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2014 Municipal Election: Toronto Mayoral Race

Scarberian said:
Agreed. Tory looks to be the winner of this race. Though I think he will likely be a one term mayor, not there's anything inherently wrong with that. At least ranked ballots will likely be in place come 2018.
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Extremely wishful thinking. In 2018, Chow won't be able to use the bogeyman of Tory being Ford in a different suit. And all those swing voters? They'll actually feel much more comfortable after realizing that Tory was not some "Hail Mary" play against Ford.

There's a strong perception that this city tacks left. But that's changing and the city is tacking back to the centre. Most surprisingly in the downtown core among the young, urbane professionals. But the centre is where elections are won. If the CBC's Vote Compass is to be believed, Olivia Chow is only slightly less to the left than Doug Ford is to the right. That's a tough spot to win an election on. And in 2018 it's going to be much tougher when a lot of contentious issues from this election (transit in Scarborough, Smart Track, etc.) will be settled one way or the other. I would speculate that she'd have a tougher time winning in a election where transit wasn't such a contentious issue.

And with ranked ballots, she'd have to have common cause with the third place candidate. Think about that in this election. Doug Ford voters would have to rank her second on the ballot. What do you think the chances are of that happening?
 
The only reason I see that Tory may be a one-term mayor is if the federal or provincial CPC come calling for him again. If he runs a successful, mostly scandal free term as a moderate conservative mayor, that would make him quite desirable to the federal CPC or provincial PCP. But it's a big if to see if he can stay out of trouble for 4 years....and avoid his tendency to talk cerebrally in public (which tends to get him in trouble).
 
Honestly, you guys, while I know that Tory will win, I don't have a prediction about his margin. All the same, I hope Tory comes out with over 50% to make it a really good victory for him.

This will be an interesting day -- will Chow place 2nd like she should, or will she place after that nauseating DuhFo? We'll see.

My squeeze and I have a bottle of champagne ready to toast a Ford-Free mayor's office, later on today. The past four years have been a terrible and sad waste of time for Torontonians.
 
I hope for over 50% too. Though unlikely. A strong mandate would really help when bargaining for more powers with Queen's Park or funds from the province and the Feds.
 
kEiThZ said:
Extremely wishful thinking.
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Uh huh, and you base that brusque statement on what, your guess that I'm one of your branded leftist? :rolleyes: Inside info that no one else but you have that Tory will for sure run again in 2018?

In 2018, Chow won't be able to use the bogeyman of Tory being Ford in a different suit.
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And again, what makes you so sure Chow will run again for mayor in 2018?

And with ranked ballots, she'd have to have common cause with the third place candidate. Think about that in this election. Doug Ford voters would have to rank her second on the ballot. What do you think the chances are of that happening?
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My guess is as good or as bad as yours at this point. What I can tell you is before you even start lecturing me on what or what isn't wishful thinking, is that I have no problem saying I don't know if any of the 3 main candidates will even run in 2018. Doug will likely turn tail back to Chicago. If Rob survives his cancer, he still may have to deal with Brazen 2. Chow may want to return to provincial or federal level, or possibly retire from politics altogether. Same possibility with Tory. Four years can be a long time in politics.
 
Silence&Motion said:
http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2014/1...tml?utm_hp_ref=mostpopular&ir=Canada+Politics

Of course, we live in a post-racial society. Olivia Chow doesn't face any obstacles related to the fact that she's a visible minority. White privilege doesn't exist. If you see anything racist, it's just a few crazies who happen to show up to public meetings. Blah, blah, blah.
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Sigh ... if nothing else, this election has opened my eyes to the amount of racism that still exists in Toronto. I thought we were long past this. I never thought I'd hear racist chants at a Canadian election meeting. I'm amazed that electing a Chinese women is more controversial than electing a married lesbian - I don't recall such anti-gay chanting, etc., during the provincial election.
 
