentation of financial statements “bogus”, which is another word for a lie.

PC’s have no plan at all, except to throw expensive pork barrel at targeted groups. Unless you call deficit elimination through completely unspecified efficiencies a plan.

NDP also promise deficits, and it turns out they can’t even add, which makes sense given their OISE power base.

Whoever is elected, we’re fucked.

 

[adma]

Promising cheap beer isn't a good sign that the PC's are confident about their chances of winning. At least that is how I see it.

Well, yeah.

 

[SunriseChampion]

Whoever is elected, we’re fucked.

Bingo! Though, I rather think it won't make a difference to me in any way.

 

[Admiral Beez]

I get it that Wynne wants to Scandinavia’ize Ontario with cradle to grave nanny state programs, like free tuition, free dental, free meds, high min wage, etc, etc.... But why hasn’t she put in place the means to pay for this?

 

[PinkLucy]

Because voters want stuff but they never want to hear that they are going to pay for it.

 

[JWBF]

Psst. I've got Ferris Wheel for ya, just slightly used.

 

[Northern Light]

Because voters want stuff but they never want to hear that they are going to pay for it.

While I think there's a great deal of truth in this statement..........

I think politicians do a disservice to may voters if they believe that.

It would be my impression that many voters have been though past tax hikes and can't put there finger on what they got back by way of more or better service for it.

Sometimes, that's just voters not paying attention.

But often they're not wrong.

Money evaporates, not, typically, through gross mismanagement or corruption, though people may wonder about that; but rather through frittering it away.

Think of some of the raises Toronto police have had (and its not unique to them).

Where they had three successive years of increases in the 6% range, when inflation was under 3% and compensation already generous.

People see that (or don't) but they do know they forked out more money and wonder why the bus is so crowded, the wait time for a specialist doctor so lengthy etc.

Politicians can propose tax hikes and get buy in, but people want a clear commitment of exactly what that new money will deliver and not see it vanish down a rabbit hole.

That's one more problem w/sustained, large deficits is that we now need to raise taxes just to tread proverbial water.

That makes hikes an ever tougher sell.

Honesty can sell. But you have to seem honest, while being honest, and that's something that has challenged a generation of politicians.

 

[steveintoronto]

I get it that Wynne wants to Scandinavia’ize Ontario with cradle to grave nanny state programs,

I've got to take you to issue on using that analogy. We'd be freakin' lucky to have the competitive advantage of the Scans, let alone the standard of living, quality of life and education:

[...]
Misconceptions
George Lakey, author of Viking Economics, asserts that Americans generally misunderstand the nature of the Nordic "welfare state":

Americans imagine that "welfare state" means the U.S. welfare system on steroids. Actually, the Nordics scrapped their American-style welfare system at least 60 years ago, and substituted universal services, which means everyone—rich and poor—gets free higher education, free medical services, free eldercare, etc. [60]

In his role as economic adviser to Poland and Yugoslavia in their post-socialist transitional period, Jeffery Sachs noted that the specific forms of Western-style capitalism such as Swedish-style social democracy and Thatcherite liberalism are virtually identical:

The eastern countries must reject any lingering ideas about a “third way”, such as a chimerical “market socialism” based on public ownership or worker self-management, and go straight for a western-style market economy...The main debate in economic reform should therefore be about the means of transition, not the ends. Eastern Europe will still argue over the ends: for example, whether to aim for Swedish-style social democracy or Thatcherite liberalism. But that can wait. Sweden and Britain alike have nearly complete private ownership, private financial markets and active labour markets. Eastern Europe today [in 1990] has none of these institutions; for it, the alternative models of Western Europe are almost identical.[61]

In a speech at Harvard's Kennedy School of Government, Danish Prime Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen addressed the American misconception that the Nordic model is a form of socialism: "'I know that some people in the US associate the Nordic model with some sort of socialism,' he said. 'Therefore, I would like to make one thing clear. Denmark is far from a socialist planned economy. Denmark is a market economy.'"[62]
[...]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nordic_model

And since that was written, Sweden, Finland and Denmark (I'm not up on the latest for Norway and Iceland) have voted in Centre-Right regimes. Finland is even leaning towards a Populist Rightist last time I checked.

