Will Tory face stronger opposition from the Left or a right-wing populist in the next election?

[Videodrome]

I figured it was a good time to bring back this topic, now that people are apparently growing tired of Tory's policies. Has anyone come forward as a credible opponent?

 

[animatronic]

I figured it was a good time to bring back this topic, now that people are apparently growing tired of Tory's policies. Has anyone come forward as a credible opponent?

Nope.

Closest would be KWT - with her Expo 2025 play she's the only councillor building campaign machinery beyond her own ward. Tory would be unlikely to face a right-wing challenge so the biggest risk would be a liberal or NDP MP/MPP making the jump. Provincial liberal most likely since they are in trouble for re-election.

 

[pman]

It's hard to see anyone from the old City win unless two reasonably strong candidates split the suburban vote. While Tory is a terrible mayor (SmartTrack, SSE, Gardiner East), he has become a savvy politician who knows that he has to cater to suburban voters to win reelection. There's no need for a suburban challenger given the fact that Tory is basically the reasonable face of the Mamolitti - Karygianis - Pasternak crowd. Toronto is what it is, sadly.

 

[duper]

Tory would be unlikely to face a right-wing challenge so the biggest risk would be a liberal or NDP MP/MPP making the jump. Provincial liberal most likely since they are in trouble for re-election.

NDP, yes, but it's hard to see the Liberals fielding a candidate, given that the Ontario Liberals commitment on infrastructure dovetails well with Tory's plan.

 

[animatronic]

NDP, yes, but it's hard to see the Liberals fielding a candidate, given that the Ontario Liberals commitment on infrastructure dovetails well with Tory's plan.

There are lots of liberal cabinet ministers looking to their Spring 2018 election and not relishing spending four years on the backbench. Some of them will nope out - or lose their seat and roll right into a mayoral campaign. Unless Wynne can turn things around look to MPPs like Murray, Milczyn, or Hoskins to test the waters. For the NDP there's Di Novo and Tabuns.

 

[toaster29]

I began reading this thread today, and was intrigued about the discussion of a "Bernie" type candidate. These big government left councillors are not what Bernie was about. He was much more libertarian/social-democrat. Never in a million years would he be caught trying to tell you what to do on your land, what you can/can't smoke or how big of a pop you should be able to buy. I consider myself far left (on things like universal pharmacare, free tuition, guaranteed income) but would never in a million year would I vote for a Wong-Tam, Vaughan, (Mike) Layton type candidate for mayor.

 

[MetroMan]

Shelley Carroll has been on the verge of running for Mayor several times. She nearly got her shot when Giambrone dropped out but Pantalone got the nod instead. Second term re-election campaigns usually draw these sorts of "let her give it a try" candidates. I don't expect a big bet from the left in 2018.

Doug Ford will almost certainly want to run again if denied a provincial seat. He's not his brother so I don't think he can generate the same type of interest. I have a feeling that a lack scandals, a generally boring term with lots of ribbon cutting and a well oiled PR machine will lead to little interest and low voter turnout, resulting in Tory's reelection.

If there's ranked balloting in 2022, then I'll expect a stacked field of competitors vying for the Mayor's office.

 

[wild goose chase]

I wonder if Toronto could ever get a left-wing populist, rather than a right-wing populist. I'm imagining a figure who unites the left-leaning, social democratic residents of the old city with new immigrants and visible minorities who may be more working class (and who would have formerly been enthusiastically Ford Nation). Toronto's answer to Bernie Sanders' campaign or earlier in US history, Jesse Jackson's Chicago-based Rainbow Coalition. Is this at all possible?

 

[Midtown Urbanist]

I wonder if Toronto could ever get a left-wing populist, rather than a right-wing populist. I'm imagining a figure who unites the left-leaning, social democratic residents of the old city with new immigrants and visible minorities who may be more working class (and who would have formerly been enthusiastically Ford Nation). Toronto's answer to Bernie Sanders' campaign or earlier in US history, Jesse Jackson's Chicago-based Rainbow Coalition. Is this at all possible?

I don't think so for the same reasons why the NDP can't even make inroads in downtown Toronto in recent elections.

Toronto politically is largely a Red Tory/Blue Liberal city. Condo owners downtown may be more socially progressive but I think as more election cycles pass by it will become more evident that condo owners largely conform to these Torontonian values and be similar voting demographic to Midtown/North Toronto. These kinds of residents alongside with traditional Liberal voting base will dominate all downtown wards/districts and as a demographic is only going to grow in the coming decades.

Immigrants in this city also to my impression quickly adopt the values of the locals here, especially politically. I think they may be a more likely part of a small-c conservative coalition than a part of a left-leaning popular movement.

 

[King of Kensington]

De Blasio did that in New York - and won Manhattan which also has a large socially progressive/fiscally conservative demographic. Even though he's really more of an establishment Democrat.

I don't think Parkdale, Danforth and Davenport were lost in the federal election because of "gentrification" (they're the kind of areas Bernie Sanders would have done well in), but it may have put what used to be called Trinity-Spadina (now split into Fort York and University-Rosedale ridings) out of play, or at least much harder for the NDP to win.

 

[TrickyRicky]

pman, Tory is considered a terrible Mayor by a small group of urban enthusiasts and downtown left-wing columnists. 80% of the rest of the city think he is the best Mayor Toronto has ever had. He has zero chance of missing re-election if he choses to run again.

 

[adma]

pman, Tory is considered a terrible Mayor by a small group of urban enthusiasts and downtown left-wing columnists. 80% of the rest of the city think he is the best Mayor Toronto has ever had. He has zero chance of missing re-election if he choses to run again.

I wouldn't go *that* far with the 80% claim--remember that a lot of people would *still* choose Rob Ford over John Tory as far as best-Mayors-ever go. But much as in the 2003 election, he probably "shadows" David Miller, popularity-wise--and in a way, his blessing would be to face a "Jane Pitfield of the left" in 2018...

 

[TheTigerMaster]

I wonder if Toronto could ever get a left-wing populist, rather than a right-wing populist. I'm imagining a figure who unites the left-leaning, social democratic residents of the old city with new immigrants and visible minorities who may be more working class (and who would have formerly been enthusiastically Ford Nation). Toronto's answer to Bernie Sanders' campaign or earlier in US history, Jesse Jackson's Chicago-based Rainbow Coalition. Is this at all possible?

Watching politics around the globe recently, I've come to the realization that ideas don't matter so much as the personality and charisma of the people who are presenting them.

Could Toronto see a left-wing Sander's style populist with a bold vision of Toronto's future? Sure, I don't doubt that. It's not so much a question of if its possible, but rather a question of if we have the right candidate.

 

[animatronic]

Now that we're on the back half of the current term we should probably start 2018 mayoral election and 2018 council election threads.

2014 mayoral:
http://urbantoronto.ca/forum/threads/2014-municipal-election-toronto-mayoral-race.20317/

2014 council:
http://urbantoronto.ca/forum/threads/2014-municipal-election-toronto-council-races.20318/

2014 trustee:
http://urbantoronto.ca/forum/thread...ol-board-catholic-school-board-trustee.20894/

Given that this is the most advanced mayoral thread on the board, suggest that we rename it "2018 Municipal Election: Toronto Mayoral Race" so that it's not just about Tory. Thoughts?

 

[TheTigerMaster]

There are three million people in this city. One of you must be able to stop Tory.