2018 Municipal Election: Toronto Council Races

[christiesplits]

Update on Beaches-EY, I got a live call tonight to see if I supported Brad Bradford.

Not unusual unto itself. Notable, not from volunteers but a pro research firm.

Hardly unheard of, but for a candidate w/no previous recognition and polling a distant 2nd last I saw......... very curious.

Bradford has the big guns behind him. Pretty sure the call was from Kouvalis's Campaign Research, which is tied to Tory.

Apparently Bradford has Kouvalis and Warren Kinsella, and former right wing councillors-turned-lobbyists Chris Korwin-Kuczynski and Tom Jakobek (Beaches native) are working behind the scenes too. It's a stark contrast to his progressive, community-oriented approach in his early campaign.

It will be a super tight race between him and Matt Kellway.

 

[Northern Light]

Bradford has the big guns behind him. Pretty sure the call was from Kouvalis's Campaign Research, which is tied to Tory.

Apparently Bradford has Kouvalis, Warren Kinsella, and former right wing councillors-turned-lobbyists Chris Korwin-Kuczynski and Tom Jakobek (Beaches native) are working behind the scenes too. It's a stark contrast to his progressive, community-oriented approach in his early campaign.

Mayor holding a presser this morning @ Main Street Stn with guess who right over his shoulder, Brad Bradford.

He was given mic time as the Mayor's new prospective point man on the Relief Line.

 

[christiesplits]

Congrats MetroMan, you called it:

@stephaniesmyth
#BREAKING #Toronto election news John Tory decides to endorse Joe Mihevc for Councillor in Toronto-St. Paul's over Josh Matlow. Robo calls going out in the riding now #topoli

Interesting strategy by Tory. I feel like Mihevc is going to be the 'token' progressive in his inner-circle, sort of like the way McConnell was, to try and seem like he's offering an olive branch. Also similar to David Miller when he picked David Soknacki as budget chief.

 

[Avenue]

And endorsement by John Tory is a direct equivalent to selling your soul to the devil. I was torn between the two but now it's clear. Mihevc needs to go away.

 

[christiesplits]

And endorsement by John Tory is a direct equivalent to selling your soul to the devil. I was torn between the two but now it's clear. Mihevc needs to go away.

It will be interesting to see what impact his endorsement will have. For instance, he endorsed Burnside in 2014, and he beat Parker, but he also endorsed Liz West against Paula Fletcher, but Fletcher won handedly.

 

[Thorns_Embrace]

It will be interesting to see what impact his endorsement will have. For instance, he endorsed Burnside in 2014, and he beat Parker, but he also endorsed Liz West against Paula Fletcher, but Fletcher won handedly.

I do not really remember the Liz west endorsement, at least there was no "public endorsement".
He endorsed Carmichael Greb and she won(although a very close race)

 

[MetroMan]

MM, I will be STUNNED if Tory publicly endorses Mihevc, even though JT and Matlow clearly do not get along. Mihevc is too NDP for JT's taste, and has a worse voting record supporting JT than Matlow.

Are you STUNNED @mjl08?

Despite being an NDP’er, Mihevc will play John Tory’s lapdog in exchange for being appointed TTC Chair. Ana Bailao will do Tory’s bidding in exchange for Deputy Mayor. John Tory can count on centre/leftist Brad Bradford’s support in council in exchange for Tory’s endorsement in a race where he’d otherwise lose and an appointment to the DRL file.

I have a longer list but unfortunately can’t release it. What I can tell you is that John Tory understands that under a 25 ward council, power is shifting left, and so he’s making a wise play to secure the votes of centre/leftists.

The good news is that John Tory’s “inner circle” will be way more progressive than in his first term. The bad news is that John Tory is assembling an iron clad grip on City Council.

