Who's going to be the next Liberal leader?

[adma]

I seem to recall that the NDP continued to campaign against a universally-acclaimed Liberal candidate in Saanich-Gulf Islands, despite the fact that their candidate's past exposure of himself to preteens was, uh, exposed. Needless to say, the NDP voters were the difference between a strong, environmentalist Liberal candidate and the Tory who promotes the tar sands and gutted our nuclear regulatory system.

Actually, Julian West did resign his candidacy within days of the revelation, and with that the NDP suspended its campaign. The trouble was, by the time that came to pass, it was (a) too late to nominate somebody else, and (b) too late to withdraw his name from the ballot. Thus his name remained as a "ghost candidacy"; but that's as far as "continuing to campaign" went, in case you think there was some kind of morally bankrupt at-all-cost anti-Liberal conspiracy theory afoot. (And it's not the first time this "resigned candidacy/too-late-to-withdraw" situation's happened; for instance, in 2006, the Tory candidate in BC Southern Interior stepped down, easing the way for an NDP landslide pickup.)

And you know something? It very nearly worked--the token electorate who voted for the remnant NDP ticket "anyway" was whittled down to a historic low of 5.7% (versus nearly 20% for the Tories in BC Southern Interior in '06), and the Liberal vote soared to 39%, within four points of upsetting Gary Lunn. Yes, the NDP voters "were the difference"; but in this case, it was more by inadvertent autopilot than by design--and the Liberal result was all the more remarkable, considering there was a strong *Green* candidate as well who had the country's best result for the party in 2004 and who, on paper, ought to have been a legit wild-card contender for those stray NDP votes as well.

Given the kind of seat it was, Briony Penn did well; in fact, even allowing for her credentials, she overachieved, esp. compared to the dismal results for the Liberals most anywhere else in the BC (particularly where they weren't the incumbent party, as here). But to go any further, you'd essentially have to liquidate the NDP from existence and persuade their campaign team on-side holus bolus--which, once again, is easier said than done (though Team Penn surely couldn't have done as well as it did without a bit of token wayward NDP-team support).

And I must emphasize: if the tables were turned, i.e. if the NDP were running someone of Briony Penn calibre and the Liberal candidate resigned in scandal but too late to be off-ballot, the result would have been no different: Gary Lunn winning by a slender margin. To play devil's advocate, Stephen Harper's Conservatives = strong government/strong leadership, maaaan.

 

[adma]

I'd pick Rae over Ignatieff any day. Ignatieff is in the wrong party, he's much more closely aligned with the Harper's conservatives, he is not a liberal.

Though some sarcastic observers of US politics would say, he's as liberal as Barack Obama is, if not more so...

 

[afransen]

I'd pick Rae over Ignatieff any day. Ignatieff is in the wrong party, he's much more closely aligned with the Harper's conservatives, he is not a liberal.

Are you sure you're not a dipper?

 

[afransen]

Actually, Julian West did resign his candidacy within days of the revelation, and with that the NDP suspended its campaign. The trouble was, by the time that came to pass, it was (a) too late to nominate somebody else, and (b) too late to withdraw his name from the ballot. Thus his name remained as a "ghost candidacy"; but that's as far as "continuing to campaign" went, in case you think there was some kind of morally bankrupt at-all-cost anti-Liberal conspiracy theory afoot. (And it's not the first time this "resigned candidacy/too-late-to-withdraw" situation's happened; for instance, in 2006, the Tory candidate in BC Southern Interior stepped down, easing the way for an NDP landslide pickup.)

And you know something? It very nearly worked--the token electorate who voted for the remnant NDP ticket "anyway" was whittled down to a historic low of 5.7% (versus nearly 20% for the Tories in BC Southern Interior in '06), and the Liberal vote soared to 39%, within four points of upsetting Gary Lunn. Yes, the NDP voters "were the difference"; but in this case, it was more by inadvertent autopilot than by design--and the Liberal result was all the more remarkable, considering there was a strong *Green* candidate as well who had the country's best result for the party in 2004 and who, on paper, ought to have been a legit wild-card contender for those stray NDP votes as well.

Given the kind of seat it was, Briony Penn did well; in fact, even allowing for her credentials, she overachieved, esp. compared to the dismal results for the Liberals most anywhere else in the BC (particularly where they weren't the incumbent party, as here). But to go any further, you'd essentially have to liquidate the NDP from existence and persuade their campaign team on-side holus bolus--which, once again, is easier said than done (though Team Penn surely couldn't have done as well as it did without a bit of token wayward NDP-team support).

And I must emphasize: if the tables were turned, i.e. if the NDP were running someone of Briony Penn calibre and the Liberal candidate resigned in scandal but too late to be off-ballot, the result would have been no different: Gary Lunn winning by a slender margin. To play devil's advocate, Stephen Harper's Conservatives = strong government/strong leadership, maaaan.

