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407 Rail Freight Bypass/The Missing Link

A single track is totally useless to met CN need as well its new Milton yard. It has to be duel track from day one for CN alone. You move CP to this line, there needs to be 3 tracks, otherwise you are looking for trouble down the road. Better off with 4.

This announcement is very miss leading in many ways and giving people false hope and impressions.

You will be lucky to see construction before 2024 and what is going to happen for more service on both lines until the construction is completed???

Best to get that 3rd track built on the Milton Line that was supposed to be completed in 2011 as well in the downtown Brampton before getting this future line.

Until all parties have sign the agreement, knowing the full route, but most of all, "What Is The Cost To Build This Line and Who Is PAYING for It, it all talk. Talk is cheap.

What happens to this idea if the PC or NDP gain power in 2018??? I can see this going on the back burner if the Lib loose in 2018.

There is so many unknown at this time, its a guessing game with people drawing lines on a map that will never see the day of light.

Don't forget the 401 is to be expanded to 10-12 lanes up to Hwy 25
 
I share @drum118's general skepticism about whether ML and QP are up to the task here. ML is only one change of government away from going out of business. Del Duca talks a good streak but I doubt either he or Wynne understand just how many moving parts there are behind this. ML is able to execute smaller projects - so long as no one holds them to a schedule or budget - but this is a new trail and all the politics and urban impacts haven't been tabled. It will take two years just to crystalise the concept and deal with some substantial opposition in Peel (and Vaughan).

A two-track freight line ought to be sufficient for the next couple of decades, but room for a third track needs to be roughed in. US railroads put 60 or more trains a day over double track. CN and CP are lucky to run 24 a day west of Toronto. CP's absence means little - the more that gets done without them, the less they can leverage their participation in negotiations.

- Paul
 
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Now that the province has gone public about an agreement with CN, does that compel CP to come to the table? Maybe this isn't just publicity, but also a tactic to get CP to negotiate, lest it get left out and miss out on the benefits to them.

The freight bypass for CN was a no-brainer. It frees up the Kitchener line and removes freight from Georgetown and Brampton city centres (to meet province's interest), and it connects directly with CN's ROW at Halwest, saving CN distance and time.

To bring CP on board in the same right-of-way, it requires CN to agree to CP being in their proximity, and/or a federal government directive. CN arguably has a competitive advantage with the location of their Halton and York subs, as the derailment damage risks are further away from sensitive residential areas (CP rans through burbs in Mississauga and midtown Toronto, can you imagine the potential lawsuits and damage costs?), so allowing CP to run parallel is letting them piggyback off of that. If it's not that, it's something else, because I heard way back that when this idea of a joint freight bypass was floated by CN and CP, CP was totally on board and CN balked. Take that with whatever grain of salt you want, I'm not prepared to reveal how I know that and what my source was.

So with that said, I feel like this is a publicity stunt, but I'm not sure how the pieces are arranged or what the final play is.

I will also add that this re-arrangement does not preclude building a completely new bypass somewhere else for CP. The Halton sub between Milton and Georgetown is now completely free. And the GTA West EA is under review. Maybe the two can mesh to create a new CP bypass. Crazy idea, but who knows.

faq-study%20area%20map.jpg
 
So with that said, I feel like this is a publicity stunt, but I'm not sure how the pieces are arranged or what the final play is.

I will also add that this re-arrangement does not preclude building a completely new bypass somewhere else for CP. The Halton sub between Milton and Georgetown is now completely free. And the GTA West EA is under review. Maybe the two can mesh to create a new CP bypass. Crazy idea, but who knows.
I think a lot of us were 'sucked in' with the early claims of a "Big, really big announcement". It's offensive, not much different than a 'bait and switch'. I started to feel like my (and others') cynicism before the announcement was made was unwarranted in retrospect. In fact, it was completely warranted.

Be aware, though, that GTA West, if not dead, is unconscious:
The province is pausing an environmental assessment of a controversial proposed GTA highway that would have connected Vaughan and Milton, likely by cutting through parts of the greenbelt.

