A new pack of polls just came out. First Oracle, I haven't counted their polls this year because they were not involved in the 2011 election so not sure how credible they are. But they have PC 36, Lib 35, NDP 24. The interesting thing is a couple of weeks ago they had the PC up by 4 (36-32). The daily Ekos has came in and the Liberal slide seems to have stopped, it's now PC & Libs at 36% with NDP 18% (yesterday the PC were up by 2, 36-44) The big news of the day is Abacus (who was the second best pollster in 2011) they came out today with Lib 34, PC 31, NDP 28. (they did have the Libs up by 7, 37-30 a couple of weeks ago) The big news here is that the NDP is in striking distance of the second place PC, not sure if I buy that, but it certainly startling.
Newest poll numberst Ranked by 2011 success
Forum (Jun 5) Libs 39^... PC 37^... NDP 17v... Grn 6^
Abacus (Jun 7) Libs 34v... PC 31^... NDP 28^... Grn 5v
Nanos (May 26) Libs 38..... PC 31.... NDP 24..... Grn 5
Ekos (Jun 8) Libs 36^... PC 36^... NDP 18v... Grn 8^
Ipsos (Jun 6) Libs 35^... PC 35v... NDP 26^... Oth 4v
There seems to be a similarity trend with the Libs up by 2 (with the more credible 2011 pollsters) and being tied with the ones with worse record. The NDP number is all over the place though. You have credible Abacus & decent Ekos saying they are nose-diving under 20%. While you have the best pollster Forum and worse pollster Ipsos saying they are surging over 25%. The only thing I can think of is that the NDP is diving hard in Toronto but raising in other popular NDP spots. But it is hard to understand that. I currently predicting Libs with 37%, PC with 34 or 35, NDP with 21 or 22, and Green with 6%
The funniest Data political BS data story analysis of the day has to go with the report that there was 60,000 less votes in advance polls. Which some right-wingers quickly said that's "advantage PC" because Conservatives are more motivated so small turn out is good because Conservative have loyal voters. Then it was brought up that advance polls were open for just 7 days and not the previous election 10, which makes it more 10,000 more voter per day in this year advanced election, which Ford enabler Towhey quickly says "Advantage PC" because it means people are motivated for change lol. It just shows anybody can spin numbers any partisan way they can. I will admit I have no idea if this year will be higher or not. The total numbers are lower so far in advanced poll, but would there be more votes if it was open for another couple of days, I don't know. You can spin it both ways actually,there is no knowing. In general I've heard two possibility about low turn out, the low turn-out helps Conservatives because they are more "hard-core voters" and general voters would probably vote left-of-centre. I also heard that low turnout helps the incumbents. So who knows.