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  1. D

    Baby, we got a bubble!?

    Your unit has a sale price under $200k?
  2. D

    Baby, we got a bubble!?

    What is your data source for sub-$200k units generating average net income of $24k/yrly? (ie net to you, after cleaning, management fee, etc) If I were you I would closely assess whether that is legitimate, or marketing/anecdotal.
  3. D

    Baby, we got a bubble!?

    It comes from TREB data.
  4. D

    Baby, we got a bubble!?

    Your interpretation of data is flawed. 1. Your analysis does not consider normal seasonal variances 2. Your analysis does not consider current data in the context of historical data. 3. Your analysis does not consider "bracket creep" (in this case above/below $1m) Finally, contrary to...
  5. D

    Baby, we got a bubble!?

    Exactly! btw, in 2010 an actuary told me I had 3% chance of dying in the next three years. But here I am in 2013, very much alive. ergo, I will live forever!
  6. D

    Baby, we got a bubble!?

    Thanks cereal. I was wondering how to do this.
  7. D

    Baby, we got a bubble!?

    Yes, that's right. It's not you, it's everyone else.:rolleyes:
  8. D

    Baby, we got a bubble!?

    yes, you're a model of diplomacy. we could all learn a lot from you.
  9. D

    Baby, we got a bubble!?

    UD, sure, I saw your prior post :Dand checked the Star comments. But my question for Recharts is why he didn't just say that himself? My point being, let's tone down the unnecessary flame wars, and focus on fact and analysis based discussions
  10. D

    Baby, we got a bubble!?

    Why don't you just tell them where you found that data? Wouldn't that be easier and more productive than starting another online squabble?
  11. D

    Baby, we got a bubble!?

    I wonder if perhaps Urbanation's 55% YOY Q1 decrease refers to pre-sales, whereas Realnet's 24% decrease refers to final sales?
  12. D

    Baby, we got a bubble!?

    I presume Recharts (who promised he was leaving btw!) is quoting Urbanation.ca which is for subscribers only? Its data is for the Toronto CMA. However Realnet posts data showing new construction GTA "high rise" sales down 24% Q1/13 vs Q1/12. That is the same data/source as quoted by...
  13. D

    Baby, we got a bubble!?

    Johnzz, did you not read my post (attached here above)?
  14. D

    Baby, we got a bubble!?

    wrt the 5.6% increase in 416 condos, note pages 14 of the 4/12 and 4/13 reports http://www.torontorealestateboard.com/market_news/market_watch/2012/mw1204.pdf http://www.torontorealestateboard.com/market_news/market_watch/2013/mw1304.pdf Four things to note. First, while the average price is...
  15. D

    Baby, we got a bubble!?

    TREB data is out http://www.torontorealestateboard.com/market_news/market_watch/2013/mw1304.pdf Sales down 5% YOY (note that TREB's quote of 2% decline is a preliminary 2013 to final 2012 basis. Final is always lower than prelim) Prices up 1.7% YOY (ie 0% net of inflation. Lowest YOY change...
  16. D

    Baby, we got a bubble!?

    ...and again, presuming that 3% mortgages will still be available in 2018...
  17. D

    Baby, we got a bubble!?

    While I'm not sure I agree with your theory, nonetheless here are some figures Consider a $300k condo, earning $1500 rent, 500 sq.feet Monthly Costs $1136 Mortgage @ 3%, over 25 years, paid semi-monthly (presumes no CMHC fee) $200 Property tax at 0.8% of value $250 Condo fee at...
  18. D

    Baby, we got a bubble!?

    "Touche'!", said the British general to his Russian counterpart, as they stood over the body of their German foe.
  19. D

    Baby, we got a bubble!?

    KA1, for once you and I are in complete agreement.

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