The coalition is dead. The mere whiff of it would probably cost the Liberals a few points in the polls (future Conservatives smear campaign maybe?). For better or for worse most Canadian seem to have no affinity for a coalition government right now, least of all a Liberal-NDP one.
I hate when points like this are used to debate. How does he have no mandate to rule? Like it or not in parliamentary democracies if you have the confidence of the house, you get to rule. Arguments like this are ridiculous. You can disagree with the man's policies vigorously, but let's not re-define centuries of democratic practice to suit your political whims.
Of course he has the right to govern if they vote confidence in the government, but he has no mandate when there is no political party he could align with and he is such a small percent of the vote.
I'm not redefining the political system, I'm explaining how people already think. Harper isn't well liked and if his policies have to be moderated by a Liberal party that will only vote confidence when he has Liberal-esque statements and platforms, then it wrongly makes the Conservative party look more moderate and gives them standing to win a majority in the future.
Just because a coalition is a new concept in the Canadian political arena doesn't mean its not a better alternative. Remind you the concept behind a coalition government is that the parties involved retain their differences and identities, they don't merge into an akward marriage of convenience, they are free to leave one another whenever they please. But its a plan to work together to make sure Harper, whose government doesn't have a mandate, doesn't have the power.
I love how you say I'm redefining the entire political system, however. You sound like a lawyer trying to grasp at an argument rather than just listen and discuss. I have no power over these policies or what the parties do, I just have ideas.
My ideas can be wrong, but I like to discuss them in open dialogue. My ideas aren't as 'wrong' as you'd like to believe, no one can know the pulse of Canadians and know what they want at all times, and that is the attitude I think a lot of people have because of the poll-culture.
Polls are a general snapshot of a particular time in history, and those opinions can be changed significantly with new developments over a very short period of time. Of course Canadians say they hate a coalition, but a poll is a poll. Reality is that Harper will get to continue to govern if Ignatieff chooses to support the government, and if he chose to bring the government down and run an election he may not even win a minority government. AND
if Iggy won a minority gov't, he'd still have to get the NDP and possibly the Bloc on board to not vote against his budgets, not so very different from an official coalition yet he has no guarantee on paper that they won't bring the government down for 3 years.
Erase the waste of an election and the costs associated with it, just forge a coalition and be done with it. Its such of a pragmatic way of doing things. They made a 3 year committment with a 2 year agreement from the Bloc. That's far more stable than anything I've seen out of anticipating an election every few months with this hideous Harper on Probation thing. You can't keep an entire nation on edge like that and it work long term as a political strategy.
If the Liberals want a strategy to build the party, I say forge a coalition with the NDP and get it in writing that the government won't be brought down for 3 years. Use that 3 years to build the party's financial coffers, prove they can work with other people (the NDP) to achieve the goals Canadians want, and set a date for an election in 3 years in writing and have the agreement with all three parties.
After the 3 years is over with, campaign and market like crazy how the Liberals were willing to work with others despite differences to pull Canada out of economic recession and to stand up for the values Canadians believe in. Market the party as a party willing to take sacrifice in order to achieve a common Canadian purpose. Market the party as a party that didn't have total control but rather a party of consensus building, and the problems that may have occurred are because the party didn't have "real power". Someone needs to really change the Liberal marketing machine in this new era, this probation thing isn't a permanent party building tactic... Once the Liberals are independent enough to really run an independent campaign the party can then try to achieve majority status again with the new respect it earned.
People will respect the Liberals more when they see that the party tried to work for something and overcame differences to work with others in such an unstable time. As much as Canadians disliked the coalition idea (an opinion that could be changed overnight if they saw an effective Liberal-NDP coalition), they don't want to be dragged through elections every year or year and a half even more (an opinion that won't be changed until the threat of an election every few months or year stops). They want effective, good government. That's an across the board Canadian value.
I guarantee you one thing a poll cannot tell you: if the Liberal party proves it can work with the NDP for several years to get results for Canada, people will ask them why they are wasting a vote on the NDP and will vote for a majority. If the coalition doesn't work, however, its true I could see it hurting the Liberals and they'd have to find another leader.
But after 3 years, that isn't unreasonable. At least they took a risk and stood for something... Cowering in the corner waiting for polls to show that an election will give you a win is just too politically opportunistic. Give people credit, voters understand this. Politicians don't give voters enough credit. People aren't too happy with this Probation thing either. Its a little arrogant and condescending to keep the nation on edge every few months as much as Harper's pathetic ads against Iggy when Harper could care less about Canada's unity based on his previous comments. Lets call this OnProbation.CA thing what it is: its the party that isn't in power pretending to act like its in power. Its considered arrogance in those semi-Conservative ridings that went to Harper for the first time, where Liberals need to gain support.
My comments may seem a little radical to some of you, especially the many Liberals on this board, but I just got finished being raised in the United States and seeing a demoralized Democratic party lose to nimrods since I was born in 1982 and started paying attention to politics in high school. You have to work with people you don't agree with sometimes to achieve the power to change. Liberals in Canada right now are not at that stage.
Unfortunately, Harper has that. The old Tories are gone. The right is unified, and personally I don't want the NDP and Liberals to merge as a party. A coalition is the right idea to overcome this political gap and get another majority someday.
How many more elections or minority 'wins' will the Liberals have to endure before they learn it might be beneficial to work with someone you may not always agree with for a more common purpose?
That common purpose is health care, keeping Canada out of war at all costs, forging a better economy, and making sure Canada continues to have an accessible, world class education system. Its not really about politics in that sense, and Harper certainly isn't going to invest into Canada. You've already lost one of the world's most respected HIV research centres to Florida because of a Harper policy. Harper's government has already started to de-invest into the CBC and Canada's public broadcasting clout, one of the few ways a democracy can have independent voices. Harper's government has already committed to cancelling and undoing the infrastructure investments the moment the market appears to be out of recession. The list goes on and on and on...
Canada can't afford more Harper. Who cares about a $50 billion deficit? That really isn't the problem, its the above and so much more. The Liberals aren't going to win by crowing at a deficit during a time of economic malaise.
BTW, the Liberals complaining about the deficit is a prime example of a reactionary/defensive position. That's not standing for anything, its just complaining in reaction about something the Conservatives have done. Ask any political strategist and they'll tell you that being in a reactionary or defensive position is the wrong place for a party to be. Putting Harper on Probation and responding to everything he does, instead of charting your own course, is a weak platform. A weak platform that has to be marketed with less money that the Liberals simply don't have right now.
My ideas may get no where, but they are fun to discuss. I certainly hope somewhere there is a Liberal in power listening.
