2014 Municipal Election: Toronto Mayoral Race

[jml]

Posters in this thread have been saying that Chow's support is decreasing and that the excitement around her is dying down since she joined the race, but there's been no concomitant drop in her poll numbers. I'm not sure whether this is because posters are in some sort of filter bubble in regards to her or if they're just trying to will her drop in popularity into existence by saying it enough.

 

[Riverdale Rink Rat]

... Half the city considers her as unelectable as Ford ...

jml makes this point as well, but this is complete, unadulterated balderdash. YOU might not find her electable, but no one, not Tory, not Chow, not even the fringe candidates, are within light years of Ford's negative numbers. I mean, there's 60-70% of the electorate that have said they would vote for a fire hydrant instead of Ford. That's crazy, off-the-charts high negative numbers.

Again, you might not like Chow or find her policies or personality wanting, but she's the frontrunner right now. To state otherwise is pure spin.

This election seems to be focusing more and more on transit rather than taxes or social programs or strikes or services. It'll be interesting to see if that's still the case in the fall.

 

[Riverdale Rink Rat]

What's with the 'I'm progressive, but...' meme?

NorthYorkEd's post made set me off in a different direction of thinking right now, and I thought I'd throw the question out there:

Why do people say, "I'm progressive, but..." before stating conservative views, but rarely do the opposite? Do people have the impression there's a halo effect around 'progressive' that is absent from 'conservative'?

I'd genuinely like to know, because to me it becomes the sure sign of a small-c conservative as soon as someone says "I'm progressive, but..."

 

[AlvinofDiaspar]

RRR:

Excellent point - the most extreme case is RoDoFo claim of being "social NDP". I think progressive is being used as a subtitute word for "not a bigot". Not saying that's the case with NYEd.

AoD

 

[sixrings]

I think some of us may have bought into the gravy train hype a bit much. Up until ford we had a liberal mayor in miller for about 8 years. Even after mcguinty Toronto managed to vote liberal in the provincial election. There is no doubt that part of Toronto is hard core conservative like rob ford only concerned about their taxes. However based on our history there is no reason not to think chow cant win and win big.

 

[Midtown Urbanist]

jml makes this point as well, but this is complete, unadulterated balderdash. YOU might not find her electable, but no one, not Tory, not Chow, not even the fringe candidates, are within light years of Ford's negative numbers. I mean, there's 60-70% of the electorate that have said they would vote for a fire hydrant instead of Ford. That's crazy, off-the-charts high negative numbers.

Again, you might not like Chow or find her policies or personality wanting, but she's the frontrunner right now. To state otherwise is pure spin.

This election seems to be focusing more and more on transit rather than taxes or social programs or strikes or services. It'll be interesting to see if that's still the case in the fall.

Dude, I am your typical 20-year old center-left progressive down(mid)towner.

I am just saying, that those same polls that say 60-70% of the electorate deem Ford unelectable, also showed that 40% deem Chow unelectable.

 

[Silence&Motion]

Dude, I am your typical 20-year old center-left progressive down(mid)towner.

I am just saying, that those same polls that say 60-70% of the electorate deem Ford unelectable, also showed that 40% deem Chow unelectable.

CITATION NEEDED.

Chow's approval rating is in the high 50s. Tory's approval rating is in the low 60s. This is probably more a product of the fact that Chow is the frontrunner and has been subject to more attacks, whereas Tory has been safely ignored while in third (and now second) place.

Here's my citation: http://poll.forumresearch.com/data/TO Horse Race News Release (2014 07 02) Forum Research.pdf

Also allow me to point out the absurdity of the fact that you're not voting for Chow because you consider her to be too unelectable and too uncharismatic..... so you're voting for David Soknacki???

 

[Silence&Motion]

I am a "liberal" by most standards, but I will not be voting for Olivia Chow. She failed to impress me at all during the first televised debate (debacle?), and I have no idea (record-wise) what makes her such a compelling choice. After suffering through a provincial NDP majority in Nova Scotia, I will stay far away from anything glowing orange. While I am all for joining hands and singing "Kumbaya", I honestly think their idealism often blinds them to reality.

