High-Speed Rail Is Good for Business

[nfitz]

The plan for Pickering Airport has a rail link on day one and that could be used to link to Pearson via Union station.

The plan for Mirabel Airport had a rail link on day one ... and new expressways connecting to Montreal and Ottawa; and despite roughing in the train station in the basement, the rail link was never constructed, and the expressways never completed (though one carriageway of the 50 to Ottawa may be partially open soon - years after Mirabel was made freight-only).

 

[gweed123]

The plan for Mirabel Airport had a rail link on day one ... and new expressways connecting to Montreal and Ottawa; and despite roughing in the train station in the basement, the rail link was never constructed, and the expressways never completed (though one carriageway of the 50 to Ottawa may be partially open soon - years after Mirabel was made freight-only).

But the site of the Pickering Airport already has the 407 literally directly beside it, and a GO line less than 4km away. This is a sharp contrast to Mirabel, which was built in the middle of nowhere, with the promise of "build it and they will come". A direct freeway link existing, and a rail spur that can be built while the airport is under construction (or at least a ROW left through the Seaton lands). That's already miles ahead of what Mirabel had.

 

[kEiThZ]

The decision to build Pickering will be based on congestion at Pearson.

Partly. But the closure of Buttonville and development encroaching on Markham and Oshawa (coupled with any desire to close the Island) are also playing a big part in pushing the Pickering airport forward. The initial plan is to consolidate almost all general aviation in the eastern GTA at Pickering, with eventually some functionality as a regional airport.

In any event, while there's a lot of flights in the TOM triangle, I would bet that altogether (combining AC and Westjet) they still constitute less than 10% of Pearson's total aircraft movements. And when it comes to TOM flights, it'd also be quite easy for Westjet and AC to simply upsize the aircraft they operate on these routes to add capacity. The only reason frequencies are as high as they are today is because business in the TOM triangle dictates that airlines run a frequency driven operation to provide maximum flexilibility to their (usually) corporate clientele....and in Air Canada's case, hourly flights are also needed to feed passengers into its international hub in a timely fashion without having passengers mull about for several hours (I mean 4+) there.

I would suggest that for any HSR to steal away TOM traffic from the airlines, they will also have to operate trains hourly or bi-hourly.

Personally, I think that in our context HSR would only steal traffic from the least time sensitive business passengers. What it might have a better chance of pulling off is stealing some auto traffic and generating new traffic by making smaller centres like Kingston more accessible. Undoubtedly, HSR could turn Kingston into a Toronto bedroom community. Small law firms, accounting offices, engineering consultancies, etc. based in Kingston or Belleville could easily maintaint clients in Toronto if they were only an hour to an hour and a half away. Heck, companies in Nanaimo do business in Vancouver and fly in their staff using float plane taxi services at $80 a trip. This would be quite similar (albeit the difference being ferry to air cuts 2 hrs to 20 mins).

And this is how HSR actually generates economic activity. It creates larger markets. Particularly for service companies. Whereas a potential client was 2.5 hours away. They are now 1.5 hours. In effect, HSR virtually relocates the company's office from Kingston to Oshawa. Heck, HSR could also do the same thing for anybody's dating life!

If this thing ever comes to fruition, I'm investing in Kingston (soon to be a bedroom community of Toronto, Ottawa and Montreal).

 

[nfitz]

This is a sharp contrast to Mirabel, which was built in the middle of nowhere...

It's only 10 km from from the railway track at Mirabel, right to the terminal - and about 3 km to the end of the runway (well the overshoot land at the end of the runway). The location wasn't the issue ...

 

[gweed123]

It's only 10 km from from the railway track at Mirabel, right to the terminal - and about 3 km to the end of the runway (well the overshoot land at the end of the runway). The location wasn't the issue ...

But the issue with that was the creation of an entirely new service. There's already GO infrastructure on that line, so adding a parallel GO service wouldn't be as big of an issue as creating an entirely new service. Given that the Stoufville line sees only a fraction of the traffic that the Georgetown line does, I think a lot of the issues that Metrolinx is facing with the ARL wouldn't appear. In fact, this could even run as an extension of the ARL service (two halves of a U). Same trains, same service, linking 2 airports (3 if you count the island) and downtown.

I think however the biggest benefit of the Pickering airport will be the reduction in cargo traffic not only at Pearson, but along the 401 through the GTA. Having a cargo airport with direct access to a congestion-free highway that bypasses the GTA I think would be a huge attraction, especially when the 407 East is finished.