There were robo-dialers campaigning for the NDP candidate in the riding a few days before the election. There were suggestions that while the calls appeared to come from the NDP campaign office, the number was actually spoofed, inevitably leading to suspicions against Lunn. Also, there is the thought that the NDP wanted the votes anyway, for the federal subsidy.

 

[unimaginative2]

Yeah, adma, I'm familiar with all those details. But in both Saanich and Durham, the NDP continued its campaign without a candidate, whether to get the per-vote subsidy or to ensure the defeat of a Liberal. In addition to the robo-dialers in Saanich (Even if it was Lunn's office, where did he get the NDP's lists?), "Jack Layton and the Ontario Team" signs went up in Durham during the last week.

 

[Whoaccio]

I'd pick Rae over Ignatieff any day. Ignatieff is in the wrong party, he's much more closely aligned with the Harper's conservatives, he is not a liberal.

What? How so?

 

[Roy G Biv]

What? How so?

Yeah, outside of his initial support for the War in Iraq (which was purely based on a humanitarian motive - RE: Kurds), I don't see how he's any different than a Paul Martin.

He looks like a liberal intellectual to me. Harper is against SSM and didn't believe in global warming until he was forced to. He's also enough of an ideologue to talk down to doctors boasting the benfites of safe injection sites.

I think Iggy and Harper would be on the opposite sides of social issues.

IMO, this would normally be a no-brainer for Rae. Iggy is gaffe-prone, and can't politik like Rae can. Bobby more eloquent, and would have a greater chance at engaging the base and the youth of the party. Unfortunately, Rae's baggage would be front-and-centre during a recession campaign.

It's a tough one...

 

[Admiral Beez]

I think Gerard Kennedy is the future of the Liberal party.

I guess Kennedy doesn't agree with you there, or at least doesn't think he can convince others to go with your way of thinking.

 

[kEiThZ]

What? How so?

For some, any support of any war, makes them right wing.....Iggy has apologized for his support of the Iraq War but that's not good enough for some....

Are you sure you're not a dipper?

He is....just doesn't realize it yet.....

I think Gerard Kennedy is the future of the Liberal party.

I guess Kennedy doesn't agree with you there, or at least doesn't think he can convince others to go with your way of thinking.

Meh, he's still learning the ways of the great white north....he tried to sell Dion as the best guy representing change (from ye olde Liberal ways) before the election! Though, I will say Brandon was right on Kennedy being a contender. But he's just slightly too much to the left to be sellable to the electorate....I am still wondering if he had a hand in the Green Shift!

 

[kEiThZ]

IMO, this would normally be a no-brainer for Rae. Iggy is gaffe-prone, and can't politik like Rae can. Bobby more eloquent, and would have a greater chance at engaging the base and the youth of the party. Unfortunately, Rae's baggage would be front-and-centre during a recession campaign.

It's a tough one...

IMHO, Rae is not electable. If you want to have a '308 riding' strategy, you need a candidate that won't turn off a good portion of the Ontario electorate. That's why I'd think they have a better chance with Iggy..... he's the best of the lot.

 

[Moonmoth]

Are you sure you're not a dipper?

Hmmm if by 'dipper' you mean NDP, yes sometimes I vote NDP. I have voted liberal as well. I vote for my favorite candidate whether they be liberal or NDP, however, I never have nor will I ever give my vote to a conservative at any level of government.

 

[Moonmoth]

He is....just doesn't realize it yet.....

Nor do you realize that I am not a "he".

 

[kEiThZ]

Nor do you realize that I am not a "he".

apologies....

 

[Moonmoth]

IMHO, Rae is not electable. If you want to have a '308 riding' strategy, you need a candidate that won't turn off a good portion of the Ontario electorate. That's why I'd think they have a better chance with Iggy..... he's the best of the lot.

Actually Rae does have support in Ontario. That's like saying Mike Harris is not electable, in fact he was very electable, for two terms, and if he were to re-enter politics and run again in Ontario he would probably have support. Despite his extreme slashing of government programs, decimation of social programs, destruction of infrastructure, unwilling amalgamation of the City of Toronto, general fiscal mayhem that is taking us 20 years to recover from.....

Despite better judgement some (die-hard conservatives) people still would vote for Harris.

Rae, maybe he was too idealistic at one point. But I liked Rae-days as a solution to saving some government money. Time-off to be with your family four times a year for public servants! Many people LIKED that. Rae has a good shot if he runs for liberal leadership. He'd chew up and spit out Harper that's for sure.

 

[cacruden]

Hmmm if by 'dipper' you mean NDP, yes sometimes I vote NDP. I have voted liberal as well. I vote for my favorite candidate whether they be liberal or NDP, however, I never have nor will I ever give my vote to a conservative at any level of government.

Thanks for confirming what afransen was hinting at. If you view Iggy as too far right to fit in the Liberal party, it is because you are looking at him from too far left..... viewpoint is everything.