Mayor Olivia Chow's Toronto

[Northern Light]

I'll do the broad look at the Transportation Services budget here, and I or others can parcel out items to the appropriate threads as partial cross-posts.

https://www.toronto.ca/legdocs/mmis/2024/bu/bgrd/backgroundfile-241987.pdf

Comment: Good on cutting the windrow service, like the leaf collection, it was a service not delivered to all communities or even most communities equitable, nor was that likely to change.

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Despite the Gardiner/DVP upload, there is insufficient money to maintain roads at current levels, and they are set to deteriorate over the next decade:

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Some things of note below: Some money has fallen from the sky for King Street; look at the 2025 number for Neighbourhood improvements; holy @#$# that's a lot for the West Toronto Railpath,

Next: (comment) - @sunnyraytoronto will make note of the Beecroft Extension funding times; looks like John Street has slipped back to 2025 and many future years..... that is really inefficient.
Some of our Junctionites or those adjacent such as @ProjectEnd, @AlbertC and @smably will note the Dundas/Dupont/Annette project starting in 2025
@mburrrrr will note the Lower Yonge improvements, and I suspect @DSC will follow these as well.
@interchange42 will believe in the long promised Legion Road underpass after it opens and not a day sooner.
Raising my own eyebrow at the very marginal sums allocated to YongeTOmorrow.

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Below are projects for which Transportation currently lacks money to deliver.

 

[Northern Light]

I'm just going to note here, as a freestanding post; that some numbers in the budget beggar the imagination as to how they were arrived at.

I'm not going to lay this on on our new mayor or budget chief at this point.

But members here are already raising questions, rightfully so about some project inflation.............and there will be more questions by the time I'm finished publishing my budget thoughts.

UT.....don't accept stuff that smells bad. Maybe there's a good explanation, staff deserve some benefit of the doubt; but when project budgets seem vastly outside what you'd expect or have more than doubled in less than 2 years........

Someone should have answers at the ready as to why. Be prepared to email, phone, tweet, or send a query to the media.

Cause for some of these, if there's a good answer, I surely want to hear it.

 

[Towered]

I'll do the broad look at the Transportation Services budget here, and I or others can parcel out items to the appropriate threads as partial cross-posts.

https://www.toronto.ca/legdocs/mmis/2024/bu/bgrd/backgroundfile-241987.pdf

View attachment 532487

Comment: Good on cutting the windrow service, like the leaf collection, it was a service not delivered to all communities or even most communities equitable, nor was that likely to change.

****

Despite the Gardiner/DVP upload, there is insufficient money to maintain roads at current levels, and they are set to deteriorate over the next decade:

View attachment 532488

View attachment 532489


****

Some things of note below: Some money has fallen from the sky for King Street; look at the 2025 number for Neighbourhood improvements; holy @#$# that's a lot for the West Toronto Railpath,

View attachment 532495

Next: (comment) - @sunnyraytoronto will make note of the Beecroft Extension funding times; looks like John Street has slipped back to 2025 and many future years..... that is really inefficient.
Some of our Junctionites or those adjacent such as @ProjectEnd, @AlbertC and @smably will note the Dundas/Dupont/Annette project starting in 2025
@mburrrrr will note the Lower Yonge improvements, and I suspect @DSC will follow these as well.
@interchange42 will believe in the long promised Legion Road underpass after it opens and not a day sooner.
Raising my own eyebrow at the very marginal sums allocated to YongeTOmorrow.

View attachment 532496

*****

Below are projects for which Transportation currently lacks money to deliver.

View attachment 532497

What's the Dundas/Annette/Dupont project?? First I've heard of it...

 

[Northern Light]

What's the Dundas/Annette/Dupont project?? First I've heard of it...

Not sure. I know ideas have been bandied about it the past as to how to regularize the intersection a bit, but I haven't seen this as a budget line item recently that I can recall. So not sure what it is that they have in mind.

 

[allengeorge]

But members here are already raising questions, rightfully so about some project inflation.............and there will be more questions by the time I'm finished publishing my budget thoughts.

I’m stunned at one that you brought up: that the West Toronto Railpath is $148M. With project inflation like this it’s no wonder that the capital budget backlog is ballooning. At this rate we’ll never be able to maintain anything we build. Ever.

