Who's going to be the next Liberal leader?

[adma]

And that, in its way, is a fundamental point here. Not only do you need to pummel the NDP back to 1993-type levels, you have to assume that the party, the leadership, and the voters will do so easily, or that there'll be the conditions in place that'll make such a tactic possible. Like, maybe, the ultimate prize of Gerard Kennedy luring Jack & Olivia into the Liberal camp.

Yeah, sure.

 

[Brandon716]

Well its certainly a valid viewpoint to consider, my viewpoint is that the Liberals just need to re-energize with a fresh face and make some serious steps towards standing for the average Canadian and run on it.

Jack Layton has a personal connection with his voters, and he's retained a lot of hope that no NDP leader has had in the past 20 years.

But NDP voters aren't a bunch of sheep, they know politics means power, and without power you have no voice. But NDP voters aren't going to listen to a Liberal party with no voice or vision.

If Liberals find their voice, the Greens and the NDP will have the most to lose. The modern Green party has been built on Liberal misfortune, and if Green voters realize their power means nothing when they vote Green, and Liberals have a leader who takes a stand on key issues and runs a good ship, the Green flower will wilt into oblivion.

 

[Moonmoth]

McKenna has announced he will not run for liberal leadership.

It's gonna be Rae all the way!!!

 

[Brandon716]

Rae? Eh, I guess he's better than Iggy. He'll at least have his former NDP ties to siphon dippers to the grits.

I guess we all see what happens when you watch the Liberal party hemmorage. It creates a supercharged NDP and launches a non-party (the Greens) into quasi-party status into a place as powerful as the NDP was in 2000.

The right was only split into two parties, the left is now split into four parties, of which two of the parties are a direct infusion of former Liberals and one of them practically created from it.

 

[Brandon716]

And that, in its way, is a fundamental point here. Not only do you need to pummel the NDP back to 1993-type levels, you have to assume that the party, the leadership, and the voters will do so easily, or that there'll be the conditions in place that'll make such a tactic possible. Like, maybe, the ultimate prize of Gerard Kennedy luring Jack & Olivia into the Liberal camp.

Yeah, sure.

With a personality like Jack Layton at the top of the NDP I doubt it'll happen anytime soon, so you're right.

But with a vivacious, full of life candidate like Kennedy energizes enough people, its possible to bring the Liberals back to majority status and the NDP will again lose support, but still exist on a certain level.

Kennedy was one of only a few Liberals to actually beat the NDP in an NDP friendly area in 2008, afterall. I wouldn't ignore his potential (to the many on here who have done exactly that, saying the Liberals should become Tory lite).

Now Bob Rae? Does he have excitement? I doubt it. Excitement isn't what comes to mind when I think Rae.

 

[afransen]

Rae attract Dippers? They hate him. He's a turncoat.

 

[Brandon716]

Rae attract Dippers? They hate him. He's a turncoat.

I never said I support him! But if he becomes the Liberal leader, I hope he can give it soul and bring the party back. I don't think Rae has that capacity, but if he's given that job I'd support him and hope he could do so.

 

[Brandon716]

Here's the last several election cycles.


2008
Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadian_election_2008
Party - Total Vote Count - Percent Overall
Cons - 5,207,553 - 37.6%
Liberal - 3,628,337 - 26.2%
NDP - 2,509,148 - 18.1%
Bloc - 1,379,956 - 9.9%
Green - 941,097 - 6.8%


2000
Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadian_federal_election,_2000
Party - Total Vote Count - Percent Overall
Liberal - 5,252,031 - 40.8%
Canadian Alliance - 3,276,929 - 25.4%
Progressive Conservative - 1,566,998 - 12.1%
NDP - 1,093,868 - 8.5%
Bloc - 1,377,727 - 10.7%
Green - 104,402 - .8% (notice the huge difference from below 1% to a surging in the 2004 election)

Another point to consider in the Liberal leadership race.

The new united right, after some cool down period, has a total united vote of 5,207,553 voters in this election.

If you combine the PC vote and the CA vote from 2000, you get 4,843,927. The maximum amount of people they have brought in from outside the party since the unification is approximately 350,000 to 400,000 new voters.

That's not a great deal of energy overall, especially considering the left is split up so badly.

Conservatives may have a near-majority, but their energy level has maxed out. They are at their zenith until the left can get its act together.