 

[gweed123]

Partly. But the closure of Buttonville and development encroaching on Markham and Oshawa (coupled with any desire to close the Island) are also playing a big part in pushing the Pickering airport forward. The initial plan is to consolidate almost all general aviation in the eastern GTA at Pickering, with eventually some functionality as a regional airport.

In any event, while there's a lot of flights in the TOM triangle, I would bet that altogether (combining AC and Westjet) they still constitute less than 10% of Pearson's total aircraft movements. And when it comes to TOM flights, it'd also be quite easy for Westjet and AC to simply upsize the aircraft they operate on these routes to add capacity. The only reason frequencies are as high as they are today is because business in the TOM triangle dictates that airlines run a frequency driven operation to provide maximum flexilibility to their (usually) corporate clientele....and in Air Canada's case, hourly flights are also needed to feed passengers into its international hub in a timely fashion without having passengers mull about for several hours (I mean 4+) there.

I would suggest that for any HSR to steal away TOM traffic from the airlines, they will also have to operate trains hourly or bi-hourly.

Personally, I think that in our context HSR would only steal traffic from the least time sensitive business passengers. What it might have a better chance of pulling off is stealing some auto traffic and generating new traffic by making smaller centres like Kingston more accessible. Undoubtedly, HSR could turn Kingston into a Toronto bedroom community. Small law firms, accounting offices, engineering consultancies, etc. based in Kingston or Belleville could easily maintaint clients in Toronto if they were only an hour to an hour and a half away. Heck, companies in Nanaimo do business in Vancouver and fly in their staff using float plane taxi services at $80 a trip. This would be quite similar (albeit the difference being ferry to air cuts 2 hrs to 20 mins).

And this is how HSR actually generates economic activity. It creates larger markets. Particularly for service companies. Whereas a potential client was 2.5 hours away. They are now 1.5 hours. In effect, HSR virtually relocates the company's office from Kingston to Oshawa. Heck, HSR could also do the same thing for anybody's dating life!

If this thing ever comes to fruition, I'm investing in Kingston (soon to be a bedroom community of Toronto, Ottawa and Montreal).

The real question is this: is the sum of the benefits (reduced pressure on the highway network and airports, increased scheduling flexibility, increased economic potential) greater than the expense of building such a system? Not only in terms of capital expenses, but operating. I mean, Acela operates in the densent corridor in North America, and its profits per passenger, while decent, are not extremely high. Would such a service here even break even? Or would it require an on-going subsidy?

Does Kingston even want to be a bedroom community of TOM? What will this added growth do to existing municipal services, or property values? How will a City with a relatively low amount of high income residents raise the funds necessary to fund what would amount to significant improvements in their infrastructure? People wouldn't move to Kingston to buy a condo next to the rail station, they would move there to buy a McMansion that's a 15 minute drive from the rail station. All questions to consider.

 

[nfitz]

But the issue with that was the creation of an entirely new service. There's already GO infrastructure on that line ...

Stouffville? There's no plans to service Pickering Airport from the Stouffville line. The Pickering terminal location is to be right next to the northern branch of GO's proposed Seaton GO service, before you get to Claremont. It is this line - which is CP Rail-owned as far as I know - which would service the airport. There is currently no GO infrastructure on this line. There hasn't been any passenger service on this line for decades.

This contrasts to the line that goes right beside Mirabel, which had regular CP (and later VIA) passenger service when Mirabel opened, and now carries the AMT commuter service to St-Jerome.

I'm not saying that Pickering won't be better, etc. But your facts don't seem to match the actual situation. I'm getting the impression you haven't been to Mirabel recently!

 

[gweed123]

Stouffville? There's no plans to service Pickering Airport from the Stouffville line. The Pickering terminal location is to be right next to the northern branch of GO's proposed Seaton GO service, before you get to Claremont. It is this line - which is CP Rail-owned as far as I know - which would service the airport. There is currently no GO infrastructure on this line. There hasn't been any passenger service on this line for decades.

Sorry, got the lines mixed up, haha.

This contrasts to the line that goes right beside Mirabel, which had regular CP (and later VIA) passenger service when Mirabel opened, and now carries the AMT commuter service to St-Jerome.

I'm not saying that Pickering won't be better, etc. But your facts don't seem to match the actual situation. I'm getting the impression you haven't been to Mirabel recently!

Has anybody really been to Mirabel lately? Haha. But no, I've been there a couple times, but that was when it was still actually handling passenger service.

I just think that both the economic and the transportation situation surrounding Pickering vs Mirabel will be much more successful for Pickering. The GTA isn't likely to see a Montreal-style economic and social exodus like we saw in Montreal. That was really the biggest factor with Mirabel. It was built to respond to forecasted demand, but then the variables that lead to that forecast completely changed.