The Ministry of Transportation announced it was suspending its environmental assessment work on the GTA West Highway — also known as Highway 413 — on Wednesday, but said it will review the project and provide an update in the spring.

In a statement, Transport Minister Steven Del Duca said he wants to make sure the province has the "right transportation network in place."

"With new emerging technologies and a steadfast commitment to protect our natural heritage in Ontario, including the Greenbelt, it is essential to have a forward looking plan when it comes to relieving congestion," he said.

The 800,000-hectare Greenbelt forms a ring of land north of the city where development is restricted. The intention was to protect areas such as the Niagara Escarpment and the Oak Ridges Moraine from rampant development.

The environmental assessment was set to determine the route for the highway. [...]
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-highway-413-study-1.3367853

CP's absence means little - the more that gets done without them, the less they can leverage their participation in negotiations.
In the absence of any kind of meaningful media coverage on this, that appears to be the default logic...short of Transport Canada (Transport Minister actually) invoking the Transportation Act to force the issue.

CP's head office may feel (perhaps rightly so) that silence is better than the bad PR of being obstructive.

One thing is beyond doubt: This "announcement" has less fizz than a damp squib.
 
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As a side note to the discussion of using Hwy RoW, a very interesting piece here with reams of links: (I was researching the use of medians in hwys, an idea that has advantage for passenger, but little for freight). The site is very similar to UrbanToronto.
[...]
Urban Rail

For urban rail, the reason to use highways is that, in most of North America, they’re everywhere, and they’re usually equipped with generous medians and shoulders, allowing relatively cheap placement of rail tracks. Of note, this is generally not the cheapest option: construction on extant (often disused) rail rights-of-way tends to be cheaper. However, in many cases, a rail right-of-way is unavailable, hosts heavy freight traffic, has been permanently turned into a trail, or has commuter trains without integration into the rest of the urban transit network. Examples include the Dan Ryan half of the Red Line and both halves of the Blue Line in Chicago, the Orange and Silver Lines in Washington, the outer ends of BART, the Spadina line in Toronto, and several light rail lines. Often they run on one side of the road, but more frequently they’re in the median, which was often reserved for it when the road was built (as in Chicago and Calgary).

The problem is that nobody wants to live, work, or hang out next to a busy grade-separated road. Living or working a kilometer or two away, with easy access by car, is great for the driver, but within close walking distance, there is just too much noise, pollution, and blight, and the pedestrian environment is unwelcoming. The transit-oriented development in Metrotown and Arlington could not have happened next to a freeway. Christof Spieler frames this as a decision of spending more money on routing trains near where people live versus staying on the easy rights-of-way. But this isn’t quite right: the Expo Line in Vancouver was assembled out of an interurban right-of-way and a city center tunnel, both out of service; the line’s high ridership comes from subsequent development next to Metrotown and other stations. [...]
2014/09/01
Putting Rail Lines in Highway Medians
https://pedestrianobservations.wordpress.com/2014/09/01/putting-rail-lines-in-highway-medians/
 
I'm a little more optimistic than others on the chances of the bypass getting support in the 2018 election. The folks in KW are going to put a lot of pressure on all parties to support this. The Mayor of Toronto is supportive. The full Missing Link was pegged at around $5B but that was with CP rail. We'll see what the design study says. Given the level of cooperation between the provincial and federal Liberals I really can't see how there could be political challenges between the two governments.

The calculation for the cost will also be interesting. If Metrolinx pays for the bypass, do they get Bramalea to Georgetown for free from CN? Including the investment CN made in the Credit River bridge expansion? If the design study takes two to four years. Why couldn't constructions start in 2020? I find the notion of 2024 too pessimistic given the political support from places along the line and the fact that there is an existing transportation corridor in place (the 407).
 
