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2014 Municipal Election: Toronto Mayoral Race

One observation on this election. I would hope right wing politicians stop criticising immigrants after this. Seems like their brand and resonates more in immigrant rich areas than in more urbane areas.
 
That is true nationally, but in the City of Toronto itself that's probably not the case.

Why? Toronto is the biggest immigrant magnet in this country. I find it hard to believe that Toronto would somehow be exceptional in attracting the least educated immigrants. Is there evidence for this?
 
Not so much that (although it's true that in the 416 area code immigrants are poorer and less educated than in 905, and in other metros), but that less educated native born Canadians are greatly underrepresented in Toronto, and the highly educated are over-represented).
 
2011 NHS, City of Toronto, 25 and older:

Non-immigrants: 42.9% have a university degree
Immigrants: 31.4% have a university degree

I also checked immigrants for Canada as a whole, and it was basically the same proportion (31%). But that exceeds the national average. The reason for the lower proportion for native born Canadians compared to immigrants is they're much more likely to live in places that have lower educational attainments. 23% of all Canadians 25 and older have university degrees.
 
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Strange to assume any correlation between education level and preferred candidate, with no direct evidence.

If it's not education, then perhaps it's a correlation between sheer willful ignorance and Ford support.
 
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If it's not education, then perhaps it's a correlation between sheer willful ignorance and Ford support.

What bothers me about this kind of talk is that it's just as bad as some of the crap from Ford nation.

Now I don't like the Fords. But people voted for them in droves. In two elections. It behooves us to find out why. And attacking them and writing them off is counterproductive in my most humble opinion.

In this election, people who wanted a right leaning candidate had a choice. They still chose Ford. I'd love to know why.

Surely it's more than the anti-establishment vote.
 
Finally got around to looking at my prediction back on Oct 23...I think I'll give myself a pat on the back....

Not so fast.

Augimeri is not going to be there.... it will be Danny Q if Ward 9 voters want to start anew or they will hold their collective noses and elect Cusimano

Mammo is probably gone
Dominelli might take DiGiorgio this time round
Brava has got an excellent chance to unseat Palacio
West given the demo change should replace Fletcher
Anyone but Moeser
Anyone but Perruzza (well except for LoPreti)
Anybody but Pasternak
Anybody but Crisanti
Minnan-Wong seems on thin ice after the fiascos of the last weeks
Parker is sure to be swimming against the current given the vocal critizism of Leasiders
Shiner hasn't registered
Grimes hasn't registered
Lindsay-Luby hasn't registered
Looks like there will be wholesale changes at the Clamshelll come Oct 28...
Whoops I forgot Cho under the anybody but category

You'd think some of the new blood from 2010 has a pretty tenuous grip on holding their Council seat
Ward 1 ...V Crisanti
Ward 10 ...J Pasternak
Ward 18 ...A Bailao
Ward 36 ...G Crawford

Ward 30 Fletcher should not have bother putting her papers in...it is going to be a race between L West and J Farrow and from what I've be able to discern L West has not made a lot of friends
so as IIRC it was who Adma suggested J Farrow is the one to watch and now I agree (AFUITBS Challenger to Watch X)

Ward 32 It was refreshing to see MMM stand up to R Ford and give as good as she got, I really think she is a one termer (even though she said her second term would be her last)...

Ward 16 Stintz's big mistake, she could have the seat for another 20 years. That being said her Ex Asst J P Boutros is the receiver of a gift horse Oct 28 the seat is his...

Ward 23 J Filion endorsed J Tory in hopes that Tory's coattails are long enough to reelect him....Guess what he is wrong David Masouvi will be the new Councillor for 23

Ward 24 Shiner is doing his usual keep people guessing will he or won't he. It isn't going to make a difference time Dan Fox (AFUITBS Challenger to Watch I) is going to take the seat

Ward 34 There are quite a few out there who consider this an AB ward...DWM in 2010 had a tooth in nail fight to be reelected, that won't happen this time, it may still be tooth in nail however Mary Hynes (AFUITBS Challenger to Watch VII) will take that seat

Ward 39 There will be a new Councillor from this ward as MDG is running for Tustee...nevertheless this is still an AB ward (Karygiannis) problem there isn't much talent to pick from...so dartboarding it I come with Patricia Sinclair

Ward 42 Here is a ward the combines both best before and AB...R Cho should hopefully poll last in this election...did he collect his salary during the provincial campaign, there is some suggestion he did after committing to Korean news outlets he wouldn't.....This is another shot in ths dark but how about Somu Mondal taking the seat

Ward 36 The sitting Councillor had a very weak plurality in 2010 (25.6%) and he hasn't shown much else other than loyalty to R Ford (and a trip to Austin) one term is enough....Masihullah Moebgaza should take it given his down to earth platform, I think he has a future...