 

[nfitz]

Has anybody really been to Mirabel lately? Haha.

You drive right through the middle of it anytime you take Autoroute 50 between the 15 and Lachute. Right along the wide-ROW they built to build the train.

I just think that both the economic and the transportation situation surrounding Pickering vs Mirabel will be much more successful for Pickering. The GTA isn't likely to see a Montreal-style economic and social exodus like we saw in Montreal. That was really the biggest factor with Mirabel. It was built to respond to forecasted demand, but then the variables that lead to that forecast completely changed.

Mirabel's biggest issues were that the highway and rail connections to the airport were never finished, and the airport was too far from downton (45-50 kilometres) - about a 45-minute drive compared to the 20-minute 20-km drive to Dorval. The next issue was that they cancelled the plan to close Dorval (the redevelopment of which would have provided a lot of $)

From downtown Toronto to the Pickering airport location is about 45 km - and a 45-minute drive compared to the 25-minute 25 km drive to Malton. The parallels are huge - particularly as this is no plan to close Pearson! I can see Pickering being used for freight, like Mirabel is now; though I wouldn't be surprised if it goes to Hamilton instead. But I doubt we'll see scheduled passenger service there in our lifetime.

 

[dunkalunk]

I would think that Hamilton could accommodate a lot of air freight. Its also not like air freight's popularity is going to increase that much, as a lot of time-sensitive things can now be sent over the Internet, and I may sound like a broken record, but the cost of fossil fuels (and everything else for that matter) is going to rise at a much greater rate than inflation. Few people will be able to afford air freight. I think we could see shipping on the lakes and rail make a comeback.

 

[Dan416]

I would think that Hamilton could accommodate a lot of air freight. Its also not like air freight's popularity is going to increase that much, as a lot of time-sensitive things can now be sent over the Internet, and I may sound like a broken record, but the cost of fossil fuels (and everything else for that matter) is going to rise at a much greater rate than inflation. Few people will be able to afford air freight. I think we could see shipping on the lakes and rail make a comeback.

Time-sensitive things can be "sent over the internet"??? Um, what??? Even if you buy things over the internet, it still needs to get from point A to point B.

I don't think air freight is going anywhere. Yes it'll increase costs. But when you need something fast, it's MUCH faster to air freight than ocean freight.

 

[MisterF]

The biggest advantage of Pickering over Mirabel is that Pearson has more traffic than Dorval has ever had, 4 times as much when it comes to freight.

Partly. But the closure of Buttonville and development encroaching on Markham and Oshawa (coupled with any desire to close the Island) are also playing a big part in pushing the Pickering airport forward. The initial plan is to consolidate almost all general aviation in the eastern GTA at Pickering, with eventually some functionality as a regional airport.

In any event, while there's a lot of flights in the TOM triangle, I would bet that altogether (combining AC and Westjet) they still constitute less than 10% of Pearson's total aircraft movements. And when it comes to TOM flights, it'd also be quite easy for Westjet and AC to simply upsize the aircraft they operate on these routes to add capacity. The only reason frequencies are as high as they are today is because business in the TOM triangle dictates that airlines run a frequency driven operation to provide maximum flexilibility to their (usually) corporate clientele....and in Air Canada's case, hourly flights are also needed to feed passengers into its international hub in a timely fashion without having passengers mull about for several hours (I mean 4+) there.

I would suggest that for any HSR to steal away TOM traffic from the airlines, they will also have to operate trains hourly or bi-hourly.

Personally, I think that in our context HSR would only steal traffic from the least time sensitive business passengers. What it might have a better chance of pulling off is stealing some auto traffic and generating new traffic by making smaller centres like Kingston more accessible. Undoubtedly, HSR could turn Kingston into a Toronto bedroom community. Small law firms, accounting offices, engineering consultancies, etc. based in Kingston or Belleville could easily maintaint clients in Toronto if they were only an hour to an hour and a half away. Heck, companies in Nanaimo do business in Vancouver and fly in their staff using float plane taxi services at $80 a trip. This would be quite similar (albeit the difference being ferry to air cuts 2 hrs to 20 mins).

And this is how HSR actually generates economic activity. It creates larger markets. Particularly for service companies. Whereas a potential client was 2.5 hours away. They are now 1.5 hours. In effect, HSR virtually relocates the company's office from Kingston to Oshawa. Heck, HSR could also do the same thing for anybody's dating life!

If this thing ever comes to fruition, I'm investing in Kingston (soon to be a bedroom community of Toronto, Ottawa and Montreal).

