2018 Ontario Provincial Election Discussion

[steveintoronto]

Should be very interesting to watch as he's going to be a viable candidate for this reason.

Yeah...it must be remembered that Mulroney's first challenge isn't debating Wynne at all. It's 'putting Dougie in his place'. Her role as a mother of three might come in very handily.

Send him down to the basement! That in itself may pay off in spades as to her 'viability'. And that's going to be a hell of a lot easier than dealing with Wynne, who hated as she is, is a very capable party leader.

Perhaps send Doug to his 'Doughouse'.

 

[OneCity]

Yeah...it must be remembered that Mulroney's first challenge isn't debating Wynne at all. It's 'putting Dougie in his place'. Her role as a mother of three might come in very handily.

Send him down to the basement! That in itself may pay off in spades as to her 'viability'. And that's going to be a hell of a lot easier than dealing with Wynne, who hated as she is, is a very capable party leader.

Perhaps send Doug to his 'Doughouse'.

I don't think anything she says will matter to move voters. Ford votes cannot be swayed, voters really hate him or they really love him and most conservative voters know hat his brand represents. He either has enough votes already or not.

As for Mulroney she needs to fend off Elliott as It does seem the anti-Ford vote may form around her. Any votes split will impact her, but no so much Ford who base is fairly firm

 

[AlvinofDiaspar]

I never saw the big deal about Mulroney other than as the PC's response to Justin Trudeau.

Not even, she didn't even choose to run as a MPP first, but wanted to go straight in as party leader/premier. There is a certain arrogance in that.

AoD

 

[steveintoronto]

I don't think anything she says will matter. Ford votes cannot be swayed,

Agreed, but it's the *show* that matters. Ford is polling abysmally at this point, and ostensibly will remain 'in the basement' with his ilk.

Not even, she didn't even run as a MPP first, but wanted to go straight in as party leader/premier. There is a certain arrogance in that.

And what's wrong with allowing the party members to decide on that? That's not arrogance, it's ambition. If she can parlay that into votes, then she wins.

 

[steveintoronto]

This is notable...for better or worse:

Unlike Elliott and Ford, who want to scrap the PC carbon tax, Mulroney will stick with the party’s centrist “People’s Guarantee” manifesto unveiled last November.

https://www.thestar.com/news/queens...ficially-join-pc-race-monday-source-says.html

How arrogant is that? In the event, I hope she changes her position on that, at least to further clarify the *gist* of the manifesto. It's a wise move in terms of countering Wynne's position.

 

[animatronic]

I don't think anything she says will matter to move voters. Ford votes cannot be swayed, voters really hate him or they really love him and most conservative voters know hat his brand represents. He either has enough votes already or not.

As for Mulroney she needs to fend off Elliott as It does seem the anti-Ford vote may form around her. Any votes split will impact her, but no so much Ford who base is fairly firm

There are four pools of voters:

• 133,000 existing members (with past loyalty to Brown or Elliott)
• Ford sign-ups
• Elliott sign-ups
• Mulroney sign-ups

And don't forget they are capped at 100 votes per riding. So if Doug was already going to get 80 votes in E-N, adding 1,000 members might only give him 10 incremental votes.

Each will get the support of their sign-ups. Here Doug ('ford nation') and Mulroney (federal machine) have the advantage. Also, both have active campaign teams in place. Elliott is much further behind, though she seems to be inheriting the Brown machinery.

For existing members, how many Brown supporters will Elliott and Ford capture? As for new members, while FN has its charms, I don't see him getting 5,000 members/day to balance out the existing population.

So let's generously assume Ford's signups beat the Elliott/Mulroney combined total by 30,000 new members (that requires 3,000-4,000 new members per day). Of the 133,000 current members lets say 80,000 show up to vote. For Ford to win he needs capture 25,501 of the 80,000 exiting voting members by the final ballot, or about 1/3. And if Ford's support is concentrated in a few 416/905 ridings he'll need even more to beat the electoral college effect.

The short race puts conventional wisdom in reverse. New sign ups are the first battle ground - the existing membership is where the winner is decided.

 

[OneCity]

There are four pools of voters:

• 133,000 existing members (with past loyalty to Brown or Elliott)
• Ford sign-ups
• Elliott sign-ups
• Mulroney sign-ups

And don't forget they are capped at 100 votes per riding. So if Doug was already going to get 80 votes in E-N, adding 1,000 members might only give him 10 incremental votes.

Each will get the support of their sign-ups. Here Doug ('ford nation') and Mulroney (federal machine) have the advantage. Also, both have active campaign teams in place. Elliott is much further behind, though she seems to be inheriting the Brown machinery.

For existing members, how many Brown supporters will Elliott and Ford capture? While FN has its charms, I don't see him getting 5,000 members/day to balance out the existing population.