If Metrolinx pays for the bypass, do they get Bramalea to Georgetown for free from CN?
Metrolinx certainly won't be 'paying'. Neither will the Province...albeit the Province would *fully participate* with some monies and with granting parcels of land on the Hydro One RoW (...proviso...before Hydro One is privatized, albeit *access* to the land is written into the Ont Electricity Act). It's the Feds who would bankroll the most, but even that won't be w/o provisos, and rightly so. To best answer your question, the "$5B" figure bandied by some (and mentioned in the Municipality Report linked back one page) doesn't detail *trades and offsets*, which will ameliorate a lot of the dollar figure.

Here's one of the most important factors behind CN suddenly 'finding God and caring':
(Apologies, don't have latest Cdn figures, but they're just as bad if not worse, indications of this drop have been made for last six months)
US rail traffic
Every Wednesday morning, the AAR (Association of American Railroads) releases the weekly rail traffic data for the previous week. The latest report is for the week ended June 4, 2016.

During this week, the total number of US railcars fell to just above 224,000 units, reflecting a fall of 16.6% from 269,000 units in the week ended June 6, 2015.
http://marketrealist.com/2016/06/us...t-fall-in-north-america-in-week-ended-june-4/

CN and CP are laying off staff, Canada has been hit even harder than the US for rail oil shipments and coal. CN's being at that "announcement" in Kitchener (which remains unreported in any of the major media) is as genuine and caring as an alligator. We can only conjecture what the back-room conversations are, but CP might be assembling a case to present too, just didn't want an announcement to fizzle the way this one has.

And it has. If anyone thinks otherwise, then by all means link and quote it here. I'm getting tired of Googling this and coming up empty. No shortage of communities affected running the "two extra trains a day" spiel....with hardly, if any, mention of the freight bypass.

Look at it this way: If this was a really substantial development, the news media, desperate for any sort of news that sells, would be all over this. They're not. I was checking the Guelph press. Guelph Mercury (the shell that still exists) is running the K/W Record copy, and Guelph Today, now the most virile news source in Guelph, doesn't even mention the two trains a day, let alone a freight bypass.

Edit to Add: I stand corrected on Guelph Today. They must have run it yesterday, albeit I checked and couldn't see this story. It's not up today.
It might not mean all-day GO train service for Guelph just yet, but Tuesday’s announcement in Kitchener was a step in the right direction.

Premier Kathleen Wynne announced a number of improvements to GO service along the Kitchener to Toronto corridor Tuesday, including four new GO train runs for Guelph: two in the morning and two in the evening.

She also announced an agreement has been reached with CN Rail to build a new line that would take the freight traffic off the current line, helping clear the way for possible all-day commuter service along the Kitchener to Toronto corridor.

The new GO train runs in Guelph will bring the total to four morning and four evening trains. They start in September.

“This is great news for Guelph. It’s all about connectivity,” said Guelph Mayor Cam Guthrie.

“It’s not just for people. This will make for a lot better access for the university and businesses as well.”

Guthrie joined mayors from municipalities all along the corridor in welcoming Tuesday’s announcement in Kitchener. All-day commuter service remains the ultimate goal.

“To make all-day, two-way commuter trains work we need to have a corridor specifically for GO service,” Guthrie said, adding that this removes one of the hurdles to that goal.

The exact times of the new Guelph runs won’t be announced until later this summer.

“I think it's a great leap forward,” said Guelph’s Steve Petric, who commutes to Toronto daily for work.

“The two additional trains in the short term will give commuters more flexibility and options to when they start and stop work or travel to the GTA as the current schedules can make it a tad difficult,” said Petric, who hopes the increased service will cut down on the 90 minute commute from Guelph.

“Many of us ‘Day 1’ Guelph GO riders have been waiting a long time for these additional two trains.”

Guelph MPP Liz Sandals said in 2014 the government said within 10 years there would be “two-way, all-day regional express rail.”

“The problem has always been that with the existing pecking order on the track, it’s freight, then VIA, then GO,” she said. “You can not have two-way, all-day service if your primary customer on the track is great big, long, slow freight trains. Regional express rail and great big, long, slow freight trains don’t go together.”

