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VIA Rail

I mentioned the funding for more study in the story I just put up and pointed people to this thread. It certainly doesn't bode well for a 2019 completion which the CEO was suggesting could be possible.
 
The Windsor-Quebec corridor is similar in that it's very linear. [...]
The Oxford dictionary defines the word "corridor" as "A belt of land linking two other areas or following a road or river", which pretty much prescribes a linear form, but that is not the point. I was only replying to your remark that "[t]he US has 9 times our population, which means it has 9 times as many potential rail corridors as we do".

[...] Well if the Spanish HSR system has been a financial disaster, I take it you're ready to declare our freeway system a disaster too? Because intercity freeways don't make a profit, let alone pay back their capital costs. [...]
Correct, but whereas I would count conventional rail systems (especially remote inter-regional or intra-urban Commuter rail networks) as a public responsibility, I have the expectation for HSR to be not only operationally profitable, but to recover the majority of its capital costs.

[...] There's a good argument to be made that Spain is overbuilding its HSR system. But that doesn't change the fact that the corridor between their two biggest cities (equivalent to Toronto-Montreal) has been a major success. [...]
Zaragoza-Huesca is probably the most drastic example for a completely superfluous HSR line, as the 80 km long segment is only used by a daily round trip Madrid-Zaragoza-Huesca and a second on Fridays and Sundays (thus 2*9=18 trains per week), but I agree that Madrid-Barcelona recovering at least half of its capital costs (if the calculations made by Betancor and Llobet are anything near realistic) makes it a smaller financial disaster than the other three corridors, but what more suitable label would you suggest for having built over 2,000 km of HSR lines (i.e. quindrupling your HSR network) and yielded an increase in ridership which gets outpaced by population growth?

Spain 2002 to 2013 - HSR network growth vs ridership.jpg


[...] If I'm reading that chart correctly, that line made a profit of €3.5 billion in the 5 years leading up to 2008, not including social costs/benefits. Which is odd considering that line wasn't even completed until 2008, so those numbers show performance before the line was even finished. Ridership has risen considerably since. HSR lines don't pay for themselves overnight, it can take a decade or more. The Madrid-Barcelona line is only 8 years old and, based on the pre-completion revenues you posted, it will pay for itself. The other lines are more questionable. [...]
If I read the study correctly (I don't speak Spanish, even though I found it surprisingly similar to French and somewhat understandably), all calculations - financial and social - were based on a horizon of 50 years. I tried to provide the years of opening for the respective corridors, but I must admit that I'm not exactly sure what is exactly included and therefore removed these references in the table, while specifying that all figures refer to a 50-year horizon. For any questions regarding that study, I suggest to read and/or translate it yourself, as my Spanish does not allow me to understand the exact methodology. Nevertheless, a different team of Spanish researchers (Albalate et Bel, 2012, p. 102) has come to very similar conclusions:

Abalate et Bel - Spain - screenshot.jpg


[...] Spain's recent financial crisis was mostly caused by a real estate bubble, not excessive infrastructure spending. Extra government spending was an effect of the bubble, not the cause of the crash. But if, as that article argues, excessive infrastructure spending is threatening the country's recovery, that's as much a problem with freeways and airports as with rail. [...]
You are right that the financial crisis was mostly caused by an unsustainable real estate boom, but the budget crisis was caused by unsustainable public funding in low-priority or outright superfluous infrastructure projects, leading to all these ghost airports, abandoned highways and grotesquely derused rail lines.

[...] Conventional speed rail lines on other continents are, of course, not necessarily faster than Via. But they are two things that Via isn't: reliable and frequent. Those are the things that Via is trying to address.