Silence&Motion said:
http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2014/1...tml?utm_hp_ref=mostpopular&ir=Canada+Politics

Of course, we live in a post-racial society. Olivia Chow doesn't face any obstacles related to the fact that she's a visible minority. White privilege doesn't exist. If you see anything racist, it's just a few crazies who happen to show up to public meetings. Blah, blah, blah.
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Isn't the idea of "white privilege" predicated on the idea that there are certain preferences that might benefit a white person?

How does a racist cartoon prove that lots of people prefer Tory because of the colour of his skin?

Honestly, this city has elected a whole slate of very diverse politicians (including very recently a lesbian Premier). It's rather offensive to the voters of this city that one would suggest that the majority of them are racist enough to vote on skin colour alone.

Guess if you can't win the voters over with your platform, you should start accusing them of being racists, and hope they get guilted into voting for you? That'll work....
 
Scarberian said:
:rolleyes: Inside info
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Let me remind you that it was you speculated that Tory was going to be a one term. And alluded that a change in the electoral system would make this a reality.




Scarberian said:
And again, what makes you so sure Chow will run again for mayor in 2018?
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I speculated on why she might not be succesful if she does run. I honestly, don't think she'll run in 2018. Her only hope lies in a tight second place finish tonight so that she'll look like a contender in 2018. That's not likely.


Scarberian said:
My guess is as good or as bad as yours at this point. What I can tell you is before you even start lecturing me on what or what isn't wishful thinking, is that I have no problem saying I don't know if any of the 3 main candidates will even run in 2018. Doug will likely turn tail back to Chicago. If Rob survives his cancer, he still may have to deal with Brazen 2. Chow may want to return to provincial or federal level, or possibly retire from politics altogether. Same possibility with Tory. Four years can be a long time in politics.
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Indeed it can be. And like I've said, Tory could be a one-term mayor if other levels of government come calling....I think he might get a crack at the provincial PCs again if he proves to be a popular Toronto mayor and if can pull the party to the centre. But those are big ifs. And I certainly wouldn't speculate as definitively as you have on the end of his term.

As for the others, Chow is probably really regretting giving up her MP seat. She might have a tough fight getting that back from Adam Vaughan. And I think Doug Ford will be in Chicago in time for this weekend.
 
kEiThZ said:
It's rather offensive to the voters of this city that one would suggest that the majority of them are racist enough to vote on skin colour alone.

Guess if you can't win the voters over with your platform, you should start accusing them of being racists, and hope they get guilted into voting for you? That'll work....
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Please include the quote where I said any of those things.
 
kEiThZ said:
I hope for over 50% too. Though unlikely. A strong mandate would really help when bargaining for more powers with Queen's Park or funds from the province and the Feds.
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Not really - that kind of bargaining only works when it is a mayor that holds sway. If JT got elected by a huge margin, it would be due to the strength of the ABF vote and not from the sheer force of his personality. It maybe the case four years down the road, but as it stands right now, he is no Hazel.

Besides, I bet you Queen's Park will be thinking twice about giving the city any additional powers given the Ford tenure - I can't imagine a more compelling argument for a paternalistic approach based on what we've seen the last four years.

AoD
 
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Silence&Motion said:
http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2014/1...tml?utm_hp_ref=mostpopular&ir=Canada+Politics

Of course, we live in a post-racial society. Olivia Chow doesn't face any obstacles related to the fact that she's a visible minority. White privilege doesn't exist. If you see anything racist, it's just a few crazies who happen to show up to public meetings. Blah, blah, blah.
Click to expand...

Just about the only people who amuse me more than homophobes are those people who like to pretend that white privilege doesn't exist. They act like little 4 year old brats who, when you point something out that they know is true but don't want to awknoledge, stick their fingers in their ears, scream and pretend that it's not there.
 
kEiThZ said:
I hope for over 50% too. Though unlikely. A strong mandate would really help when bargaining for more powers with Queen's Park or funds from the province and the Feds.
Click to expand...

I seriously doubt that an over-50% vote for any candidate would make a difference with the senior governments. I'd like to see the margin of victory so that Torontonians can see a respectable and plausible mandate.
 
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