Sandals said there is a stretch of the track that is controlled by CN, and there is a lot of freight traffic over that particular stretch.

“So what we have agreed on in principle with CN – and it’s just a matter of working out the details, but the details are substantial – is we’re going to build a new line from Brampton to Milton which will allow the freight to bypass that Brampton to Georgetown section of track. And the freight will be able to avoid our section. And that means since most of the freight will be off this section of track, that means we can now go ahead with regional express rail.”

It means two-way, all-day will be possible, she said. And it also means the entire section from Union Station to Kitchener can be electrified. (It was previously announced that Union Station to Bramalea would be electrified because it was owned by the province).

“Now that we’re going to get most freight off Bramalea west, that means we will be able to complete electrification all the way to Kitchener,” she said. “Bottom-line, we can do what we said we would do, which is all-day, two-way regional express rail, and it will ultimately be electric, which means not only will we have better commuter service and get people off the roads, so we cut down on pollution that way, but because we will be able to electrify the strip, we will also get the diesel trains off the strip, so we will cut down on pollution that way.”

She said it’s a great commuter story, and a great climate change story.
https://www.guelphtoday.com/local-n...ional-go-train-runs-starting-this-fall-317199

"(Sandals) said it’s a great commuter story, and a great climate change story."

Liz, I like you, but that's pretty desperate. Spin it for all it's worth.
“The two additional trains in the short term will give commuters more flexibility and options to when they start and stop work or travel to the GTA as the current schedules can make it a tad difficult,” said Petric, who hopes the increased service will cut down on the 90 minute commute from Guelph.
Petric is often quoted in the local press on GO matters. He's been drinking the Kool-Aid. It will still take 90 minutes (or more, depending if you go into Union or not). Mayor Guthrie, who I've jammed with (he's a drummer) and had dealings with, a great guy on a personal level, states:
“It’s not just for people. This will make for a lot better access for the university and businesses as well.”
What business is going to realize an advantage through this? There might be an odd one, but by and large, two-way all day municipal bus service between Guelph and K/W would do a lot more. Of course, Guelph's bus service has actually been strangled under the latest City Hall regime. Georgetown, btw, has *absolutely no local bus service!*

"Connectivity" begins at home...

Here's a bet, folks: *Total numbers* of passengers carried with the two new trains added will be barely changed, and they run at maybe 10% if that capacity from Georgetown west as it is. I'd get on the later morning train, and have my choice of seating on the entire upper deck of the car I'd board many times.

I'm by no means against running these routes, it has to be done, but I have trouble accepting that running virtually empty 10 and 12 car trains is the way to do it.
 
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I'm a little more optimistic than others on the chances of the bypass getting support in the 2018 election. The folks in KW are going to put a lot of pressure on all parties to support this. The Mayor of Toronto is supportive.

Milton, Mississauga, and Brampton Council all endorsed this, so you'd think it's a slam-dunk. But I suspect the neighbourhoods that are affected (and there are some) haven't truly woken up to this yet. When they do - will the pols take the courageous stance? I doubt it. They will look for some silver bullet, or advocate for some mitigating goodies.

That's another argument for keeping CP out of this, just yet. So far it is the same CN traffic, just taking a better route. Nobody (other than those adjoining the 407) can say 'we are getting more trains in our community'. When CP agrees to come in - watch Vaughan and Markham react. (I have a hardnosed counter position - "You want a Yonge Subway extension? Here's the quid pro quo". But I'm not in politics.)

The calculation for the cost will also be interesting. If Metrolinx pays for the bypass, do they get Bramalea to Georgetown for free from CN? Including the investment CN made in the Credit River bridge expansion?

I don't believe CN expects a two-track, high-speed, super railway. They would probably prefer a single track line with good sidings and total grade separation.....and cash in the bank. If they need more capacity, they can come back later and add more track. The Milton-Georgetown section is a headache for them now - the double track stretches are too short for today's longer trains, and have crossings in the middle. And it is a steep grade up to Georgetown.