Every HSR line that has ever opened has decimated air traffic. Air traffic between Madrid and Barcelona fell by 40% in only two years after that line opened. Probably more since. TOM would be no different. When there's an option, there's a clear preference for HSR over flying. I think it goes without saying that there would be at least hourly trains.

I totally agree with your second point - it would make the corridor a much smaller place.

The real question is this: is the sum of the benefits (reduced pressure on the highway network and airports, increased scheduling flexibility, increased economic potential) greater than the expense of building such a system? Not only in terms of capital expenses, but operating. I mean, Acela operates in the densent corridor in North America, and its profits per passenger, while decent, are not extremely high. Would such a service here even break even? Or would it require an on-going subsidy?

It would not only break even, it would make profits so big that the government would make back its investment on profits alone, without even counting economic development and other hard to define benefits. Real HSR is a lot faster than Acela.

Edit - someone pointed out that Acela makes a profit of $41 a passenger. You only consider that decent? With oh let's say 10 million annual riders, that's $410 million in profit every year. And real HSR would have better numbers than that.

Does Kingston even want to be a bedroom community of TOM? What will this added growth do to existing municipal services, or property values? How will a City with a relatively low amount of high income residents raise the funds necessary to fund what would amount to significant improvements in their infrastructure? People wouldn't move to Kingston to buy a condo next to the rail station, they would move there to buy a McMansion that's a 15 minute drive from the rail station. All questions to consider.

Something tells me Kingston would welcome any growth it can get. It would finance growth the same way any municipality does - development charges, taxes from new residents, etc.

 

[gweed123]

Something tells me Kingston would welcome any growth it can get. It would finance growth the same way any municipality does - development charges, taxes from new residents, etc.

But my point is that the type of development you would get would be exactly what we would want to avoid. People aren't going to put up with a 1hr HSR ride to live in a townhouse or in a new urbanist subdivision. They're going to want to live on 1 acre rural estate subdivision lots. Why? Because if you wanted a townhouse, you could get that in Brampton for a lot less hassle than it would be in Kingston. If you want a rural estate lot in the GTA, in the west you would need to go past Milton. The area between Milton and Guelph is littered with rural estate subdivisions. Not exactly something you want to replicate.

Encouraging this type of growth would been not encouraging urban sprawl, but encouraging exurban sprawl, which is even worse. I have no doubt that the City of Kingston would welcome the tax revenues brought in from these developments, but they would be the epitome of bad planning. The City of Kingston, like the City of Ottawa, has a large amount of rural land within its borders (along Highway 15, you drive for at least 15 minutes inside of the Geographic City of Kingston before you even hit the 401). Turning this land into an exurban paradise is not exactly what the Province wants to see happen.

 

[ssiguy2]

Do I think HSR is waste of money?.....no. That said it's a matter of priorities and the money would be far better spent on mass transit for the hundreds of thousands who would take that every day as opposed to the few extra thousand HSR would pull in.
They should definately improve the QC/Win corridor and increase speed but leave the big money for transit expansion.
If they do get HSR then the feds would have do, due to politics, bring in fasy rail between Cal/Edm which is badly needed as right now you cannot get to the nations 4th largest city on a train from any direction.
If they build HSR it should go from Mon to Tor and NOT stop in Ottawa. That is where most of the traffic is and diverting and stopping in Ottawa would slow the speed of the train do so much that it would be no faster than the current line.
Win/Lon/Tor/Mon/QC and that's it with a potential spur line from Tor to Ott and Mon to Ott but it should not be part of the main trunk line. No stops between Tor and London as they can use commuter rail to get to Tor and London desperately needs better rail service as London is the 4th busiest VIA rail station in the country.

 

[ssiguy2]

Do I think HSR is waste of money?.....no. That said it's a matter of priorities and the money would be far better spent on mass transit for the hundreds of thousands who would take that every day as opposed to the few extra thousand HSR would pull in.
They should definately improve the QC/Win corridor and increase speed but leave the big money for transit expansion.
If they do get HSR then the feds would have do, due to politics, bring in fasy rail between Cal/Edm which is badly needed as right now you cannot get to the nations 4th largest city on a train from any direction.
If they build HSR it should go from Mon to Tor and NOT stop in Ottawa. That is where most of the traffic is and diverting and stopping in Ottawa would slow the speed of the train do so much that it would be no faster than the current line.
Win/Lon/Tor/Mon/QC and that's it with a potential spur line from Tor to Ott and Mon to Ott but it should not be part of the main trunk line. No stops between Tor and London as they can use commuter rail to get to Tor and London desperately needs better rail service as London is the 4th busiest VIA rail station in the country.