2014 Municipal Election: Toronto Mayoral Race

[MetroMan]

Overall, this could shape up to be a good election. Just think how much better our options are with Chow, Soknacki, Tory, Stintz, and Ford than they were with Smitherman, Pantalone, Rossi, Thompson, and Ford. I think I would take any of the non-Ford candidates from 2014 over any of the candidates from 2010. Elections are unpredictable, but my hunch is that Ford becomes progressively less relevant as the campaign goes on. Maybe it's wishful thinking, but I'd love to see him end up the same way John Nunziata did in 2003: going from competitor to footnote.

I've been thinking that way for some time now. From what I know about Chow and Tory's campaigns in their planning stages, there were options for ignoring Ford altogether. With a high calibre slate of candidates, I think Ford will end up becoming entertainment that people increasingly want to tune out because it will get old. There will be a candidate for every type of voter so people will gravitate to serious candidates.

As a result of being overspent and out campaigned, Ford is going to end up tuned out and will likely come in third or worse on Election Day.

 

[King of Kensington]

As a result of being overspent and out campaigned, Ford is going to end up tuned out and will likely come in third or worse on Election Day.

Ford will have no campaign team and apparently no voters list, no media support, no Conservative machinery, no money or Bay St. support etc. Bay St. will be nearly 100% behind John Tory.

Probably about a quarter of Ford's voters are working class populists that Chow seems better positioned to win over than Tory.

 

[MetroMan]

Let's not forget that Rob Ford has the worst possible campaign manager and no reputable talent on his roster. It's fun to predict what kind of mistakes he'll make.

- Rob will be unprepared for debates and will be savaged like he was on Kimmel.
- Sick of being humiliated at debates, he'll declare that he won't attend any more and will thus become a non choice in public opinion
- He'll continue to repeat the same tired talking points and will ignore challenges from increasingly impatient reporters (i.e. Jackson Proskow)
- Doug thinks he has a winning formula to score free press by booking appearances on high profile TV shows but Rob will only have been invited to be made fun of
- Ford's campaign will break multiple election laws with regards to fundraising, use of City Hall resources and robocalling
- RoFo and DoFo will continue to pick fights with the people and organizations they need to carry an election. When The Sun writes editorial after editorial advising voters to ditch Ford, he'll bundle them in with the "left wing media". Warmington may eventually cave when it becomes clear that Ford isn't going to win or when The Sun transfers him into designing crossword puzzles.
- Without an organized campaign machine, the get out the vote effort will pale in comparison to the Kouvalis organized 2010 election. Ford Nation will largely stay at home.
- Ford will end up in debt after financing most of his campaign himself. In 2010, he finished the campaign with a $800K hole in his personal pocket. It'll hit him hard this time because nobody will be around to help him recoup it and nobody will care about him after he's a spent political force with no power and influence. Coupled with his legal fees to defend upcoming Brazen 2 charges, Rob might end up blowing his entire share of the Ford fortune.

 

[MetroMan]

Probably about a quarter of Ford's voters who are working class populists that Chow seems better positioned to win over than Tory.

You're right. My brother who I had the heart churning realization was and is a Rob Ford supporter just told me he's voting for Chow. I will never understand how he thinks either one is anywhere near an approximate choice. Like you said, they appeal to populists and Chow has the winning formula to pick them up from Ford. If she can successfully win over Ford Nation and simultaneously take the left and progressives, Olivia Chow will be Mayor. There's no route to victory for Tory unless Rob Ford remains strong enough to hold on to Ford Nation.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

I am curious to know how you would rank the mayoral candidates.

1. Chow
2. Soknacki
3. Stintz
4. Tory

[second last] Ford or Don Andrews
[last] Ford or Don Andrews

1. Chow
2. Tory
3. Soknacki
4. Stintz
5. Everyone else
6. A cow
7. Ford

I really want to know Chows platform. I hope she doesn't touch scarborough, I'm willing to suffer a defeat of the island airport (I presume opposition is essentially default for her) for a more progressive mayor actually willing to spend on operating costs in this city, but turning back on Scarborough now is rather silly.

1. Chow.
2. Soknacki
3. Tory
4. Myself
5. Stintz
6. A pile of shit
7. Anyone else in the City of Toronto, dead or alive
9. Nobody
10. Ford

 

[Palma]

Karen Stintz is Rob Ford without the circus.

I hope Stinz cannot go back and run for council if she decides come Sept that she will not win as mayor. They need to stop that practice. Or at least have a May deadline to decide whether to continue to run as mayor or get out and run for council.

 

[Admiral Beez]

Also it'll be interesting to see who the NDP nominates to replace Chow.

She's smart to get out. The NDP is going to get smoked in Quebec if Trudeau can just get his message right.

 

[dt_toronto_geek]

Whomever promises to prioritize the DRL, move ahead with replacement of the 3rd Line with an extension of the 4th Line (wow, that was easier), support expansion of the island airport, move last call to 4 a.m., and not be Rob Ford gets my vote... so probably Tory.

There's no way Chow would support jets at the Island Airport, not that it matters much, the matter will be decided before the election unless Council defers it again.

Obviously Chow has my vote, if polling looks like it won't happen in the weeks leading to the election then whoever is leading gets my vote (presumably Tory), but not Ford.

 

[droyces]

ABC (anyone but Chow)!

 

[edmundoconnor]

Oh dear. The Star can't stop its passive-aggressive stance on NDPers.

http://www.thestar.com/news/city_ha...ivia_chow_sends_out_taxpayerfunded_flyer.html

 

[edmundoconnor]

ABC (anyone but Chow)!

The platform has not been released. Reasonable criticism is perfectly fine. Reviewing a film before even walking into the theatre is rather questionable, to put it mildly.

 

[W. K. Lis]

If Rob Ford continues to appear on U.S. TV shows, those appearances could be outside the jurisdiction covered by any Ontario or Toronto rules on elections. Ditto with the Youtube appearances.

 

[WislaHD]

I'd have to see Chow's policies first, but for the moment for me it is:

1. Soknacki
2. Chow
3. Tory
4. Stintz
5. Everyone Else
6. That 18-year old girl from Inglenook
7. Rob Ford

2. Soknacki: Who knew I would like a "fiscal conservative" so much?

Heh, me too! I guess the difference is Soknacki is an actual fiscal conservative, as opposed to every other cut-taxes/services&build-subways "fiscal conservative" candidate.

If Soknacki's campaign doesn't gain enough traction in the mainstream by October, then it will be a tough choice between Chow and Tory.

edit: Also I'd like Soknacki to clarify his stance on the DRL. I am fine with him pursuing the Scarborough LRT even if I think it is a waste of effort at this point, as it would be the fiscally conservative thing to do, sets him apart from the other candidates and is a popular stance throughout Toronto. However I want to see him also endorsing the prioritization of the DRL like Tory has.

 

[the lemur]

Anyone care to speculate on who will run in Chow's place in Trinity-Spadina?

 

[PinkLucy]

I'm also intrigued by Soknacki but am waiting to hear Chow's platform. I've seen Tory in too many campaigns and pretty much have no use for him. Wouldn't vote for Stintz unless it was only her name and Ford's on the ballot. I'm looking forward to the debates.