I'm sure there is already an accountant's position on the book value of the Bramalea-Milton line, down to the depreciated value of each length of rail, the market value of the land, etc etc. Just as there will be a position on the book value of the line they are receiving. CN is giving up a longer line that they have invested in for a shorter line. You can be sure that CN's view of the book values favours their current line.

Their objective is not to trade one line for the other. It is to allow them to continue to earn today's revenue with a smaller capital base. And harvest the difference in the capital base as cash. So what they have is worth lots and what they are getting from GO is worth lots less, and they will expect GO to make up the difference in cash.

Look at it this way: If this was a really substantial development, the news media, desperate for any sort of news that sells, would be all over this. They're not. I was checking the Guelph press. Guelph Mercury (the shell that still exists) is running the K/W Record copy, and Guelph Today, now the most virile news source in Guelph, doesn't even mention the two trains a day, let alone a freight bypass.

Well, it wasn't the slow news week that Wynne's handlers were probably hoping for. Nonetheless, I do believe the media is getting smart enough to spot deja moo when they smell it. A ten-year goal with no announcement of contracts issued, funds committed, or any constituency speaking out either for or against the goal is not newsworthy, especially the second time around. There was a remarkable lack of skin placed in the game in this announcement.

Here's a bet, folks: *Total numbers* of passengers carried with the two new trains added will be barely changed, and they run at maybe 10% if that capacity from Georgetown west as it is. I'd get on the later morning train, and have my choice of seating on the entire upper deck of the car I'd board many times.

I'm by no means against running these routes, it has to be done, but I have trouble accepting that running virtually empty 10 and 12 car trains is the way to do it.

The older strategy talks about 30 minute peak service, and this accomplishes that. So they will tick off a check mark anyways and declare victory. But I totally agree with your point. We need six-car trains (or less) making frequent round trips between the two cities to build a passenger base and broaden the constituency.

The gap in third track in Brampton is what.....four hundred meters? The third track at the Credit Bridge is roughed in, right? @drum118 makes a good point. It can't cost $5B or take 8 years to address those. Make those changes, see how many diesel trains that enables, and add some track to allow 2-way service west of Georgetown. Then, think about the Bypass as a 'further step'.

- Paul
 
Correct. Two tracks with the third roughed in. Map here.

@drum118 makes a good point. It can't cost $5B or take 8 years to address those. Make those changes, see how many diesel trains that enables, and add some track to allow 2-way service west of Georgetown. Then, think about the Bypass as a 'further step'.

- Paul
 
We need six-car trains (or less) making frequent round trips between the two cities to build a passenger base and broaden the constituency.

The gap in third track in Brampton is what.....four hundred meters? The third track at the Credit Bridge is roughed in, right? @drum118 makes a good point. It can't cost $5B or take 8 years to address those. Make those changes, see how many diesel trains that enables, and add some track to allow 2-way service west of Georgetown. Then, think about the Bypass as a 'further step'.
This is a crucial point. To distill it down to a simpler phrase: "They're wasting ammunition".

When the massive figures of "$Billions" are being tossed around, you really have to wonder how much could be accomplished with a fraction of that to have separate two car trains, perhaps DEMUs usable when electrification happens (perhaps even within out lifetime?) which won't be cheap when adding in service and storage facilities, but it might allow serving stations and lines that at present, are too light to consider, and act as feeders, not to mention more frequent service over the present routes. If VIA can make a go (pun not intended...honest) of running two car trains, the model has been established.

Normally I wouldn't suggest the outlay of capital to do this, but man...with the Billions being touted, one has to wonder: 'What are the alternatives'. They have to be discussed.

It would certainly be a lot easier to do passing loops for two car trains than 10 or 12, not to mention acceleration and braking time. And that applies to allowing freights to pass. On a frequent timetable with adequate passing loops, time delays due to freight will be a lot less critical than peak-time trains carrying workers to and from jobs.
 