What does this even mean? You're not voting Chow because of an NDP government in Nova Scotia??? What exactly about Chow's campaign do you consider to be "idealism" that will "blind" her to reality?

Or perhaps you're just voting based on stereotypes. The progressives sit around singing "kumbaya", and the conservative white guy wearing a suit "conveys leadership".

 

[Riverdale Rink Rat]

Dude, I am your typical 20-year old center-left progressive down(mid)towner.

I am just saying, that those same polls that say 60-70% of the electorate deem Ford unelectable, also showed that 40% deem Chow unelectable.

You just proved my point from a few posts ago. The difference between those negative numbers (and I think your 40% is actually high, w/o looking IIRC Chow/Tory's negatives were both in the 30% range) is an ENORMOUS 30-40% gap, and yet you cite it to prove your point that Ford is as electable as Chow. And, you start by saying "... I am your typical 20-year old center-left progressive down(mid)towner." Either young progressives are criminally short on their grasp of statistics and polls, or you don't really lean progressive nor numerate.

Again -- Ford, in the current environment, although things can always change -- is UNELECTABLE. Our next Mayor will be Tory or Chow, with my money currently on Chow but Tory pretty darn close.

 

[Tulse]

What exactly about Chow's campaign do you consider to be "idealism" that will "blind" her to reality?

Seriously. Chow was on city council (including Metro) for 14 years -- what policies did she endorse that are too extreme for you? Let's get to specifics, rather than spout anti-NDP platitudes.

 

[edmundoconnor]

Why do people say, "I'm progressive, but..." before stating conservative views, but rarely do the opposite? Do people have the impression there's a halo effect around 'progressive' that is absent from 'conservative'?

In a word, yes. Thinking of yourself as progressive means you can cast yourself in the same cast as Gandhi, Mandela, MLK, Harvey Milk, and so on, who all make us feel good about ourselves for liking. Being a conservative these days involves either being a faux-progressive or an unrepentant, unreconstructed conservative like Randy Hiller or that McVety guy.

 

[edmundoconnor]

Also allow me to point out the absurdity of the fact that you're not voting for Chow because you consider her to be too unelectable and too uncharismatic..... so you're voting for David Soknacki???

Soknacki would make a fine councillor and also a thoughtful voice on council. But I feel he's over-reaching by running for mayor. Along with good ideas and a reasonable viewpoint on most things, people look for someone who makes them like them, and makes them feel better for liking them. Soknacki has not got charisma, for better or worse. It's not a bad thing. I haven't got it. But it is so often needed for a winning campaign. We can all go on about how this is July, no-one beyond wonks and policy nerds is paying attention to the race, but we are only 3 and a half months out now from election day. If Soknacki's numbers are going to move, they are going to have to move extremely fast in a very short space of time.

 

[edmundoconnor]

From Chow's response to the Toronto Taxpayers Coalition questionnaire:

3) What is your stance on introducing new dedicated taxes to pay for transit expansion in
this City?
I'd welcome provincial or federal moves to dedicate some of the taxes our city pays for our pressing
needs, which we share with other big cities. On the municipal front, the property tax base is already
stretched beyond what it was designed for, and is not based on ability to pay. Accordingly, I don't
support dedicating it—our primary tax, by far—for any one need.
I’ve sat on the budget committee and know the significant costs already borne by property taxes.
David Soknacki has also served on it, and it's no accident we share the most fiscally responsible
policy: saving $1 billion we don't need to spend, and building transit in Scarborough four years
faster with four more stops. All other candidates support Rob Ford’s fiscally irresponsible approach
to this issue.

XXX

The campaign is trying to persuade Soknacki supporters to throw their support behind Chow.

 

[salsa]

The Toronto Taxpayers Coalition supported the Scarborough subway. Hypocrites.

 

[AlvinofDiaspar]

Toronto Taxpayers Coalition is a one man show.

AoD