2018 Ontario Provincial Election Discussion

[christiesplits]

New life for Andrea Horwath and the NDP?

 

[MetroMan]

This could really hurt Toronto. I had hopes for big promises from the Liberals in a tough fight. I think the Liberals just have to show up now and do nothing more.

He'll likely have to step down

I think it might actually end up being the first campaign in a generation where there's a legitimate NDP + Liberal race. Horwath, as the other female candidate running in this election, is going to get a megaphone on this subject.

With both progressive candidates left standing, I think this might actually help Toronto and draw Wynne further to the left.

 

[Admiral Beez]

We'll see.

I omitted the PC tendency to self destruct before the election. The PCs haven't fielded a winnable candidate since Harris' victory in the closing years of the last century. Looking at Brown, I'd say it's 50/50 he steps on his own tail while apparently ahead, and gives the win to Wynne.

We’ll said I.

 

[PinkLucy]

His press secretary also resigned

 

[OneCity]

I think it might actually end up being the first campaign in a generation where there's a legitimate NDP + Liberal race. Horwath, as the other female candidate running in this election, is going to get a megaphone on this subject.

With both progressive candidates left standing, I think this might actually help Toronto and draw Wynne further to the left.

Disagree. Wynne will likely go more towards the Centre and take many fringe Right voters. Lots more to gain for the Liberals. Its over.

 

[christiesplits]

Brian Platt of The National Post:

I can say for sure that multiple news organizations have been investigating allegations about Patrick Brown for months. There may be more news to come in the following days.

According to Jonathan Goldsbie, the Liberal Party had heard the rumors and their electoral campaign more or less banked on the allegations coming out before June.

 

[steveintoronto]

According to Jonathan Goldsbie, the Liberal Party had heard the rumors and their electoral campaign more or less banked on the allegations coming out before June.

Curious, if correct, then one wonders why it took this long to break, and if it was buried, who broke it and why?

Some retrospect:

Wynne sues Brown for $100K in libel action | Toronto Star
https://www.thestar.com › News › Queen's Park
Dec 11, 2017 - Premier Kathleen Wynne is suing Progressive Conservative Leader Patrick Brown for libel and seeking $100000 in damages from her main political rival. ... Wynne's lawyers say that was “false and defamatory” and because the premier “was not on trial for bribery and has not been investigated by the police

 

[OneCity]

Will Christine Elliott step in? Almost guaranteed it will be a female leader who takes over for the PC's down the home stretch.

 

[Northern Light]

After pausing to reflect, I'll post 2 messages, this one omitting the politics.

***

I find this sad. No matter the veracity of the allegations, on which I cast no doubt.

Should the allegations, be the unvarnished truth, (or even worse come out); its sad for those who are or feel victimized; its sad for those who care for Mr. Brown; and needless to say, if deservedly so, the man himself.

Should they turn out to be less than the unvarnished truth, given the damage they will have done; and the damage that would do to future victims, that too would be awful.

In this moment, there is nothing to gloat about, nothing to take pleasure in, only time, evidence and history will establish the details not yet known.

 

[steveintoronto]

Don't count the Cons out yet! Just as this came out of the blue (so we're to believe), then other nasty head-shots and high-sticking can knock the others out too.

This might have been a palace coup against Brown. He couldn't win!

 

[Amare]

One thing I will say (even though we dont know if the allegations are true or not) is that it's a shame people are telling the man to resign even when investigations haven't been complete. Essentially it's the ongoing trend of guilty before being proven innocent, and this can tarnish someone's image for the rest of their lives.

Former Premier David Peterson was accused of sexual misconduct in 2015-2016 and the accuser essentially said that he "flirted with her" to and that it progressed to "unwanted hugging" during the 2015 Pan Am Games. The judge threw the case out since it was just non-sense. Now imagine if he were running for premier, he would have been torched by the media and his caucus unfairly for bogus allegations.

While yes, some of these sexual assault/misconduct cases should be taken seriously, others are just outright bogus cases right off the bat. People these days seem to miss that point and the accused is often seen as guilty automatically by the public.

 

[BurlOak]

Not an issue to gloat about in a partisan way.

Alykhan Velshi‏@avelshi
Joint statement from Andrew Boddington, Alykhan Velshi (@avelshi), and Dan Robertson (@pdrobertson)
https://twitter.com/avelshi/status/956359197330890752

If both your Campaign Manager and Deputy CM plus your CoS resign over this, it is probably much bigger than mere innuendos.

AoD

I would suspect that PC senior staff, in hindsight, may have thought they should have replaced Hudak when he was not able to win the Scarborough riding when "subway champion" Mitzi Hunter won. At that time, they could have replaced Hudak in August, with a convention November, and ready for an election any time in 2014. Even though the Liberals had a minority at the time, the PC's wouldn't have brought down the Liberals until 2014 anyway, and the Liberals would have looked too opportunistic if they pulled the plug on themselves when the PCs were leaderless.

This time, I imagine the same thought process was considered. With Brown gone, maybe have a mini-leadership convention in a months time - only current members can vote. There is no way to combat sexual harassment allegations and stepping down was the only option.

 

[Northern Light]

In respect of the politics; it seems most unlikely Mr. Brown will lead the Tories into the campaign ahead, his desires notwithstanding.

Should he choose to do so, it seems all but impossible the PCs will win, or even finish 2nd.

***

That said, I think it would be too soon to take at face that the PCs have met their demise. Given a relatively Red Tory platform; should a new leader come forward who is a capable, and charismatic spokesperson, I would not rule out their victory, however less likely it seems today.

But certainly, this is a deep body blow to them, and has the appearance of creating a 2-horse race to which the PCs are not a party (excuse the pun).

I really don't feel like have a clear sightline on the full impact yet.

The days ahead will surely be interesting.

 

[narduch]

They probably won't even have time for a convention. The caucus will have to pick a leader.

I've been skimming Twitter and apparently this story was an open secret in Barrie. My guess is Brown's staffers were already aware of this and hoped it wouldn't come to light.

 

[Hopkins123]

Really? Think about what you're saying for a second. When do you think they'd want to drop this kind of bomb if they wanted to make a serious dent in Patrick Brown? 5 months before the election when the PCs have a chance to replace their candidate or right in the middle of the election?

You haven't even heard anything at all about the accusations and you've already made up your mind? GTFO.

All I'm saying is that you seemingly can't be a conservative male politician these days and not be accused of impropriety. And having several months of 'scandal' lingering in the public consciousness will definitely help the Left. The campaign will no longer be about policy now.