That being said, European and Asian rail networks have lots of lines that operate in the 200+ km/h range. That's not what's typically thought of as high speed, but it's still faster than just about anything in North America.
I fully agree and this is exactly the merits of Higher-Speed Rail: Maximizing the speed by modernizing signalling systems and tracks while minimizing costs by avoiding any greenfield alignments or forced physical separation of freight and passenger operations. However, the two reasons this doesn't work in North America is the much higher frequency of level crossings requiring costly grade separations and the coincidence of vertical integration (infrastructure ownership plus operations) for freight and disintegration for passenger rail operations. This is the reason why VIA Rail pursues a conventional rail solution at its maximum possible speed (i.e. 110 mph)...
 

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We're going to rack up an additional $100 billion of federal debt by the end of Trudeau's first feed at the trough and we don't even get the promise of HFR, let alone HSR? Pathetic.
 
How dare we fix the issue of clean water on reserves and so on before bullet trains...

Or keep old bridges from collapsing, or stop dumping raw sewage into our rivers, or...

I don't think those are the only things we are spending money on though....one, for example, that was implemented before either of those was the restoration of the ability of civil servants to bank sick days....cost ~$1B a year....so if Via think they can implement HFR for, what, $3.4B you might be able to fix bridges and provide clean water and fund the Via plan. ;)
 
HSR is a wealth generator because it enhances productivity, which boosts tax revenues to pay for more social benefits.
 
Trudeau is creating structurally long term money pits. He is naive and we'll pay for these mistakes when we have to cut spending and clean up the debt later on. I just hope the housing market and larger economy don't tank with his fiscal plan. I could be wrong. I hope I am.
 
Trudeau is creating structurally long term money pits. He is naive and we'll pay for these mistakes when we have to cut spending and clean up the debt later on. I just hope the housing market and larger economy don't tank with his fiscal plan. I could be wrong. I hope I am.

I have never had buyer's remorse with voting as fast as I have with this government. I honestly thought they'd do something for infrastructure. They said, they needed to run deficits to stimulate the economy. I agreed with that reasoning and voted for them.

And now, they are pledging $113 billion in deficits over the next 4-5 years. Of which, only $12 billion will be spent on infrastructure in the next 2-3 years. Ridiculous. That's only marginally more of an effort that the Conservatives, who weren't running massive deficits. And to boot, only $3.4 billion of the $11.9 billion is for transit. With no substantial investment on VIA Rail.

Their entire budget reads like a big "F**k you!" to Stephen Harper and the Conservatives. No strategy. Just fund whatever Harper cut. That's not governing. That's partisan revenge.

If they don't actually get serious about infrastructure, it won't just be my vote for the Conservatives next election, for the first time in my life, I might actually donate money to that party.
 
I have never had buyer's remorse with voting as fast as I have with this government. I honestly thought they'd do something for infrastructure. They said, they needed to run deficits to stimulate the economy. I agreed with that reasoning and voted for them.

And now, they are pledging $113 billion in deficits over the next 4-5 years. Of which, only $12 billion will be spent on infrastructure in the next 2-3 years. Ridiculous. That's only marginally more of an effort that the Conservatives, who weren't running massive deficits. And to boot, only $3.4 billion of the $11.9 billion is for transit. With no substantial investment on VIA Rail.

Their entire budget reads like a big "F**k you!" to Stephen Harper and the Conservatives. No strategy. Just fund whatever Harper cut. That's not governing. That's partisan revenge.

If they don't actually get serious about infrastructure, it won't just be my vote for the Conservatives next election, for the first time in my life, I might actually donate money to that party.

I don't actually have voter's remorse as I resisted the urge to vote for them.....I am a traditional conservative (not a party member but "small c") voter but was tempted by some of their optimistic views and even the prospect of "modest" (which they defined as +/- $10B/year) deficts for 3 years did not worry me that much......and, afterall, it was only 3 years and then they promised to return to balance (even made it job one in the minister's mandate letter). In the end it was a non-financial platform issue that prevented me from voting for them.

