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Will GTA house prices go down?

W. K. Lis said:
Click on this link to Reuters Canada:
Click to expand...

Housing starts are based on historical sales- possibly years ago- not current sales.

The most useful barameter for the strength of a housing market is the direction of sales and prices in relation to previous years. For the City of Toronto prices are down year-over-year in August for the first time in probably a decade and sales have been declining all year while listings have been soaring.

It is clearly a weakening housing market in the City of Toronto. I don't think that can be disputed.
 
Roy G Biv said:
No.
cdr108 said:
My prediction - 35% off today's prices within 5 years, if not sooner.

History is a good teacher, if you're willing to learn.
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Click to expand...


No to what?
- 35% : you think higher, lower, or prices will increase;
- 5 years : faster, slower;
- history is a good teacher; or
- your willingness to learn?
 
W.S.Lis, that article you posted is actually not good news. Good news would be a sharp decline in housing starts. I mentioned in previous articles how real estate cycles are often dominated as much by supply side push, rather than demand side pull. Rising housing starts at this junction are evidence of extreme supply side push, meaning a tsunami of inventory is joining the swell of re-sale listings. Keep in mind that even if demand for new housing remains strong, a supply side driven inventory tsunami will still ravage the market.
 
TrickyRicky said:
W.S.Lis, that article you posted is actually not good news. Good news would be a sharp decline in housing starts. I mentioned in previous articles how real estate cycles are often dominated as much by supply side push, rather than demand side pull. Rising housing starts at this junction are evidence of extreme supply side push, meaning a tsunami of inventory is joining the swell of re-sale listings. Keep in mind that even if demand for new housing remains strong, a supply side driven inventory tsunami will still ravage the market.
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The Hoff, Gary, Kitt, and I all wholeheartedly agree.

thumbs-up.jpg
 
TrickyRicky said:
cabbagetowner, I think your post generates an interesting question, is it actually better for there to be a soft protracted landing or a hard crash in the long term? I'm actually uncertain either way.

As for house prices, the bust cycle seems to be progressing in clockwork textbook fashion. It is amazing how difficult it is to determine where we stand from the perspective of the now. I think that is why there are still so many willing to deny or rationalize away what will seem to be the obvious in retrospect 5 years from now.
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crashes create whipsaw panic selling and buying. exacerbates the problem. people become irrational and make decisions on emotions. also soft markets don't necessarily have to be protracted. i hope this one is soft and not protracted.
 
cdr108 said:
My prediction - 35% off today's prices within 5 years, if not sooner.

History is a good teacher, if you're willing to learn.
Click to expand...

So a 300K home today will be just under 200K?
I think your prediction is a bit unrealistic
 
Alvar said:
Ford announces 500 jobs to be cut at its Oakville Assenbly Plant.
Click to expand...

Those workers should go into construction work. That might help increase workers in that field and decrease the demand so it won't cost the builders as much money and costs will decrease which will help decrease housing costs a bit.
 
CGM said:
So a 300K home today will be just under 200K?
I think your prediction is a bit unrealistic
Click to expand...

I predict he will be right, for some part of the country.

I believe a $300K home today within 5km of the core of Toronto, will be worth $325 in 5 years.
 
^Nice advertisement my friend but prices have already started to go down. And if you're in the business of selling condos best of luck, you're going to need it.
 
1% is a far cry from 35% ... Though the market has softened and you may see small price drops in the coming year(s), 35% is still a bit excessive
 
Not a BIG drop, but certainly a drop. Those who got into 'bidding' wars in so-called 'up-and-coming' areas will suffer the most. And, the downtown Toronto condo market, in investor-driven buildings, will likely experience some pain. Deals will abound next spring/early summer. IMHO.
 
toronto real estate market

People if you havent sold by now, your going to be out of luck soon..
what goes up must come down..example candian dollar, oil, commodities, stocks, and even Pres Bush. realestate market history 7 year up and 7 year down....

why toronto and other canada market will decrease in value.

more listings, less buyers. consumer confidence ( USA, UK, SPAIN, ETC) all house values are declining. Credit Crunch, no 40 Year mortgage-less first times buyers, leanders are more careful to who to leand to.. what happens in the USA happens here it takes 18 Months. its not going to crash but over 5 years. a 10% 15% decline. at best no gains if any your working for your realestate agents and the government.

if people are think of investing in pre construction and thinking there going to make a dime on there investment. think again..that time has past.

pre construction completion 2011. 1-bdrm, no parking, 650 sqft condo is going for approx $350,000 pre construction price. 10% down+10%.
simple math $350,000 aprrox closing $13000= $363,000.
how much due you think this property is going to be worth 3 years from now..
500,000 NO, 450,000 No, how can avg person afford 500k 1bdrm condo. there montly cost is $3500. you have to be making 10k a month, i dont know how many young proffesonials who make 10k a month..

saying that the prices will increase 1-3% a year. Maximum selling price 400,000... now how much do realestate brokers charge 5%= $20,000 + land transfer + lawyer = grand total aprox $35,000 selling expenses.

Now saying the value does actually increase 10%+ to $400,000 subtract 35000 for selling expenses= The Grand total your left with is a whopping $5,000. before taxes.

Now rental situtaion a 1bdrm with no parking. $360,000 condo. rents for
1400-$1600.

360,000 with 20% down= $288,000 mortgage= $1700 monthly payment + $330 maintence+ $300 property tax + hydro= aprrox $2300-2400
Negative cash flow of $800 -30%...
 
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