picard102
Senior Member
It's Ontario, which is central Canada.
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2025 Canadian General Election
- Thread starter Richard White
- Start date
So .... about that election .... 338 Canada is still calling for a Liberal majority but says they will do a final update Sunday night. https://338canada.com/
Coolibop
Active Member
I think the PCs think it may be close win for them: Poilievre is in the riding tomorrow. Maybe one to watch as close race on Monday...
thettctransitfanatic
Senior Member
My personal final election prediction:
Unless all the polls are wrong or there is a polling error tomorrow night, I think the Liberals will likely win a small, very modest majority government. It will not be a big one, but they will get a majority I think largely through picking up seats in Quebec from the Bloc Quebecois and also some NDP seats across the country, and maybe a few other random ones sprinkled around Canada as well, like Peterborough. I think the Conservatives will form a very strong Opposition, will gain several seats, and will get the highest vote share since 2011 when they won a majority, but that due to the NDP and Bloc Quebecois losing support to the Liberals, it will not be enough to win. I think NDP will lose party status and lose a large number of seats, and will win less then 12 seats. I think the Bloc Quebecois will lose a decent number of seats to the Liberals in Quebec, but will hold onto some of them. I think the Greens will hold the 2 seats they have currently, but will lose vote share elsewhere across the country. And I think Mike De Jong will be elected as an Independent MP in Abbotsford, BC, as he is quite popular personally.
Prediction: Small Liberal majority government
Seat prediction:
Liberal 182 Conservatives 138 Bloc Quebecois 12 NDP 8 Greens 2 Independent 1
Make sure to get out there and vote tomorrow at your polling station, from 9:30 AM to 9:30 PM!
Unless all the polls are wrong or there is a polling error tomorrow night, I think the Liberals will likely win a small, very modest majority government. It will not be a big one, but they will get a majority I think largely through picking up seats in Quebec from the Bloc Quebecois and also some NDP seats across the country, and maybe a few other random ones sprinkled around Canada as well, like Peterborough. I think the Conservatives will form a very strong Opposition, will gain several seats, and will get the highest vote share since 2011 when they won a majority, but that due to the NDP and Bloc Quebecois losing support to the Liberals, it will not be enough to win. I think NDP will lose party status and lose a large number of seats, and will win less then 12 seats. I think the Bloc Quebecois will lose a decent number of seats to the Liberals in Quebec, but will hold onto some of them. I think the Greens will hold the 2 seats they have currently, but will lose vote share elsewhere across the country. And I think Mike De Jong will be elected as an Independent MP in Abbotsford, BC, as he is quite popular personally.
Prediction: Small Liberal majority government
Seat prediction:
Liberal 182 Conservatives 138 Bloc Quebecois 12 NDP 8 Greens 2 Independent 1
Make sure to get out there and vote tomorrow at your polling station, from 9:30 AM to 9:30 PM!
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thettctransitfanatic
Senior Member
The site has unfortunately been hacked and is inaccessible.
christiesplits
Senior Member
That looks very similar to my predictions. I think the NDP ekes out official status at 12 seats, due to a strong ground game in ridings with concentrated support.
I have:
179 - Liberal
132 - Conservatives
18 - Bloc
12 - NDP
2 - Green
In Toronto, I think Karpoche wins by a nose in Taiaiako'n-Parkdale-High Park (I go back and forth), while the Conservatives come close in York Centre and Eglinton-Lawrence, but strike out in the 416.
I suspect Jagmeet Singh resigns within the next few weeks, but I'm less certain about Poilievre.
Richard White
Senior Member
If the NDP loses party status Jagmeet will be pressured to immediately resign. If he ignores advice, he would be tossed at the next leadership convention.
In either case, I don't see a situation where the NDP loses party status and Jagmeet stays on.
If the CPC loses enough seats and/or loses Carlton (PPs seat) I can see Pierre Pollievre resigning as leader.
In any case, I expect changes especially if we end up with a LPC Majority
thettctransitfanatic
Senior Member
I had to update mine and I lowered the Bloc down to 12. I just think that Quebec when it votes in a wave it tends to votes in a big way. 2011 is a good example of this. I do think it's possible the NDP could do a bit better with the ground game but I still think it would be less then 20. The 1 Independent is in BC. Poilievre I think will either have to be forced out or, what I think is possible, is that the CPC will blame the loss on the NDP collapse, and will basically try to say PP got a raw deal, blah blah.
picard102
Senior Member
Conservatives can't have people seeing PP losing.
thettctransitfanatic
Senior Member
Apparently it was done on purpose by one of the election campaigns to allow disinfo to spread on the state of local races. The French version is up and running:
Qc125 Canada | Les 343 circonscriptions
qc125.com
Admiral Beez
Superstar
Taking the adult kid to vote tomorrow. With that it’s (reportedly) four votes for Carney from this household.
JasonParis
Moderator
I haven't checked this thread since November, and this was the first new post. How the world has changed since!
Richard White
Senior Member
I damn near had a heart attack when I saw this update in my email
thettctransitfanatic
Senior Member
Same LOL. Just panicked.... but here is some data to calm the nerves....
EKOS Predicts Liberal Majority
[Ottawa – April 27, 2025] We submit our final poll for the 2025 federal election. We are selecting our 3-day rolling IVR poll as our choice to predict the final vote outcome. Our chosen final poll …
www.ekospolitics.com
Admiral Beez
Superstar
I’ll be up late tomorrow night. Hopefully it’s a blowout so I can hit the sheets before midnight.Same LOL. Just panicked.... but here is some data to calm the nerves....
EKOS Predicts Liberal Majority
[Ottawa – April 27, 2025] We submit our final poll for the 2025 federal election. We are selecting our 3-day rolling IVR poll as our choice to predict the final vote outcome. Our chosen final poll …www.ekospolitics.com