Ward 44 Finally to the end....and we have in my opinion the worst sitting City Councillor in this Ward...This is the ultimate Anybody But, Best Before, where are you, why are you even here Ward Councillor in Toronto. I'm speaking of a Councillor who hasn't registered yet, fingers crossed will not register and I refuse to name him....Suffice to say Jennifer McKelvie with all her qualifactions should be the next Councillor (AFUITBS Challenger to Watch VI)

Remember we are also looking at what up to 9 new Councillors without unseating incumbents....you have the three retiring, the place holders and three have not yet registered....as part of the 28 newbies....

I'd also think that incumbents with less than a majority in the 2010 are vunerable
Crisanti 40.7%
Lindsay-Luby 41.1% (if she registers)
Mammoliti 43.8%
Perruzza 41.4%
Augimeri 44.3%
Pasternak 19.2%
DiGiorgio 27.1%
Palacio 42.8%
Bailao 43.8%
Parker 31.3%
Fletcher 45.4%
Crawford 25.24%
Moeser 47.4% (if he registers)

The only question is which discredited polling firm do you run?
 
What bothers me about this kind of talk is that it's just as bad as some of the crap from Ford nation.

Now I don't like the Fords. But people voted for them in droves. In two elections. It behooves us to find out why. And attacking them and writing them off is counterproductive in my most humble opinion.

You have a point.
 
2011 NHS, City of Toronto, 25 and older:

Non-immigrants: 42.9% have a university degree
Immigrants: 31.4% have a university degree

I also checked immigrants for Canada as a whole, and it was basically the same proportion (31%). But that exceeds the national average. The reason for the lower proportion for native born Canadians compared to immigrants is they're much more likely to live in places that have lower educational attainments. 23% of all Canadians 25 and older have university degrees.

Much more interesting would be to compare children of immigrants (1st generation Canadians) against more established Canadian (3rd/4th/+ generations) families.

Immigrants themselves may not have degrees, but I'd be willing to bet in most cases their children have a higher than average education for Canadians.
 
Much more interesting would be to compare children of immigrants (1st generation Canadians) against more established Canadian (3rd/4th/+ generations) families.

Immigrants themselves may not have degrees, but I'd be willing to bet in most cases their children have a higher than average education for Canadians.

In Canada as a whole, 2nd generation Canadians may be the most educated group of all, but not necessarily in Toronto. As I pointed out, immigrants in Canada are more likely to have degrees than the Canadian-born, but not in Toronto. The percentage of immigrants with degrees in Toronto is pretty much identical to immigrants in Canada as a whole, but the Canadian born in Toronto are about twice as likely to have degrees as the Canadian born nationwide.

Let's put it this way: well-off professionals are much more likely to stay in Toronto, or to migrate here from other parts of the country, while less educated working class "anglos" are more likely to flee to places like Barrie where housing is cheaper, fewer immigrants etc.
 
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Ridiculous.....how so? Please go on. Any further insight, be they anecdotal, would help me better understand how this all came to be and is still continuing.

Well imagine 16 candidates plastering their signs and campaign literature on every public space and every house, non-stop door knocking by most candidates, the typical experience being while canvassing running into other canvassers for other campaigns and so forth.

Stintz said she wouldn't endorse anyone but ended up endorsing Carmichael. The general reaction to this however was that the Stintz' endorsement hurt Carmichael because Stintz is hated in this ward.

What ended up winning Carmichael the election however was the Tory endorsement. This area is a massively pro-Tory area and many voters piggy-backed the Tory-endorsed candidate, enough to win a plurality. That being said, quite amazing that despite the endorsements, all the support from the establishment and from developers, and riding the Tory-wave, Carmichael still could only achieve a 17% plurality. Crazy.

It's pretty much assumed that Carmichael is going to be a horrible representative for the ward, a backbencher at council, launch yet another family dynasty and a pawn for developers to get their way in the ward. So basically a worse Stintz. Any of the other 3 leading candidates (Taner, Boutros and Youseffi) would've been much much better.
 
nice job greg. what do you think about tory's team?

Sure did cast a wide net, didn't he? Can't accuse him of myopic vision at least with the transition team and council...I would think the feelers are already out and preliminary decisions already made for a Deputy Mayor, the Strike Committee composition and the Speakers...
 

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