Quick check:
Finnish coalition at risk after party elects far right leader
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...nister-seeks-to-break-up-coalition-government

How Sweden Became “The Most Alt-Right” Country In Europe
Alt-right activist Richard Spencer is building a global media company with partners from Sweden, a country with an alt-right of its own that’s helped transform national politics.
https://www.buzzfeed.com/lesterfede...ntry-in-europe?utm_term=.uy3RqvVA2#.mabqAYDnZ

Denmark swings to the right as centre-left coalition accepts defeat
Rightwing surge means Danish People’s party becomes second biggest force – boosting David Cameron’s demand for EU reform, but piling misery on centre-left
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ings-right-centre-left-coalition-faces-defeat

Etc. Interpretation is needed for the above examples, and brought up to date, which I will gladly do if challenged, but it's indicative of how little many Canadians know about other nations' political mojo, let alone what they know about their own.

It bodes badly for Ontarians having at least half a clue, let alone any, on this election, save for some of the exceptions like we see in forums like this.

 

[steveintoronto]

Think some of the raises Toronto police have had (and its not unique to them).

And Robbie supported it.

Honesty can sell. But you have to seem honest, while being honest, and that's something that has challenged a generation of politicians.

I was just thinking about the exceptions to that, and most are as you state, a generation ago. Paul Martin's balancing the nation's finances for instance, albeit at incredible stress to the provinces. And Peter Lougheed's warnings to Alberta on the Heritage Fund. And of course, Prentice in a moment of honesty, signed his own defeat:
ALBERTA
02/12/2015 04:31 EST | Updated 04/15/2015 05:59 EDT
Prentice's Cuts To Budget Will Not Sit Will With Albertans, NDP Warns
https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2015/02/13/alberta-budget-cuts_n_6672938.html

One party being vastly more forthright with the costs of doing better government is the Green Party. I take issue with some of their platform, but they're wholly refreshing in describing a larger canvas to project upon, and where things fit, how they will pay for themselves, the costs of doing them that won't, and the benefits of doing them that will.

Of course, it will never sell to the Great Unwashed.

 

[christiesplits]

Unfortunately for Wynne, who usually performs well in debates, no one will be watching it tonight with this great backyard weather and people driving home from the cottage.

 

[steveintoronto]

Unfortunately for Wynne, who usually performs well in debates, no one will be watching it tonight with this great backyard weather and people driving home from the cottage.

It will be online at a number of sites for replay. Agreed on Wynne's debating and overall awareness skills. It's really unfortunate for Ontario that it's come to this. I keep trying to watch interviews with Horwath, and on almost every occasion, I recoil and can't watch any longer, she's so unable to grasp and define the task she's facing.

She keeps repeating: "I'm no Bob Rae". No kidding...she'd be lucky to have a fraction of his insight and experience. Wynne is right about her, Horwath had best rise to the occasion of showing leadership skills, but she appears to be at her level of incompetence already.

That being said, Ford is magnitudes worse, plus a wholly unlikable character. (I'm being diplomatic, or I'd type what I really think of him)

The debate is available on radio, ostensibly it won't constitute 'distracted driving' to listen to it:

There will be coverage across all platforms. Here's where you can watch and listen:

• CBC News Network at 6 p.m. ET (This will include a pre-show with the debate beginning at 6:30 p.m. ET).
• CBC Television in Ontario at 6 p.m. ET (This will also include a pre-show).
• CBC Radio One at 6:30 p.m. ET.
• Live streaming on CBC.ca/Toronto.
• CBC Toronto Facebook.
• Periscope.
• CBC News YouTube channel.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/how-to-watch-leaders-debate-may-27-1.4679033

I've learned to watch The National and other CBC shows Live on YouTube, since the CBC's servers are so incredibly buggy and limited.

 

[Admiral Beez]

I've got to take you to issue on using that analogy. We'd be freakin' lucky to have the competitive advantage of the Scans, let alone the standard of living, quality of life and education:

I agree. And that's where I think Wynne wants to take us. And I'd be 100% fine with that, and a big supporter of this aspirational goal.... provided she also presented the means to pay for it while putting and keeping Ontario in the black.

 

[JGHali]

Sweden has a 20% VAT. Not that that's a major problem. They still have malls and stores and commerce and restaurants and a private sector that spends way more on value-added R&D. They don't have many panhandlers though (I can't recall any). Public infrastructure is excellent and accessible. Population-wise Sweden is a bit smaller than Ontario.

On the other hand, you really can't get a good steak there.

 

[King of Kensington]

Mainstreet has released a bunch of riding polls today.

In Toronto Centre, the NDP are dominating, 45%-27%.

St. Paul's is surprisingly tight, with the Liberals and NDP basically tied at 33%.

Kathleen Wynne also has a 3 point lead over the PCs in Don Valley West, 39%-36%.

Scarborough SW has the NDP narrowly leading over the Tories, 38%-36%.

 

[steveintoronto]

On the other hand, you really can't get a good steak there

I'm sure they'd say the same about getting good Surströmming in Ontario.