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2018 Ontario Provincial Election Discussion

ADRM said:
Whether the PC party elites are successful in avoiding a DoFo win could very well come down to how the last few days of Elliott vs. Mulroney play out given that they're very likely to split the Never DoFo vote; if one of them sees the other as significantly more likely to win as the end approaches, I could see one dropping out and imploring their supporters to throw their votes behind the other lady so as to keep the populist at home in his mother's basement instead of at Queen's Park.
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Keep in mind Elliott and Ford are family friends. If an any allegiance is being formed itll be these two trying to have a family get together to celebrate In the basement. Not sure we have a girl power moment going here.
 
OneCity said:
Keep in mind Elliott and Ford are family friends. If an any allegiance is being formed itll be these two trying to have a family get together to celebrate In the basement. Not sure we have a girl power moment going here.
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It’s also an instant runoff so no value in dropping out and no risk of vote splitting.
 
OneCity said:
Keep in mind Elliott and Ford are family friends. If an any allegiance is being formed itll be these two trying to have a family get together to celebrate In the basement. Not sure we have a girl power moment going here.
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Elliott’s husband was a family friend. She may or may not be.
 
AlvinofDiaspar said:
Not even, she didn't even choose to run as a MPP first, but wanted to go straight in as party leader/premier. There is a certain arrogance in that.

AoD
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Yes, the arrogance itself being the answer to Trudeau. Like for like.

To be fair, she was set to be a candidate in this election whether or not this leadership campaign materialised out of nowhere late in the game. Why not take the opportunity? Maybe she'll fold after a while and support Elliott.
 
animatronic said:
There are four pools of voters:
  • 133,000 existing members (with past loyalty to Brown or Elliott)
  • Ford sign-ups
  • Elliott sign-ups
  • Mulroney sign-ups
And don't forget they are capped at 100 votes per riding. So if Doug was already going to get 80 votes in E-N, adding 1,000 members might only give him 10 incremental votes.

Each will get the support of their sign-ups. Here Doug ('ford nation') and Mulroney (federal machine) have the advantage. Also, both have active campaign teams in place. Elliott is much further behind, though she seems to be inheriting the Brown machinery.

For existing members, how many Brown supporters will Elliott and Ford capture? As for new members, while FN has its charms, I don't see him getting 5,000 members/day to balance out the existing population.

So let's generously assume Ford's signups beat the Elliott/Mulroney combined total by 30,000 new members (that requires 3,000-4,000 new members per day). Of the 133,000 current members lets say 80,000 show up to vote. For Ford to win he needs capture 25,501 of the 80,000 exiting voting members by the final ballot, or about 1/3. And if Ford's support is concentrated in a few 416/905 ridings he'll need even more to beat the electoral college effect.

The short race puts conventional wisdom in reverse. New sign ups are the first battle ground - the existing membership is where the winner is decided.
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I haven't thought that much about it,but it appears that in this system, the key is getting members in riding that the PC's have no chance of winning. Those ridings have few PC members, so a few sign ups gets you the majority of the riding.
 
BurlOak said:
I haven't thought that much about it,but it appears that in this system, the key is getting members in riding that the PC's have no chance of winning. Those ridings have few PC members, so a few sign ups gets you the majority of the riding.
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The only limiter is that ridings get a -maximum- of 100 points. If you have all 10 members lined up in a riding you only get 10 points.
 
John_Dee said:
I'm wondering if Ford will have the sheer hypocritical gall to rail against Mulroney's background, i.e. being part of an elitist political dynasty, conveniently ignoring (of course) that the exact same critique could be lodged against him.
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Not quite. It's not that you're rich, it's the way that you're rich. And Doug Ford fits the Fran Lebowitz spin on Trump: “He’s a poor person’s idea of a rich person. They see him. They think, ‘If I were rich, I’d have a fabulous tie like that. Why are my ties not made of 400 acres of polyester?’ All that stuff he shows you in his house—the gold faucets—if you won the lottery, that’s what you’d buy.”

Mulroney is Lewis Lapham's daughter-in-law. DoFo would be all Peggy Atwood-style "never heard of him" re Lapham.
 
adma said:
Not quite. It's not that you're rich, it's the way that you're rich. And Doug Ford fits the Fran Lebowitz spin on Trump: “He’s a poor person’s idea of a rich person. They see him. They think, ‘If I were rich, I’d have a fabulous tie like that. Why are my ties not made of 400 acres of polyester?’ All that stuff he shows you in his house—the gold faucets—if you won the lottery, that’s what you’d buy.”
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Oh, believe me, I know. I just find it humorous that their situations are technically similar, albeit Mulroney coming from the champagne end of the spectrum while Douggie-poo's "elitist political dynasty" is more of the cheap, home-brewed moonshine version. (I still laugh whenever I think of his harridan mother's Bizarro-Land delusions of her slackjaw clan being like a Canadian answer to the Kennedys!) Of course, like Trump, it's Ford's money that makes him a part of the Elite, even if only as a junior member. But his pretensions at speaking for 'the little guy' is just that. We all know he views the poor and working class/lower middle classes as props to discard once they've served their purpose.

Edited to add: Mulroney is married to Lewis Lapham's son? I didn't know that.
 
John_Dee said:
Edited to add: Mulroney is married to Lewis Lapham's son? I didn't know that.
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Yuuuuup, truth.

It's true, they are rather different in their elitist ranking.

Two sides of the gentry coin: Mulroney on the real and old money, usually decent people side; Ford on the lesser and newer money, usually obnoxious, arrogant, self-important side.
 
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