 

[rbt]

I’m stunned at one that you brought up: that the West Toronto Railpath is $148M. With project inflation like this it’s no wonder that the capital budget backlog is ballooning. At this rate we’ll never be able to maintain anything we build. Ever.

Doubling is a lot but it seems that a 50% increase over 2 years is in line with private sector. What's interesting is while prices have gone up everywhere, they've gone up far more in Toronto (not Ottawa so it's not an Ontario thing) than elsewhere. Is this partly an effect of tendering 4 subway lines and a massive commuter rail project simultaneously?

Building construction price indexes

none

www150.statcan.gc.ca

Though some materials with a very large 2-year price increase were abnormally cheap in 2021 rather than hugely expensive now.

OAPC - Ontario Asphalt Pavement Council

As the Asphalt Pavement Council of ORBA, we now have one unified voice to support our members.

www.onasphalt.org

I was hunting for a recent MTO Construction Inflation rate report but can't seem to find one.

 

[smably]

Doubling is a lot but it seems that a 50% increase over 2 years is in line with private sector.

More than doubling! The railpath budget has increased by 181% over two years, from $53 million in 2022 to $148 million in 2024:

Cycling: West Toronto Railpath (City of Toronto, Phase II Proposed)

Follow up number 2.......... Project is being delivered by Metrolinx, though the City is paying. Someone at Mx will need to account for what seems like extraordinary inflation. Extraordinary is right. I really am struggling to understand what's going on here. I went back through the...

urbantoronto.ca

 

[turini2]

I am not looking forward to hearing from people who should know better (i.e. worked with Tory) about this budget ...
If there are 'efficiencies' to be found, why didn't you find them when you were running Council?

The Star's first budget piece is up; it adds little substance except to say that Councillor Burnside has decided to align w/Cllr. Holyday as a contrarian:

View attachment 532371

From: https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/to...cle_a093c35e-af2d-11ee-a7b7-2706a05486c7.html

I disagree with him, but I do appreciate that Burnside is upfront with what he wants to cut - often a problem with commentators at budget time!

 

[taal]

ve answers at the ready as to why. Be prepared to email, phone, tweet, or send a query to the media.

Cause for some of these, if there's a good answer, I surely want to hear it

Is this actually a huge surprise ? Were the numbers pre-pandemic - if so, I've seen costs jump anywhere from 20-60% depending on the type of work (speaking from the perspective of capital projects in a condominium) - this is backed by CCI presentations and the like.

 

[Northern Light]

Is this actually a huge surprise ? Were the numbers pre-pandemic - if so, I've seen costs jump anywhere from 20-60% depending on the type of work (speaking from the perspective of capital projects in a condominium) - this is backed by CCI presentations and the like.

@smably ; just 2 posts up, noted a 181% increase in the last 2 years for the Rail Path. That's far in excess of the 20-60% your reporting above.

I'll share some other projects where the numbers concern me shortly. I have a few work meetings today, so posts will be less frequent than usual.

 

[Northern Light]

What's the Dundas/Annette/Dupont project?? First I've heard of it...

To follow up, I've found a much larger budget number for this in the capital constraints section (unfunded); I suspect the funded work is design w/no implementation money.

The total (unfunded) amount is on the left at 8.9M the smaller numbers are in year budgets (again, unfunded) from 2027-2031

 

[allengeorge]

I really want to understand the breakdown of the increase. Clearly people’s salaries aren’t increasing by 2x YoY.

 

[Northern Light]

I really want to understand the breakdown of the increase. Clearly people’s salaries aren’t increasing by 2x YoY.

The increase in what? You need to be more specific!

 

[DSC]

Is this actually a huge surprise ? Were the numbers pre-pandemic - if so, I've seen costs jump anywhere from 20-60% depending on the type of work (speaking from the perspective of capital projects in a condominium) - this is backed by CCI presentations and the like.

We recently receive quotes on new windows that were higher by 2.5 or 3 from 2019.

 

[allengeorge]

The increase in what? You need to be more specific!

I see that the private sector quotes a projected 50% increase (at minimum?) over two years for construction costs. The Railpath increase is well over that. I’d like to understand what’s driving both those quoted numbers. It can’t just be salaries. Also, the prices of some construction materials have fallen from their peak. So, what is it?