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2008 Federal Election: - Predictions for Toronto Area Constituencies

Liberals imo have rebounded very well according to polls not in NDP area's but in the Suburban areas where they are fighting with the Tories.


Garth Turner may now win his seat.
 
I never would have predicted it at the beginning of this campaign, but Olivia Chow seems to be in a bit of trouble. Christine Innes has her outsigned, and I've heard from Chow far less than last time. In the run-up to the last election, I received a mailing from Councillor Chow literally every week. Now that she doesn't have her seemingly limitless councillor's budget to advertise, she hasn't beenup to much. I've been canvassed by the Liberals twice, and only received a single drop from Chow. She seems to be taking the win for granted, and it might not work out for her. She's pretty much ignored the riding while in office, in order to score points and get media attention up in Ottawa. Maybe people are starting to notice. Innes is a stronger candidate than Ianno, and the number of condo residents increases with every year... Chow's base in the Annex might not save her.
 
GTA SCORECARD

BOLD Seats Mean changes

Toronto Centre: Liberal
Trinity-Spadina: NDP
Davenport: Liberal
Parkdale-High Park: NDP
St. Paul's: Liberal
Toronto-Danforth: NDP
Beaches-East York: NDP

Etobicoke Centre: Liberal
Etobicoke North: Liberal
Etobicoke-Lakeshore: Liberal
Don Valley East: Liberal
Don Valley West: Liberal
Eglinton-Lawrence: Liberal
Willowdale: Liberal
York Centre: Liberal
York South-Weston: Liberal
York West: Liberal

Scarborough Centre: Liberal
Scarborough Southwest: Liberal
Scarborough-Agincourt: Liberal
Scarborough-Guildwood: Liberal
Scarborough-Rouge River: Liberal



Ajax-Pickering:: Liberal
Durham: Tory
Oshawa: Tory
Pickering-Scarborough East: : Liberal
Whitby-Oshawa: Tory

Markham-Unionville: Liberal
Newmarket-Aurora: Tory (Belinda won because of name)
Oak Ridges-Markham: : Liberal
Richmond Hill: Liberal
Thornhill: Liberal
Vaughan: Liberal
Bramalea-Gore-Malton: Liberal
Brampton West: Liberal
Brampton-Springdale: Liberal
Mississauga East-Cooksville: Liberal
Mississauga South: Liberal
Mississauga-Brampton South: Liberal
Mississauga-Erindale: Liberal
Mississauga-Streetsville: Liberal (Wajid Khan is done for)
Dufferin-Caledon: Tory
Burlington: Tory
Halton: Liberal (Garth is doing well)
Oakville: Tory (It can't stay Liberal any longer)


So Liberals Lose 3 but win 2 more....

Tory Win 2 but lose 2

NDP gain 1...
 
I've heard the first speculations today of a Liberal Minority.

If you plug today's polls numbers into ridings, you get a seat count in the 109-112 range for the Liberals and Conversatives respectively, with the Conservatives likely taking a few more seats than the Grits. A coalition government of Layton-Dion may be where we are headed and I don't see that as a bad thing.

I also don't see Harper recovering significantly in a week, but at most I can only see Harper gaining about 10 seats from the last election and quite likely -- at this point at least -- going down to somewhere in the 105-115 range. The Neo Cons will be out for blood if that happens and Harper will soon be toast.

If Dion reduces Harper's seat count significantly, I think he'll be around for a while yet.

The NDP will gain 2-10 seats and Jack won't be going anywhere.

The BQ's results should mirror the last election (not necessarily good for them, but a decent come back from last month). While I wish they'd pack-up and leave Ottawa, it's not about to happen this round.

I don't see May winnig her seat.
 
Imo even if the LIberals do not win, they will be seen as the winners.


If Harper goes down in seats, and he loses a few key people, it will be a defeat even if he wins.


Dion is surging and the polls in Ontario are very very good for him. He could crash and burn in BC and other places, but he is averaging 7-12% ahead of the Liberals in Ontario and that is huge!!!
 
not happening, the Liberals and NDP will eat each other alive...


However, I do not see him returning as Finance minister, if Harper knows what is good for him.
 
Ontarians might just get a sense of Flaherty deja vu and send the Liberals a minority government. We'll see in several hours by the day's end.
 
Bloc and NDP are very worried about Justin Trudeau getting elected. I heard them talk on tv, they are very concerned that if they do not stop him now, he never will be stooped. They may have let a sleeping giant awake.

Its because if the situation stays around the same for another 8-10 years, he could easily get elected based on his name. Really any leader with any sort of Charisma can get elected now. I can even reckon Jean Chretien could get re-elected, because really he is still way more popular and liked then Harper or Dion.


Sure there is resentment to the Trudeau name but trust me, the immigrant vote/Youth vote would go 100% behind him. He also would enjoy a lot of support in the Southern Ontario area where the Trudeau name is seen in a very bright light. Problem is kiss any seat west of Thunder Bay good bye. He could still get a few in BC though.

What I am saying the Liberals would attract back a lot of former liberals and a lot of NDP/Green supporters and they can easily track ahead of the Tories.


What I am saying he an build up around 15-20 seats in Quebec, 20 or so in Atlantic Canada, 15 in the rest and easily close to 85-95 seats in Ontario.



Anyways, I am certain Igantieff could of won this election easily.
 
BrandonTO416 said:
Ontarians might just get a sense of Flaherty deja vu and send the Liberals a minority government. We'll see in several hours by the day's end.
Click to expand...

I don't think a Forest Hill investment banker who is basically a single-issue candidate (income trusts) has much of a chance of beating Flaherty.
 
lordmandeep said:
Anyways, I am certain Igantieff could of won this election easily.
Click to expand...

Ignatieff is taking a lot of flack because he hasn't lived in Canada for 30 years!!! Bob Rae (not Igantieff) would have creamed Harper in the english debates had he been elected liberal leader, this is a certainty. It still may happen someday in the future.....you never know.
 
King of Kensington said:
I don't think a Forest Hill investment banker who is basically a single-issue candidate (income trusts) has much of a chance of beating Flaherty.
Click to expand...

That's not exactly what I was talking about, I didn't mean an individual riding. ;) Ontario has a lot of rural ridings that went Con last time around and I think if they just listen to what has been said they'll come around before making the same mistake again.
 
Moonmoth said:
Ignatieff is taking a lot of flack because he hasn't lived in Canada for 30 years!!! Bob Rae (not Igantieff) would have creamed Harper in the english debates had he been elected liberal leader, this is a certainty. It still may happen someday in the future.....you never know.
Click to expand...

I agree Bob Rae would stack up well against Harper. But there is no way he would win Ontario. Iggy might have a better shot in a decade or two.
 
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