Hopefully these actual stats and numbers can put things in perspective.

 

[cacruden]

Any way to delete McKenna (and the 8 cast votes) - so that I can vote for the remaining ?

 

[Observer Walt]

It's a shame in a way that McKenna is out. He has solid experience: Premier of New Brunswick, ambassador to the U.S., and top business leader. He would have put any of the others to shame, and I specifically include Iggy, an academic who has never "managed" anything in his life. I would have liked to see McKenna in this race.

Ignatieff now has to be considered the front-runner. Rae would probably be in second place at this point, although he has the very considerable handicap of his former NDP associations, which I think will be fatal to him.

 

[Brandon716]

I've always been told Ignatieff would theoretically play well for federal Liberals in Quebec.

If so, that's a positive for Iggy, but I'm not supporting him. Anyone here qualified to talk about Ignatieff and Quebec?

 

[Roy G Biv]

A recent Ipos-Reid poll had McKenna and Ignatieff tied for the lead among registered Liberals. Rae was actually in 3rd place behind JT (LOL).

You gotta think all the centrist McKenna support is going to jump over to Ignatieff.

Any thoughts on Dominic LeBlanc?

 

[kEiThZ]

I don't think its about attracting dippers. Forget the popular vote. Look at the ridings:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canadavotes/

The Libs fared poorly because they've cocooned themselves largely in the TMV and some of the Maritimes. They need to steal rural ridings away from the Conservatives. Contesting for the few NDP ridings largely in urban areas and Northern Ontario is no recipe for electoral victory. At best they would get a weak minority out of it.

Look at some of the ridings which they should have taken....like in NB, NS, BC. And of course, there's la belle province where they need to counter the separatists and the growing conservatism outside urban areas. All these are hard tasks, but now they have an opportunity to clean house and rebuild. And work on a more centrist platform which will bring moderates back into the fold.

As far as leaders go....I am starting to rethink my opinion on Iggy after spending a week in California and seeing the impact of Obama. He's no Obama that's for sure. But compared to anyone the Cons might throw up he's certainly better polished. And even his lack of 'Canadian experience' could probably be re-packaged as foreign experience and a connection with the immigrant experience! Other than him, I still say(notwithstanding his recent protestations) McKenna probably has the broadest appeal across Canada. And nobody can make the argument that Frank McKenna is a weak leader. That's for sure. I still feel Rae will be a tough sell in Ontario.

 

[Brandon716]

Keith, you're willing to put up a candidate who supported the Iraq war.

Iggy is no Trudeau, and you're paraphrasing him to be a personality like Trudeau. Policy has to come into the mix somewhere. Voters vote on personality and policy, not either/or. Its taken me a long time to accept the personality quotient, but after viewing the last several elections in several nations, I'm confident personality and policy go hand in hand up in Canada, personality is actually part of Harper's problem.

 

[kEiThZ]

Keith, you're willing to put up a candidate who supported the Iraq war.

Iggy is no Trudeau, and you're paraphrasing him to be a personality like Trudeau. Policy has to come into the mix somewhere. Voters vote on personality and policy, not either/or. Its taken me a long time to accept the personality quotient, but after viewing the last several elections in several nations, I'm confident personality and policy go hand in hand up in Canada, personality is actually part of Harper's problem.

On personality, I'd say Iggy has a good shot at besting Harper. As for supporting the Iraq war, who cares? They are going up against the Conservatives who did support the war too. It might Layton a few votes, but I seriously don't think supporting the Iraq war nearly a decade ago (when the election comes) will be a deciding factor for most voters. And so what if Layton steals a few votes, it's the gushing wound on the centre that the Libs should be concerned about not the paper cut on the left. But for my money, I think the Libs have learned their lesson and the more centrist leaders will prevail.....

If there are too many parties on the left, what's the point of battling it out on the left. Move to the centre a little and take on the CPC. Canadians maybe to the left but they aren't by and large NDP leftists. There has never been an election at the federal level which was a LPC-NDP fight. And by and large Canadians are moving more to the right....Not as much as Harper would like but there are signs of this. During the 80s, who would have campaigned on combatting the deficit? Yet a few years later, the centre-left party took on the cause. In Canada we have a curious habit of relying on centre-left parties to execute centre-right platforms.....the Liberals should acknowledge that unwritten convention and get to work....