So let's generously assume Ford's signups beat the Elliott/Mulroney combined total by 30,000 new members (that requires 3,000-4,000 new members per day). Of the 133,000 current members lets say 80,000 show up to vote. For Ford to win he needs capture 25,001 of the 80,000 exiting voting members by the final ballot, or about 1/3. And if Ford's support is concentrated in a few 416/905 ridings he'll need even more to beat the electoral college effect.

The short race puts conventional wisdom in reverse. New sign ups are the first battle ground - the existing membership is where the winner is decided.

Solid post. Ford is likely out of the picture without Elliott involved

 

[animatronic]

Solid post. Ford is likely out of the picture without Elliott involved

That assumes, of course, that the 133,000 current members are real and will vote. If only 20,000 show up, it's a whole other ballgame.

This also means that any efforts to counter Ford need to happen with the existing membership, not trying to debate or sway the populists.

 

[steveintoronto]

^Excellent points. A lot hinges on this, in various ways:

Also, both have active campaign teams in place. Elliott is much further behind, though she seems to be inheriting the Brown machinery.

Mulroney's claim to "honour the Manifesto" might be nothing if an attempt so subvert the 'Party Faithful' support from Elliot. Ford has already disavowed that support, so it's a bit moot on his support numbers.

 

[MetroMan]

Wynne remains the most unpopular premier in Canada. All her excellent debating skills can't seem to budge the poll results.

Wynne’s biggest strength is not just her political savvy but her face to face interactions. At the beginning of this thread, I didn’t think she could get re-elected but in a chance encounter with Wynne, I saw her interactions with people and even those from the opposition seemed to genuinely like her. She’s very likeable in person — the exact opposite of what comes across on TV.

I was with a staunch Wynne critic. On the drive back, she was quiet for a while then couldn’t stop questioning what she “used to think about Wynne” until she met her just then.

A province wide campaign of door knocking could really change the minds of voters. Then of course, there’s the platform. There are a lot of regular people benefiting from the minimum wage increase and OHIP+. If the PCs propose reversing those policies, then people will vote to save them, regardless of who’s at the helm.

 

[MetroMan]

Mulroney just gave the Liberals their first “Caroline sound bite”:

"I've been doing this since September, and I know that I can lead the party"

https://t.co/1bPCFIOrxg

Wow, a whole 5 months of experience. Frankly, I think Wynne is going to mop the floor with Mulroney. She’s a total newbie and it shows.

 

[narduch]

I don't think Mulroney will win.

She's just trying to raise her profile.

I'm predicting a Ford win. In close races ranked ballots can have weird results.

 

[steveintoronto]

Mulroney just gave the Liberals their first “Caroline sound bite”:

"I've been doing this since September, and I know that I can lead the party"

https://t.co/1bPCFIOrxg

Wow, a whole 5 months of experience. Frankly, I think Wynne is going to mop the floor with Mulroney. She’s a total newbie and it shows.

I understand your point, but again, it must be kept in mind that the only reason Wynne won it for the Libs last time is because the alternatives were worse. Wynne's strengths don't count for much in the present polls, I don't see how that will change other than the slight uptick she had against Brown.

By that logic, and the understanding that Mulroney herself may not be as 'forceful' as Wynne in debates, and that Mulroney claims to "be her own person" apart from Dad, she has his team, and these are former heavyweights at the federal level, behind her.

No matter how you cut this, Brown was an even weaker debater than Mulroney could ever be on a bad day. And the polls indicated the election was his to lose, even if only by the smallest margin.

Btw: Many thanks for the heads-up on that link. That was a pretty good interview, he knew his stuff.

There's a post-script to this all now, and one of the most effective interviewers, Steve Paikin, might now be 'excused' from interviewing her. It remains to be seen.

 

[Mustapha]

I'm reading all this and my take is that it's really between Elliot the centrist and Ford the anti Establishment candidate, both experienced. This for the leadership contest as well as whichever one runs in the election.

As for Mulroney - I'm predicting a loss or withdrawal - during the leadership race. She seems like a nice lady but her candidacy reminds me of Caroline Kennedy's bid for a senate seat in 2009.

 

[ADRM]

I'm reading all this and my take is that it's really between Elliot the centrist and Ford the anti Establishment candidate, both experienced. This for the leadership contest as well as whichever one runs in the election.

As for Mulroney - I'm predicting a loss or withdrawal - during the leadership race. She seems like a nice lady but her candidacy reminds me of Caroline Kennedy's bid for a senate seat in 2009.

Whether the PC party elites are successful in avoiding a DoFo win could very well come down to how the last few days of Elliott vs. Mulroney play out given that they're very likely to split the Never DoFo vote; if one of them sees the other as significantly more likely to win as the end approaches, I could see one dropping out and imploring their supporters to throw their votes behind the other lady so as to keep the populist at home in his mother's basement instead of at Queen's Park.