2014 mayoral election prediction

[saskganesh]

I really think people are underestimating the Ford vote out of some sense of wishful thinking. He's polling higher than many predict he will pull in. But even if support collapses, I fail to see how this support goes to Chow, who many think will perform much higher than polls are predicting. I think Chow and Ford will be much closer than most would predict. And I also think Tory won't have quite the landslide many are predicting. And that's too bad. Giving him a strong mandate coming out of the Ford era would have really helped him....

I don't think it is necessary.

I'm not voting for him, but I do think Tory will play well with others. And he will have a large amount of council lining up to work with him. And after that? The length and fate of his electoral honeymoon will depend on his personal political skills.

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

Lots of people saying Ford voters are young and that his vote will collapse. I'm sceptical too.

That's two of us so far.

I said why I think this right in my quote -- I think this Ford's poll numbers are as big a chimera as the Scottish referendum numbers. If you ask a bunch of 18yo Glaswegians a question, they'll answer in whatever way they think is entertaining -- try to piss you off, mess with your mind, whatever. I'm betting Doug's poll support includes 10% mind-like-a-12-year-old sniggering fools who think it's 'funny' to vote Ford in a telephone poll.

I also think the number of 'folks' who will genuinely think they can vote for Rob and be irate at the election officials will be off the charts. That's how 'low information' I think those voters really are.

These are good points. Many people think this is a game. I think Doug Ford's support tailed off from the high of Rob Ford's hospital diagnosis. I think John Tory will get over 50 percent too, so we'll see.

 

[nfitz]

I don't think Ford's voters ARE young. I think that the few young voters that the pollsters tend to find, bias towards Ford.

I was going to be radical, and put Chow ahead of Ford. But it seems everyone is doing that ...

 

[ehlow]

I don't think Ford's voters ARE young. I think that the few young voters that the pollsters tend to find, bias towards Ford.

I was going to be radical, and put Chow ahead of Ford. But it seems everyone is doing that ...

Why don't you think there are many young Ford supporters?

I could imagine that there are many of young Ford supporters in the suburbs..

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

Why don't you think there are many young Ford supporters?

I could imagine that there are many of young Ford supporters in the suburbs..

Because the people under 30 supporting him are doing it for laughs and giggles.

 

[Ramako]

Because the people under 30 supporting him are doing it for laughs and giggles.

I also think that Ford's support consists of a comparatively large group of people who genuinely support Doug but, because they skew younger, won't actually end up voting. More importantly, the polls may not be anticipating what could be a very high anti-Ford turnout. I think you'll get a disproportionately high number of middle aged and older voters from the downtown and midtown areas coming out, compared to previous elections. There's a massive silent majority in this town that are done with those clowns. I wouldn't be shocked if Doug ends up polling in the teens.

 

[ehlow]

I also think that Ford's support consists of a comparatively large group of people who genuinely support Doug but, because they skew younger, won't actually end up voting. More importantly, the polls may not be anticipating what could be a very high anti-Ford turnout. I think you'll get a disproportionately high number of middle aged and older voters from the downtown and midtown areas coming out, compared to previous elections. There's a massive silent majority in this town that are done with those clowns. I wouldn't be shocked if Doug ends up polling in the teens.

I agree.

The other issue is that in a lot of suburban wards like north Etobicoke or northern Scarborough (which tend to be more Ford friendly), it may be more difficult for them to get out to the voting locations for several reasons:

1. The densities could be lower in some areas as well as the built form/street layout resulting in the voting locations being further away. There are people offering to drive people to the voting places in the suburbs.
In the midtown Yonge & Eg area on the other hand, everyone is within a 10 min walk of the voting location, often within a few minutes walk, or even within the same building as you live (in the lobby). There is no need to drive. Personally it's literally 2-3 min walk away. I would assume downtown would be even more convenient to vote.

2. Generally, in higher income areas, I think they are more likely to have flexible work hours, or shorter commutes, increasing the likelihood of being able to vote. If you're commuting by transit across the city with a 1-2 hour commute, you're much less likely to be able to vote 10am-8pm than someone who walks or takes transit 15 min to work.

Advanced voting was one good way to deal with this however.

 

[nfitz]

Why don't you think there are many young Ford supporters?

I could imagine that there are many of young Ford supporters in the suburbs..

Sure, but in disproportionately higher numbers than the older age brackets? It's the relatively high percentage to the other age brackets that in my mind, doesn't make sense.

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

I also think that Ford's support consists of a comparatively large group of people who genuinely support Doug but, because they skew younger, won't actually end up voting. More importantly, the polls may not be anticipating what could be a very high anti-Ford turnout. I think you'll get a disproportionately high number of middle aged and older voters from the downtown and midtown areas coming out, compared to previous elections. There's a massive silent majority in this town that are done with those clowns. I wouldn't be shocked if Doug ends up polling in the teens.

That would be fantastic if those people Rosedale, Forest Hill and Lawrence Park actually showed up to get control of the city back. It would be the sounding board needed to get rid of the Fords for good.

 

[King of Kensington]

I'm sure they will. I didn't see any Ford signs in North Toronto yesterday or Forest Hill last week.

 

[ehlow]

That would be fantastic if those people Rosedale, Forest Hill and Lawrence Park actually showed up to get control of the city back. It would be the sounding board needed to get rid of the Fords for good.

I'm sure they will. I didn't see any Ford signs in North Toronto yesterday or Forest Hill last week.

http://globalnews.ca/news/1616326/map-toronto-advance-voting-turnout-highest-in-high-income-wards/

Very high turnout from midtown.

 

[pattycakes]

I think Chow will get more than Ford, here's my prediction:

Tory 51%
Chow 29%
Ford 17%
Other 3%

It's mostly based upon the idea that voters can't possibly think that Doug is a better choice than Olivia.

 

[kEiThZ]

I'm sure they will. I didn't see any Ford signs in North Toronto yesterday or Forest Hill last week.

Same. Parents live in Morningside Heights (Malvern). Jogging around. Saw lots of Tory signs. Some Chow signs. But could basically count on one hand the number of Ford signs. If the neighourhood is a hot bed for Ford support, I don't see it.

 

[StatGeek]

So we got some updated polls this week (3 of them) and one poll from late September. Here are their tabulation so far

Forum (Oct 20) Tory 43^.... Ford 29v... Chow 25^... Other 3 (decided voters)
Nanos (Sep 20) Tory 49 .... Ford 27 .... Chow 24
Ipsos (recent) Tory 42v... Ford 31^.... Chow 25v... Other 2
Mainst (recent) Tory 42v... Ford 34^ ... Chow 22v .... Other 3 (decided voters)

I like the decided number most and ignore the (undecided) because there is no "non of the above/undecided" during an election would normally stay at home and not have a voting percentage. Including them as a category of the 100% vote almost makes the contender seem closer. For example mainstreet has about 7% they not including to the people that are actually going to get votes. The Tory 38-32 is being reported but the Tory 42-34 of decided voters is more accuate

Oh well. Mainstreet is the lowest of my polling tree because of their lack of history. Forum is the strongest. Taking the same formula I did for the provincial election I got: Tory 45%, Ford 29%, Chow 24%, Other 2%. If we remove Nanos (because they haven't polled in a month) the number don't change much. Tory 42%, Ford 31%, Chow 24%, Other 3%

 

[SunriseChampion]

FWIW, I don't know a single person who is between 18 and 35 years of age who thinks either Ford is anything short of human rubbish. Give the youth some credit!