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So you're suggesting that rather than building a bypass? Metrolinx should upgrade the existing Kitchener Corridor and keep freight trains and RER on the same line? Even if this was possible, CN has clearly said no. If they had said yes, I assume that an EA will already be underway for a third track through Brampton. Even if it's cheaper to build a third track, it's clear that CN wanted the bypass and that's what the government will have to do. Unless the Federal government forced CN to except RER on their line. Apologies if I misunderstood your point.

This is a crucial point. To distill it down to a simpler phrase: "They're wasting ammunition".

When the massive figures of "$Billions" are being tossed around, you really have to wonder how much could be accomplished with a fraction of that to have separate two car trains, perhaps DEMUs usable when electrification happens (perhaps even within out lifetime?) which won't be cheap when adding in service and storage facilities, but it might allow serving stations and lines that at present, are too light to consider, and act as feeders, not to mention more frequent service over the present routes. If VIA can make a go (pun not intended...honest) of running two car trains, the model has been established.

Normally I wouldn't suggest the outlay of capital to do this, but man...with the Billions being touted, one has to wonder: 'What are the alternatives'. They have to be discussed.
 
I'm wondering if this bypass is built will CN shift it's Bala Sub freight to CP's MacTier Sub? so that it opens up the possibility of Richmond Hill GO electrification?
 
Just wait.

As far as I know, the chess pieces of infrastructure carrots for the 2018 election are just being placed.

The Freight Bypass specifically for CN is likely critically germane to unlocking a massive Corridor rail expansion and electrification (commuter, HSR, VIA, whatever) which captures almost half of Canada's electorate along the full length -- important both provincially and federally. Play the cards correctly, and you see red re-elected at both levels in 2018 from a transportation-angry crowd.

The fact that CN just gave their blessing to a Bypass, is still Biiiiiig news to me -- Maybe a few less "i" warranted in the middle of "Biiiiig" but still multiple -- even if it's just a paper agreement in principle -- and won't happen till 2030.

In gamification terms, several dozens "Achievement Unlocked" occurs simultaneously if the Bypass miraculously gets approved for construction during the 2018-2022 term, with a several percentage-point multiplier added to elections. And a huge many promises gets "Proimiseable Unlocked: Proceed in making the promise", such as being able to confidently promise full Corridor electrification (even if not full-fledged HSR).

This may potentially heave the electorate percentage quite significantly, depending on how all levels of governments sell it (especially if Trudeau sells instead of more-controversial Wynne). Even if it is merely a "now-realistic-looking" promise made in 2018 or 2022 for something that actually begins construction 2030-2040. Several commuter rail systems will already have electrification under construction, which shows "it's all actually happening".

Assuming a cascade of ribbon cuttings occur (Ottawa LRT, ION LRT, Crosstown LRT, sections of GO RER/ST electrification, York TTC) and lots of shovels occuring (VIA HFR, GO RER, DRL, whatever Scarborough Rapid Transit, etc), the pressure on the Bypass becomes more intense.

The stakes are so high, you can bet a [bleep]load of action is occuring behind-the-scenes, now that the Bypass is afoot. Wait more than a dozen of months for some even bigger Biiiiig Bypass news.

Prize is #elxn2018
 
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Even if this was possible, CN has clearly said no.
Actually not at all. What they have stated is "no catenary". CN is singing a different song of late on sharing tracks. Plus RER as you are premising is electric. I stated DEMU *that can later run on electric*. The present UPX Sharyos need a wholesale conversion, bogies and all.

There is a challenge to sourcing FRA compliant DEMUs, but that's a separate subject. What I'm touting, in lieu of the very disappointing "link announcement" is finding something workable and affordable that can happen in the *next few years*. And do it with rolling stock that is forward compatible to electrification *when* it comes.
and won't happen till 2030.
Case in point. The GTA needs relief not now, but twenty years ago. How much longer do we have to wait for Godot?
The fact that CN just gave their blessing to a Bypass,
There was an "Agreement in Principle".

Show me that agreement...and I'll tell you whether it's "blessed" or not.
 
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