 

[Thorns_Embrace]

So the Thorns_Embrace 100% accurate John Tory list of candidates in each ward:

Ward 1: No endorsement, lukewarm with both Crisanti and Ford
Ward 2: He prefers Campbell put will not put in effort in campaigning for him over Holyday
Ward 3: Grimes
Ward 4: No serious endorsement since Perks has no serious challenger
Ward 5: Prefers Nunziata due to being a more likely winner over left wing challengers
Ward 6: Pasternak
Ward 7: Perruzza with the surprise left wing endorsement(may not be officially endorsed) potentially may want Sgro
Ward 8: Prefers Carmichael-Greb but will not officially endorse to stay in Colle's good books
Ward 9: Bailao
Ward 10: Kevin Vuong
Ward 11: Will allow Layton to win without endorsing another candidate
Ward 12: Mihevc(already endorsed)
Ward 13: Troisi(will not officially endorse to avoid controversy)
Ward 14: The very surprising (probably unofficial) Fletcher endorsement. There was some speculation that he was unofficially campaigning in her area last month
Ward 15: Doesn't care if Burnside or Robinson wins
Ward 16: Minnan-Wong
Ward 17: Anyone but Carroll(probably prefers Ken Lister but will endorse best candidate)
Ward 18: David Mousavi
Ward 19: Bradford(already endorsed)
Ward 20: Prefers Crawford but doesn't care if Holland wins instead
Ward 21: Thompson
Ward 22: Kelly
Ward 23: Maggie Chi
Ward 24: Ainslie
Ward 25: McKelvie

Then again I have been wrong about a lot. I have a bit of inside info in a Scarborough ward however I do not want to reveal to much for similar reasons to metroman. I will just say that there are definitely some shenanigans going on and people are hiding information.

 

[King of Kensington]

I'll take the honest liberal Matlow over the very compromised "social democrat" Mihevc.

 

[King of Kensington]

Mel Lastman too!

https://twitter.com/joemihevc/status/1050515976268046336

 

[adma]

I drove by his house this morning and it's official: Premier Ford has an Angelo Carlevale sign (not Holyday, not Campbell) on his front lawn.

 

[facepalming_brooklynite]

Ward 4: No serious endorsement since Perks has no serious challenger

I don't know that that premise is true. There are a lot of David Ginsberg signs in both the Roncesvalles and the Bloor West areas. Of course, lawn sign counting is far from an accurate science, but I think there is a substantial feeling of discontent with Perks in the gentrified parts of the ward (and I'm sure there are developers happy to fund anyone running against Perks -- I wonder what it costs to rent that campaign office on Roncy)

 

[Teresa Flanagan]

Absolutely a dirty business but its still important to call out this crap when you see it. Dont forget this is the Joe Cressy who bemoans lack of diversity in council but has no problem asking Ausma Malik and now Kevin Voung to drop out. Its clear he is protecting his hide and thats perfectly fine but that also needs to be publicized.

We really don't know if Malik was asked to drop out or if she knew it was a waste of time, energy and money to run against an incumbent.

 

[MetroMan]

We really don't know if Malik was asked to drop out or if she knew it was a waste of time, energy and money to run against an incumbent.

Well, what we do know is that the NDP had been running Ausma Malik’s campaign. This wasn’t her campaign to begin with. She had been being groomed for the position for 5 years and had the rug pulled from under her despite Cressy going on about the need for diversity in Council. There was never any question that she would have to yield to Cressy.

 

[MetroMan]

I’ve done some back of the napkin math and I can foresee a scenario in which both the Scarborough subway and the Gardiner East rebuild are scrapped and the Yonge St redesign with bike lanes is passed, even under John Tory as Mayor. All 3 were very close votes.

This is counting on Matlow beating Mihevc, Perruzza ousting Mammoliti, Kristyn Wong Tam overcoming Smitherman, Shelley Carroll and Fillion retaining their seats, Mike Colle removing Tory lackey Carmichael-Greg, Augimeri winning instead of Pasternak and a dipper like Matthew Kellway defeating Tory’s pick Brad Bradford in the Beach.

It would help if David Caplan removes Denzil Minnan-Wong and if unpredictable Conservative Campbell takes out reliable Tory supporter Holyday.

As the closest to the middle, Ana Bailao will likely be the kingmaker in an evenly divided council, which explains why Tory is bringing her into his circle as his second in command. While Bailao may not be the swing vote on every important issue, as a centrist, she’s able to whip support. But if a few of the tossup races go left, Tory could lose big votes that were close in the last Council.