Flux Capacitor
Active Member
So when do you think Toronto Real Estate will recover again? State your opinion!
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When will the market recover?
- Thread starter Flux Capacitor
- Start date
daveto
Active Member
Can you define" recover"?
cdr108
Senior Member
aren't you jumping the gun ...
we've barely had a blip, although more is anticipated, to be asking when it will 'recover'?
Kenny
Active Member
May 8th, 2012, 07:08 EDT when the Zugorians arrive for the first time. Their peaceful facade will embark a wave of optimism and prosperity.
Seriously, you can't really predict the market with a great deal of accuracy these days. Everything's too topsy turvey.
CN Tower
Banned
urbandreamer
recession proof
2020.
cdr108
Senior Member
You're crazy!
12.12.12 at 12:12 am
when the Mayan calendar comes to an end on Sunday, December 23, 2012
KA1
Senior Member
I refuse to state my opinion.
daveto
Active Member
Unless the gov't reverses the recent CMHC changes for deposits (or offers something significant to compensate) then I dont' think the market well ever again return to the state that it has been for the past 5 years. (or maybe in 20+ years)
I think the drop in sales in July derives from the final expiry of those remaining qualified pre-approved mortgages which predate the April 19 CMHC changes (ie good for 60-90 days)
Not only is the 20% down for investment properties a big change, but the restriction to qualifying rental unit incomes as 50% added to your income rather than 100% applied against the mortgage amount will hit hard many freehold properties.
It's 9am Aug 17 as I type this, and I'm waiting for the Aug midmonth figures which I think will follow in the steps of July's full month figures.
I think the drop in sales in July derives from the final expiry of those remaining qualified pre-approved mortgages which predate the April 19 CMHC changes (ie good for 60-90 days)
Not only is the 20% down for investment properties a big change, but the restriction to qualifying rental unit incomes as 50% added to your income rather than 100% applied against the mortgage amount will hit hard many freehold properties.
It's 9am Aug 17 as I type this, and I'm waiting for the Aug midmonth figures which I think will follow in the steps of July's full month figures.
Catapult
Active Member
I think sales will remain lower but prices won't drop too much. I would expect to see some early stage projects being cancelled. This will eventually reduce supply to a healthy level - i.e. more in equilibrium with lower demand.
interested
Senior Member
One would hope that will happen Catapult. It is just that history tends to teach us that we overshoot usually in both directions.
Because of the time delay from planning to end construction, at least for condos, especially these larger projects, 3-5 years is a normal time frame so all those sales from 2007 to 2010 will still be coming onto market until 2015 potentially. So, while supply will eventually reduce, barring a pickup in demand, even with early stage cancellations, we are likely destined for at least a 3 year if not 5 year stagnation/drop of prices.
I tend to agree with daveto that we will see a further decline, I just feel it will be smaller than his projections. But he admits he is a bear. He however is more of a Grizzly bear and I am closer to a Teddy bear with my projections.
Because of the time delay from planning to end construction, at least for condos, especially these larger projects, 3-5 years is a normal time frame so all those sales from 2007 to 2010 will still be coming onto market until 2015 potentially. So, while supply will eventually reduce, barring a pickup in demand, even with early stage cancellations, we are likely destined for at least a 3 year if not 5 year stagnation/drop of prices.
I tend to agree with daveto that we will see a further decline, I just feel it will be smaller than his projections. But he admits he is a bear. He however is more of a Grizzly bear and I am closer to a Teddy bear with my projections.
Condo George
Active Member
Spring 2011 surge !
aguduser
A part of UT
It's nice to see many people from "Baby, we got a bubble!?" thread again here! Aren't you guys having enough arguments there already?
Why argue?
Que sera, sera. Whatever will be, will be.
Let's just wait and see. As human beings, we have the ability to adapt to whatever happens, not to predict.
The future's not ours to see. Que sera, sera. What will be, will be.
Why argue?
Que sera, sera. Whatever will be, will be.
Let's just wait and see. As human beings, we have the ability to adapt to whatever happens, not to predict.
The future's not ours to see. Que sera, sera. What will be, will be.
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daveto
Active Member
It's nice to see many people from "Baby, we got a bubble!?" thread again here! Aren't you guys having enough arguments there already?
Why argue?
Que sera, sera. Whatever will be, will be.
Let's just wait and see. As human beings, we have the ability to adapt to whatever happens, not to predict.
The future's not ours to see. Que sera, sera. What will be, will be.
You think the future is pre-ordained, and we have no choice about the path of our lives?
simuls
Senior Member
There's no way I'm jumping on this one as I don't think anybody has a clue. With the bubble section, I only started it when the numbers made a good enough case for it and I couldn't reconcile the market with them. When I start to see employment, production, immigration, household debt, federal and provincial deficit and debt reduction levels that seem to coincide with the beginning of another great real estate run then I'll jump in but I have no idea when that'll happen.