2018 Ontario Provincial Election Discussion

[steveintoronto]

After pausing to reflect, I'll post 2 messages, this one omitting the politics.

***

I find this sad. No matter the veracity of the allegations, on which I cast no doubt.

Should the allegations, be the unvarnished truth, (or even worse come out); its sad for those who are or feel victimized; its sad for those who care for Mr. Brown; and needless to say, if deservedly so, the man himself.

Should they turn out to be less than the unvarnished truth, given the damage they will have done; and the damage that would do to future victims, that too would be awful.

In this moment, there is nothing to gloat about, nothing to take pleasure in, only time, evidence and history will establish the details not yet known.

I had a post along those lines prepared, and dumped it, as it was based on the FT's 'exposé' that is galvanizing the UK Establishment at this time. Non-paywall coverage here:
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-42810568

Note there *is* another side to the story, and that concerns "willing participants*!
I'm not going to get into that aspect in this forum, save that the above story made it to the Cdn headlines via wire copy. Here's the point as it pertains to this case with Brown:

He handled it terribly, Pink Lucy nailed it. Should have issued a statement, preferably from a legal team familiar with PR. Surely the OntCons have someone retained for that?

The public is losing the 'shock value' of these wholesale allegations. Do not get me wrong! They're wrong and rampant. Huge surprise there. People in power can be pigs.

But played correctly, and with a good team of advisers/lawyers, Brown could have come out looking good on this. Again, I'm not saying that's right or wrong, just that the Public's outrage is starting to wane in these cases.

At what point are the accusers responsible for their own actions? One of the greatest pushbacks is going to come from women, and you'll see this happening in the UK female establishment first. The males are too busy falling over each other pretending to be shocked.

Bear this in mind! Wynne and Horwath are just as vulnerable. This could be the beginning of 'dirty politics' US style in Ontario. If anyone thinks Wynne especially isn't vulnerable to claims like this, think again.

 

[Northern Light]

All I'm saying is that you seemingly can't be a conservative male politician these days and not be accused of impropriety. And having several months of 'scandal' lingering in the public consciousness will definitely help the Left. The campaign will no longer be about policy now.

Did you miss the bit where Adam Giambrone dropped out of the Mayor's race for alleged sexual impropriety?

These things can and do catch folks of all political stripes.

In broad strokes, they are more likely to affect men, and probably men of an older generation too; though the latter can't be said in terms of Brown or Giambrone really.

Don't read too much politics in this, at least prematurely; even if it does have a substantial political impact.

It does a disservice to all involved.

 

[PinkLucy]

One thing I will say (even though we dont know if the allegations are true or not) is that it's a shame people are telling the man to resign even when investigations haven't been complete. Essentially it's the ongoing trend of guilty before being proven innocent, and this can tarnish someone's image for the rest of their lives.

Former Premier David Peterson was accused of sexual misconduct in 2015-2016 and the accuser essentially said that he "flirted with her" to and that it progressed to "unwanted hugging" during the 2015 Pan Am Games. The judge threw the case out since it was just non-sense. Now imagine if he were running for premier, he would have been torched by the media and his caucus unfairly for bogus allegations.

While yes, some of these sexual assault/misconduct cases should be taken seriously, others are just outright bogus cases right off the bat. People these days seem to miss that point and the accused is often seen as guilty automatically by the public.

These allegations are much more serious. He needs to resign because it is hurting the party to stay on in the face of the current allegations. His staff is quitting. His focus is being taken away from his leadership role, and he can’t run an effective campaign. There are no good reasons for him to stay.

 

[Amare]

One thing I dont understand about all these accusations in general, is why arent complaints ever filed before the allegations come out?

In these two cases against Brown, neither of the two women filled a complaint to police, or any kind of authority. Shame or no shame, if something is wrong and you're old enough to know it, one would complain about it in general. If a complaint was filled and nothing was done about it, or it was ignored that's another matter altogether. Add to the fact that one of the accusers returned to work in Brown's office after the alleged incident, their accusations could easily be discredited as being "opportunists".

@PinkLucy While I agree the allegations are hurting his party, but if the PC's knew about it way before they came out before tonight like is being claimed, why didnt they try and push him out earlier? It just doesnt add up at all.

 

[PinkLucy]

The public is losing the 'shock value' of these wholesale allegations. Do not get me wrong! They're wrong and rampant. Huge surprise there. People in power can be pigs.

But played correctly, and with a good team of advisers/lawyers, Brown could have come out looking good on this. Again, I'm not saying that's right or wrong, just that the Public's outrage is starting to wane in these cases.

At what point are the accusers responsible for their own actions? One of the greatest pushbacks is going to come from women, and you'll see this happening in the UK female establishment first. The males are too busy falling over each other pretending to be shocked.

Bear this in mind! Wynne and Horwath are just as vulnerable. This could be the beginning of 'dirty politics' US style in Ontario. If anyone thinks Wynne especially isn't vulnerable to claims like this, think again.

The age of the accusers is the renewed shock value here.

 

[PinkLucy]

One thing I dont understand about all these accusations in general, is why arent complaints ever filed before the allegations come out?

In these two cases against Brown, neither of the two women filled a complaint to police, or any kind of authority. Shame or no shame, if something is wrong and you're old enough to know it, one would complain about it in general. If a complaint was filled and nothing was done about it, or it was ignored that's another matter altogether. Add to the fact that one of the accusers returned to work in Brown's office after the alleged incident, their accusations could easily be discredited as being "opportunists".

Have you ever been a woman who had something happen such as the accusations that we are reading about tonight? You don’t go running to file a complaint and sometimes you go back to work. That has been the problem for years with men in positions of power. For far too long women have kept quiet, fearing the repercussions if they speak out, the shame and not being believed. Fortunately, that is changing.

