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2014 Municipal Election: Toronto Transit Plans

Greg Sorbara wants his YorkU empire to expand to Markham beside the Stouffville line, so I don't think betting against service and infrastructure increases are wise (irrespective of how good bad or indifferent those are in the big picture, like his soonish to be loss making subway north of Steeles).
 

polls always have outliers, and the media loves to play them up. Generally a good strategy with polling is to average them out, and if you do that you get a pretty strong lead for Tory. 8-10% usually. Threehundredeight.com, which is sort of the canadian version of Fivethirtyeight.com, tends to be rather accurate at predicting who wins (for the provincial election it guessed the liberals would win 54 seats, they won 58, in quebec it guessed 69, they won 70, etc.) , and is giving Tory an 11 point lead right now.
 
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polls always have outliers, and the media loves to play them up. Generally a good strategy with polling is to average them out, and if you do that you get a pretty strong lead for Tory. 8-10% usually. Threehundredeight.com, which is sort of the canadian version of Fivethirtyeight.com, tends to be rather accurate at predicting who wins, and is giving Tory an 11 point lead right now.

And hasn't been updated since September 30th. This poll will definitely bring them closer than 11 points.

I'd hardly say 308 is accurate at predicting wins too. It's been off quite a bit. The good news is that Forum polls are usually what throws 308 off.
 
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one poll doesn't mean Tory suddenly lost an 11 point lead, losing an 11 point lead in less than 6 days would have to be a new record and would require a lot more to occur in the election than what has happened since September ended. swings that large don't just happen.

For Tory not to win at this point he would have to seriously F*ck up, and hard. Hes got a huge, huge lead by all indicators. Mainstreet polling just released a poll today showing Ford at 28% and Tory at 42%, and they have been consistently showing higher numbers for ford than other pollsters for the entire election.

One poll does not change the whole election, there are outliers, and when a poll is showing results so drastically different than what everything else is saying, its probably a good idea to take it with a grain of salt.
 
I don't disagree with you. I don't discount the need for buses, streetcars and a medium haul solution like LRT and subways. The problem as I see it, is one of priorities. The reason people so easily fall for the rhetoric of guys like Rob Ford, is because they are desperate for someone to speed up their commutes. Not by 10 minutes. But by 30 minutes. Speeding up your local transit won't do that. Improving the long-haul network will. GO electrification and/or Smart Track won't just increase transit usage. I'm betting you'll actually see more public support for public transit at large, along with taxes for transit support and perhaps even transit that's perceived to interfere with driving. But first you have to actually show people that transit can be fast. Upgrading bus to LRT won't help all that much. New suburban rail will.

My 2 cents...anyway.

Agreed 100%. Spend the limited funds that are available on a solution that will reduce commute times the most for the greatest number of people within that cost envelope. Let's not forget, GO REX by itself is going to greatly improve the efficiency of local transit routes in Toronto, because instead of riding 20-30 mins to the nearest subway stop (which may not be that near at all), it becomes a 5-10 min ride to the nearest GO REX or subway stop. That means a far greater turnover along the route, which either a) decreases congestion along the route, or b) opens up space for new riders, thereby increasing profitability.

Once the GO REX network is established, then Metrolinx can spend money on enhancing bus corridors, or perhaps upgrading very busy corridors to a higher order transit. Of course, if local municipalities want to jump on that bandwagon at the same time, be my guest. But the funding for those projects shouldn't come at the expense of the GO REX network.
 
I don't see why that part of the SmartTrack plan couldn't be through-routed with the rest of the Eglinton Crosstown Line eventually.
I don't see how you can make that statement when we have no earthly idea what equipment, stations and traction power would be provided under Tory's plan. Instead, the cash required just to connect Georgetown tracks with Eglinton Avenue in any way shape or form, before you build the first train stop, would be a hefty downpayment on Crosstown Phase 2, and given the other prerequisites to getting this down is likely completed as soon if not sooner.
 
Having made mistakes with investments sometimes, I'm mindful of tunnel vision. And so I like to stay open to new ideas. And will pivot, if I see something better.

