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2014 Municipal Election: Toronto Mayoral Race

A humble prediction for October 27: Chow 36%, and the win. Much too early, and I am probably terribly wrong, but I wanted to get it out there.
 
It's definitely worth noting that compared to Barbara Hall '03 or Smitherman '10, Chow's *never* been a perceived overwhelming landslide fave for months on end--which, from an "avoiding complacency" POV, might actually be a *good* thing...
 
It is difficult to think of anyone who would challenge Chow on the left. Barring something extraordinarily bad (Ford-level bad) happening, she has knocking on 35% of the vote in the bag. Every poll has her either leading, or within the margin of error. But she is not running away with it. Only a few points, enough to keep her humble, but also enough to win.
 
She is bound to win due to vote splitting on the right. Or at least, be perceived to win months ahead.

She is boring and stale every single time I've seen her in front of TV. If that doesn't change then well... I can see a repeat of Barbara Hall.
 
With Rob Ford polling so high, my question is who are these citizens of Ford Nation? A poll from The Star a few weeks ago placed Rob Ford at 28%. I'm sure that any sensible person who considers themselves "fiscally conservative" would ditch Rob Ford and support either Tory, Soknacki or Stintz, while the left would align themselves behind Chow. Is 28% of Toronto actually supportive of the Mayor, despite everything that has gone on over the past few years? It doesn't make any sense to see such high support for this man.
 
There are people out there who couldn't care less about his personal life so long as his scandals remain personal and not governmental. They also cherish the fact that he's so transparent (in the sense that, unlike a truly shrewd and savvy politician, he is incapable of effectively hiding his mistakes).
 
JasonParis said:
For what it's worth...

Forum Research Shows Ford's Approval Spiking
Click to expand...

God. Given how often the media reports on polling, you'd think their reporters would actually spend time learning how to interpret the numbers. You don't get to call it a "spike" if the two time points are within each other's range of statistical insignificance.

Ford went from 42 to 46 in one week. Both those numbers have at least a 3-point margin of error. So really Ford's approval remains unchanged at about 45%, as it has been pretty much since he came to office. There has never been a spike or a dip.

And for those of you who get scared by the 45%, keep in mind that 10-15% of that 45% have no intension of voting for him and 5-10% wanted him to resign. 45% also makes him one of the least popular mayors in the country.

My guess is that as long as the city is not experiencing any major crisis like a garbage strike, a large section of the public is just going to approve of the government by default. Council's approval rating is even higher than Ford's. In fact it's quite rare for a mayor to have negative approval.
 
TFC said:
With Rob Ford polling so high, my question is who are these citizens of Ford Nation? A poll from The Star a few weeks ago placed Rob Ford at 28%. I'm sure that any sensible person who considers themselves "fiscally conservative" would ditch Rob Ford and support either Tory, Soknacki or Stintz, while the left would align themselves behind Chow. Is 28% of Toronto actually supportive of the Mayor, despite everything that has gone on over the past few years? It doesn't make any sense to see such high support for this man.
Click to expand...

Check out the Soknacki interview I posted a few posts above yours.

Those callers who asked him questions were people who support Ford Nation. A fair demographic of the city doesn't actually care about the city at all, just their homes, cars, roads and taxes.
 
edmundoconnor said:
It is difficult to think of anyone who would challenge Chow on the left. Barring something extraordinarily bad (Ford-level bad) happening, she has knocking on 35% of the vote in the bag. Every poll has her either leading, or within the margin of error. But she is not running away with it. Only a few points, enough to keep her humble, but also enough to win.
Click to expand...

A few things to make Chow supporters feel better:

1. She's leading or in a statistical dead heat in every poll
2. She's the only candidate who has polled above 40%

The winner of this election will most likely take over 40% of the vote. The question is: which candidate has the best chance of breaking through that ceiling? Chow definitely does. I think Tory also has a shot as well. I could see a situation in which Tory begins to drain Ford of support in a last minute rally to prevent a Chow victory. But the fact that Ford is sitting on this 30-35% that never seems to grow or shrink is really bad news for Tory. He's left fighting for the 65-70% anti-Ford vote, the majority of whom were Miller supporters.
 
WislaHD said:
Those callers who asked him questions were people who support Ford Nation. A fair demographic of the city doesn't actually care about the city at all, just their homes, cars, roads and taxes.
Click to expand...

Exactly. These are the same people who probably don't know the name of their own city councillor or MPP/MP for their riding. UT is representative of the average Torontonian, I'd imagine the regulars on this site has Ford support in the single digits.
 
Silence&Motion said:
My guess is that as long as the city is not experiencing any major crisis like a garbage strike, a large section of the public is just going to approve of the government by default. .
Click to expand...
It is an example of unintended consequences, wherein the garbage collectors who went on strike never considered that their action would be a tipping point for so many Torontonians to bring Ford to power, and thus cause much mayhem, as well as lead to the out sourcing of garbage collection.
 
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