 

[MetroMan]

Disagree. Wynne will likely go more towards the Centre and take many fringe Right voters. Lots more to gain for the Liberals. Its over.

Actually, you're right. That does make more sense. Wynne will fill Brown's place and Horwath might move closer to the centre.

Still, I don't see where Toronto is going to lose with an NDP vs Liberal race. I think that Relief Line funding is forthcoming regardless of where this election goes.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

One thing I dont understand about all these accusations in general, is why arent complaints ever filed before the allegations come out?

In these two cases against Brown, neither of the two women filled a complaint to police, or any kind of authority. Shame or no shame, if something is wrong and you're old enough to know it, one would complain about it in general. If a complaint was filled and nothing was done about it, or it was ignored that's another matter altogether. Add to the fact that one of the accusers returned to work in Brown's office after the alleged incident, their accusations could easily be discredited as being "opportunists".

@PinkLucy While I agree the allegations are hurting his party, but if the PC's knew about it way before they came out before tonight like is being claimed, why didnt they try and push him out earlier? It just doesnt add up at all.

The overwhelming majority of women in these situations will not file a complaint. They won’t want to go through the trouble for various and perfectly legitimate reasons.

But seeing that this man could have become Premier, I understand why they’d be compelled to talk now. I don’t imagine they’d be too pleased seeing their abuser win the election.

 

[OneCity]

These allegations are much more serious. He needs to resign because it is hurting the party to stay on in the face of the current allegations. His staff is quitting. His focus is being taken away from his leadership role, and he can’t run an effective campaign. There are no good reasons for him to stay.

I agree he has to resign. There's too much smoke with his behavior and his body language tonight emphasized this. As you said this was a really bad move. Although on the surface these don't seem to be very strong allegations. One accuser kept working long after and he drove her home after a failed attempt at sex (again her story). Likely true but not seeing much of a case here? The second could have a case if there is a recording, otherwise its he said-she said after a night of excessive drinking by two "adults". Not that I don't believe her, but if there was solid proof it would surprise me if it was just held in secrecy, Well see. Maybe more allegations to come? Very possible, he did look genuinely scared tonight and if it was a hoax this is no the way one would address it.

 

[Northern Light]

Actually, you're right. That does make more sense. Wynne will fill Brown's place and Horwath might move closer to the centre.

Still, I don't see where Toronto is going to lose with an NDP vs Liberal race. I think that Relief Line funding is forthcoming regardless of where this election goes.

I'm going to say two things here.

The first is that funding for the Relief line is widely anticipated by March as that's when the Feds have set as a deadline for round 2 infrastructure funding; after using round 1 to fund the Relief Line to 30% design.

***

The second is, while I know there are political impacts from this, even if those are not fully known as yet; I would ask that everyone refrain from drawing conclusions of 'benefit' at this juncture.

Even were it to end up being provably true, it strikes me as being not in the best of taste on night one.

I cast no aspersions, I understand the impulse.........but...

 

[MetroMan]

This is just the first shoe to drop. More to come. This will be an at least 6 month trial in the court of public opinion. There are 4 months left until the election. I don't see any way that the PC's let him remain their candidate.

 

[Amare]

Have you ever been a woman who had something happen such as the accusations that we are reading about tonight? You don’t go running to file a complaint and sometimes you go back to work. That has been the problem for years with men in positions of power. For far too long women have kept quiet, fearing the repercussions if they speak out, the shame and not being believed. Fortunately, that is changing.

Dont get me wrong i'm not trying to discredit the allegations, what my point was is that one of the accusers went back to work at Brown's office the following summer, a year after the incident. It was not a full-time, permanent continual job. It was a summer job and the incident happened during the summer of Year 1 after which she left. She returned to work at Brown's office in the summer of Year 2 out of her own volition.

Again i'm not trying to discredit the allegations, i'm merely pointing out the facts which the one of accusers pointed out. It's the fact that she returned in Year 2 that's the questionable part.

 

[MetroMan]

The second is, while I know there are political impacts from this, even if those are not fully known as yet; I would ask that everyone refrain from drawing conclusions of 'benefit' at this juncture.

Even were it to end up being provably true, it strikes me as being not in the best of taste on night one.

I cast no aspersions, I understand the impulse.........but...

I get your point but of course we're going to discuss the political implications of the leading candidate in an election suddenly being on the verge of leaving his spot vacant. This thread is about Wynne's chances at being re-elected and I think it's a perfectly legitimate discussion. We can empathize with the victims while also discussing political repercussions. They're not mutually exclusive.

 

[OneCity]

I get your point but of course we're going to discuss the political implications of the leading candidate in an election suddenly being on the verge of leaving his spot vacant. This thread is about Wynne's chances at being re-elected and I think it's a perfectly legitimate discussion. We can empathize with the victims while also discussing political repercussions. They're not mutually exclusive.

There is no question Wynnes chances went up tonight. No question.

 

[PinkLucy]

Dont get me wrong i'm not trying to discredit the allegations, what my point was is that one of the accusers went back to work at Brown's office the following summer, a year after the incident. It was not a full-time, permanent continual job. It was a summer job and the incident happened during the summer of Year 1 after which she left. She returned to work at Brown's office in the summer of Year 2 out of her own volition.

Again i'm not trying to discredit the allegations, i'm merely pointing out the facts which the one of accusers pointed out. It's the fact that she returned in Year 2 that's the questionable part.

For the same reasons actresses continued to work with Harvey Weinstein and actors with Kevin Spacey.