This goes right into how I look at electoral politics with regards to transit. Kim Campbell said it best, when she said that elections are no time to discuss serious issues. It's unfortunately true.

Imagine, if David Miller had said that Transit City would take 30 years and cost $18 billion by the time the whole plan was finished. How many people would have voted for him then? If we had known that there was an $18 billion budget, perhaps, we'd have thought far differently about how we'd be spending that money and which lines we'd target first.

Given that Miller would have been off by 200%, one would think that other candidates who propose a different plan might get some slack. Instead, Tory is being roasted for not having the level of detail in his plan that Metrolinx would put in to a BCA. Do we now expect every mayoral candidate to be a transit planner too? Perhaps, we should limit the big chair to only those who have urban planning degrees?

On the other sides of this three sided spectrum, you have, strangely enough, two individuals who are equally orthodox in their transit planning approach. Doug Ford (really Rob Ford) will not build anything but subways. And Olivia Chow won't build any subways, save one. Where Rob Ford is completely out to lunch, Olivia Chow won't even bother actually taking a second look at all those transit assumptions and making sure the priorities are in order, except to move up the DRL (and I suspect that's an electoral move more than an actual concern).

I have grave misgivings about Tory's financing plan for Smart Track. And the only reason I'm voting for him, is because if his financing flops, I'd gladly swallow the property tax increase to get improved transit. But while the financing plan is sketchy, the actual transit plan really gets to the root of what bothers most voters: commute time. Tory actually understands what bugs most voters and is going to try to solve it. Ford knows what voters want and will lie about giving it to them. Olivia Chow doesn't seem to care much about voter priorities. She almost seems to be running to be premier, with a standard NDP policy platform including tax increases on the rich (home owners) to pay for social housing, school lunch programs, etc. Meanwhile, half the voters have transit as their #1 issue and she promises them marginal increase in bus service for the next few years and a DRL after she's retired from public office.
 
That is largely what I expect as well, but I worry about him forcing a $3 billion tunnel on Eglinton that isn't really needed...

There won't be a Smart Track tunnel on Eglinton. That was a "line on a map" moment, as they tried to construct a line with the core idea of connecting employment centres. When Metrolinx gets to this part, they'll ask it in lieu of the westward extension of Eglinton LRT. Tory will put up a mild protest and then relent to an extension up the Georgetown corridor.

Heck, I honestly believe that once Metrolinx gets a hold of this thing, the whole Smart Track proposal gets rolled into GO electrification. There will be some kind of arrangement to fully implement Presto across the TTC. There will be a few more stations built inside the 416. And there will be a new fare scheme to accomodate transfers between TTC and GO. I expect this updated proposal about a year into Tory's first term.

The TTC might not like all that much. Huge chunk of ridership shifting on to GO rail. But getting Presto paid for, and some other improvements make up for it.
 
Having made mistakes with investments sometimes, I'm mindful of tunnel vision. And so I like to stay open to new ideas. And will pivot, if I see something better.

This goes right into how I look at electoral politics with regards to transit. Kim Campbell said it best, when she said that elections are no time to discuss serious issues. It's unfortunately true.

Imagine, if David Miller had said that Transit City would take 30 years and cost $18 billion by the time the whole plan was finished. How many people would have voted for him then? If we had known that there was an $18 billion budget, perhaps, we'd have thought far differently about how we'd be spending that money and which lines we'd target first.

Given that Miller would have been off by 200%, one would think that other candidates who propose a different plan might get some slack. Instead, Tory is being roasted for not having the level of detail in his plan that Metrolinx would put in to a BCA. Do we now expect every mayoral candidate to be a transit planner too? Perhaps, we should limit the big chair to only those who have urban planning degrees?

On the other sides of this three sided spectrum, you have, strangely enough, two individuals who are equally orthodox in their transit planning approach. Doug Ford (really Rob Ford) will not build anything but subways. And Olivia Chow won't build any subways, save one. Where Rob Ford is completely out to lunch, Olivia Chow won't even bother actually taking a second look at all those transit assumptions and making sure the priorities are in order, except to move up the DRL (and I suspect that's an electoral move more than an actual concern).