This budget just angered me to the point I stopped reading after I got to 3 significant platform promises that were just flat out broken in their very first budget (and I don't even count the size of the deficits as one of those broken promises). They just flat out lied to get elected.
 
Candidate imperfection asides, and differing political choices respected, what is more important at this time is compatible transit policy between government levels -- this one and whoever gets elected next.

I am glad to see better alignment between federal/provincial/municipal on keeping the GO electrification moving forward even with making compromises that actually make better financial sense (like using Crosstown westward extension instead of creating a new Eglinton heavy-rail corridor). Enough said on this, but this is just my perspective. It is all an imperfect compromise and we have to remember the transit indecisiveness quagmire of the last twenty-five years.

I am disappointed that VIA did not get their turn already, but it's still early. They may still get their chance once their proposal is more shovel-ready. Budgets, after all, are often overlapped, so next year could be a big boon for VIA once there's something much more shovel-ready for HFR.

My fears is that the dice gets rolled again on transit infrastructure. Even SmartTrack (even if watered down as a bumper sticker on a GO RER train), and even the Union Pearson Express mess, is nowhwere remotely near Eglinton subway fill-in, Transit City disappearing act, Scarborough vaporway, Downtown Relief vaporway, the butchering of GO in the early 1990s.

(Note that Union Pearson Express, while lavish, is still recoverable as a roll-into-RER initiative that is thankfully starting with the fare unification with GO, and given a reforming of staffing, its farebox recovery ratio will still easily surpass the Sheppard stubway. Finally, things are going in the correct direction, a mid-course correction that never happened to Sheppard stubway).

So, to those angry voters (Angry at Harper, angry at Trudeau, whatever color YOU are), patience -- it looks like better things are happening NOW. Let things happen, please. Smart Track is actually a perfectly fine "tweak of GO RER" even if it was sold as a "new surface subway" originally. Technologically, it's been always the same "infrequent diesel commuter train being upgraded to a more frequent electric train that is more transit-friendly, more than what was planned by the province originally", regardless of branding.

So many things are in the transit pipeline already, Union revitalization, GO RER, electrification, reforming of UPX, a high-performance electrified route roughly on Bramalea-Unionville (whether you wish to call it RER/SmartTrack), Eglinton Crosstown, significant increases in VIA service including the Kitchener redo, York subway extension, more urgent and concrete DRL study, ongoing continuous GO service expansions, LRTs under construction in many locations and more to come. There has been a large amount of additional transit projects being pushed into the pipeline. Fewer done-deal projects are being permanently cancelled late in process, and even the Transit City leftovers are being resurrected piecemeal.

The transit project modifications (e.g. Brampton LRT portion) are more minor compared to what happened to, for example, Sheppard Stubway or the aborted Eglinton Subway. Those are even bigger massive wastes as the modifications occured during construction.

So, patience! Things are so much better than the preceding 25 years -- and even for VIA.

Yes, I am not happy either about some elements (we differ probably), but, look at the whole picture!
 
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Candidate imperfection asides, and differing political choices respected, what is more important at this time is compatible transit policy between government levels -- this one and whoever gets elected next.

I am glad to see better alignment between federal/provincial/municipal on keeping the GO electrification moving forward even with making compromises that actually make better financial sense (like using Crosstown westward extension instead of creating a new Eglinton heavy-rail corridor). Enough said on this, but this is just my perspective. It is all an imperfect compromise and we have to remember the transit indecisiveness quagmire of the last twenty-five years.

Not sure you got better alignment though....so the feds are kicking in some money over 3 years that is to apportioned to municipalities based on a ridership formula.

They just leaped past the provincial level and it's transportation implementation body (Metrolinx).......If Ontario was to say "wow, with all that federal money allocated to Ontario we can do "X" project in Toronto"...the feds would not allow it because some of that money has to be spent in York, Brampton, Mississauga, etc.

The province, who's job it is, has lost the co-coordinating/prioritizing pen as it relates using/matching these federal funds.
 

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