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2018 Municipal Election: Toronto Council Races

How many non-incumbent winners will there be on council?

  • Total voters
    22
  • Poll closed .
MetroMan said:
Well, what we do know is that the NDP had been running Ausma Malik’s campaign. This wasn’t her campaign to begin with. She had been being groomed for the position for 5 years and had the rug pulled from under her despite Cressy going on about the need for diversity in Council. There was never any question that she would have to yield to Cressy.
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I find it very interesting that the NDP preach diversity yet they are running 3 white guys in the west end. (Cressy, Layton, Perks).
 
Richard White said:
Layton is a given, Perks is so far left it's not funny..
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Unfortunately there are too many candidates going up against Perks and they will most likely split the vote and give him the win. And Doucette gave him an endorsement and she was well liked in her riding. Perks talks a good game at council but after 12 years not sure how much he has actually achieved and he doesn't get along that well with Tory so no deals to be made in Parkdale/High Park.
 
MetroMan said:
I’ve done some back of the napkin math and I can foresee a scenario in which both the Scarborough subway and the Gardiner East rebuild are scrapped and the Yonge St redesign with bike lanes is passed, even under John Tory as Mayor. All 3 were very close votes.

This is counting on Matlow beating Mihevc, Perruzza ousting Mammoliti, Kristyn Wong Tam overcoming Smitherman, Shelley Carroll and Fillion retaining their seats, Mike Colle removing Tory lackey Carmichael-Greg, Augimeri winning instead of Pasternak and a dipper like Matthew Kellway defeating Tory’s pick Brad Bradford in the Beach.

It would help if David Caplan removes Denzil Minnan-Wong and if unpredictable Conservative Campbell takes out reliable Tory supporter Holyday.

As the closest to the middle, Ana Bailao will likely be the kingmaker in an evenly divided council, which explains why Tory is bringing her into his circle as his second in command. While Bailao may not be the swing vote on every important issue, as a centrist, she’s able to whip support. But if a few of the tossup races go left, Tory could lose big votes that were close in the last Council.
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I think most of them are realistic. However, I do not see Augemeri beating Pasternak. A good portion of her stronghold was put into Humberriver Black Creek where Peruzza is running and he is benefiting hugely off that. The rest of the area is strongly Pasternak so Augemeri will struggle heavily. I don't think you mentioned it but I'm hearing Felicia Samuel is doing very well out in Scar so that would be another big win
 
Christina Liu (sex ed opponent, now running for council in Ward 17) is now touting the endorsement of Mel Lastman on signs (that are way too detailed to be taken in while people are driving by at 40 kph). Even walking by them, you have to squint and realize who that old guy with the candidate is.

(Full disclosure: my wife is also a candidate in the same ward, running for councillor.)
 
I have to concur with what others have said: Mihevc is positioning himself as a controllable-progressive. He is okay with being a tabby cat for Tory, just so long as he gets a taste of the cream.

The Scarborough subway being turfed next term will rely significantly on Matlow being re-elected. He might well force some councillors who would prefer to let sleeping dogs lie to take a position, especially when a clearer cost estimate comes in.
 
Having walked through a lot of the area between Dundas and Queen, Spadina and Trinity Bellwoods park, I didn't see any Vuong signs at all. Sabrina Zuniga seems to be the second place candidate. This area has a large Chinese population, particularly the further away you get from the park.

Of course 85% of the ward is condoland so maybe Vuong is doing better there?
 
King of Kensington said:
Having walked through a lot of the area between Dundas and Queen, Spadina and Trinity Bellwoods park, I didn't see any Vuong signs at all. Sabrina Zuniga seems to be the second place candidate. This area has a large Chinese population, particularly the further away you get from the park.

Of course 85% of the ward is condoland so maybe Vuong is doing better there?
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Who really cares about Zuniga or Vuong as second place candidates? Cressy will win this ward hands down and everyone knows it.
 
Teresa Flanagan said:
Who really cares about Zuniga or Vuong as second place candidates? Cressy will win this ward hands down and everyone knows it.
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Cressy got lucky that we were not using ranked ballots. There are a lot of people who are annoyed at him on both the progressive side and the conservative side. He may have lost if there were less candidates.
 
I don't think there is a "Cressy vs Vuong" narrative. The best outcome that Vuong can hope for is some name recognition for future political purposes.
 
King of Kensington said:
Having walked through a lot of the area between Dundas and Queen, Spadina and Trinity Bellwoods park, I didn't see any Vuong signs at all. Sabrina Zuniga seems to be the second place candidate. This area has a large Chinese population, particularly the further away you get from the park.

Of course 85% of the ward is condoland so maybe Vuong is doing better there?
Click to expand...

There’s a strategic reason for that and you’re on the right track. An incumbent with all the advantages that grants them, isn’t going to be defeated by playing the same game. It calls for innovative strategies and an unconventional campaign.
 
Well the NDP got pretty much an identical share of the vote in Spadina-Fort York and University-Rosedale in the provincial election. Between Cressy and Layton it'll be interesting to see if the more "likeable" Layton ends up with a significantly higher vote share. Cressy has a lot of opponents running, but he also has less "non-incumbency" territory than Layton does.
 
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