I have grave misgivings about Tory's financing plan for Smart Track. And the only reason I'm voting for him, is because if his financing flops, I'd gladly swallow the property tax increase to get improved transit. But while the financing plan is sketchy, the actual transit plan really gets to the root of what bothers most voters: commute time. Tory actually understands what bugs most voters and is going to try to solve it. Ford knows what voters want and will lie about giving it to them. Olivia Chow doesn't seem to care much about voter priorities. She almost seems to be running to be premier, with a standard NDP policy platform including tax increases on the rich (home owners) to pay for social housing, school lunch programs, etc. Meanwhile, half the voters have transit as their #1 issue and she promises them marginal increase in bus service for the next few years and a DRL after she's retired from public office.

very well said......interestingly I heard a very similar opinion expressed a few weeks ago by Mark Towhey on talk 1010....he was on one of the panels and was asked about one of the candidates transit plans (I don't remember which one but it doesn't matter)....his answer was very intelligent. He basically said that all candidates are really expressing with their transit plans during an election is a big picture/vision type answer. To expect them (any of them) to have a fully costed/fully detailed plan is unreasonable. Setting aside the DRL (which all candidates will/do say they support) you are really left with a decision between a candidate that says he will address the rest of the city with subways....one that says she will focus on a bus strategy....and a third that will focus on using the existing heavy rail infrastructure.

In his opinion, to judge any of the candidates on the level of detail beyond that is naive. Whichever one is elected can only be expected to direct staff to study the implementation of their vision and then take the more detailed proposal/plan to council and try and sell it to the full council.

Like your post, I thought it was a very reasoned response.
 
There won't be a Smart Track tunnel on Eglinton.

I can see portions of it be tunnelled along Eglinton, just as the C-Train in calgary manages to go under roadways and subdivisions for small portions of it's length. The $3 billion 8.5km of tunnels that Chow keeps referring to seems like overkill. There is no reason why all 8.5km of it needs to be underground when there is still land available above ground.
 
thing is that there isn't land available above ground, most of the old Richview Expressway lands have been sold off and are now having houses built on them. Plus there is the whole issue of getting the trains off the rail corridor onto eglinton, the richview right of way starts 2km from the rail corridor and you need to somehow construct an Eglinton LRT interchange. Its a whole lot of very, very expensive work to run a train every 15 minutes through largely single family homes.
 
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thing is that there isn't land available above ground, most of the old Richview Expressway lands have been sold off and are now having houses built on them. Plus there is the whole issue of getting the trains off the rail corridor onto eglinton, the richview right of way starts 2km from the rail corridor and you need to somehow construct an Eglinton LRT interchange. Its a whole lot of very, very expensive work to run a train every 15 minutes.

According to BuildTO, much of the land is still available and not yet sold. So there is still a chance. There are 4 plots listed for sale, with only one that has been transferred.

http://www.buildtoronto.ca/property-search/all
 
The issues in Tory's plan as it related to Eglinton go way, way beyond the blithe "you don't do a BCA for an election campaign". They don't have a clear handle on what technology they are using, how that technology will integrate with existing GO operations, how it will integrate with Eglinton Avenue but they DO know what budget it can be done for (from back when it was no tunnel required) and how long it will take (seven years). It goes way past "honest mistake" and into failing basic smell tests. But Soknacki got slammed because his transit plan was simply to carry out plans and BCAs already done, which the media classified as "no plan". Well, in my book, better no plan that a crap one. Team Tory has also been slamming the Chow campaign because of weaknesses in her plan about availability of buses, but that issue has only one flaw - timeframe to get buses and lease a garage space - and not the several the Tory one does... and that's before we even talk about the TIF magic beans.
 
There's a point I want to bring up. John Tory is regularly being accused of riding the province's coattails with Smart Track. Doesn't anybody else find this strange? It's not like Chow's or Ford's platforms could be executed witout provincial support. No?
 

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