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VIA Rail

DSC said:
We are taking the ViA Canadian to Edmonton next week and are interested in knowing if the recent schedule changes have made it more reliable. Any ideas of a site that reports 'historic' arrival times?

Found it! https://asm.transitdocs.com/

and https://asm.transitdocs.com/map
Click to expand...
Out of private interest, I've extracted the publicly available data from VIA's reservation system and compiled the following on-time performance parameters for the three different timetables we've seen since the start of 2018:
196521

Compiled from: VIA Rail website (the date stamp and train number can be changed in the URL)
Note: "2018" refers to the departures from 2018/01/02 to 2018/07/24, "2018/2019" to the departures from 2018/07/26 to 2018/04/27 and "Summer 2019" to all departures since 2019/04/29 (until 2019/07/22).

Unfortuantely, I've included only Winnipeg among the many intermediary stations, but the average delay of currently 4 hours (at arrival) for Winnipeg should be a good indication of what you should be prepared for when arriving in Edmonton.


lrt's friend said:
Don't count reliable arrival times. I took the Canadian from Vancouver to Winnipeg at the start of May. We had to stop repeatedly for freight trains along the route. Our arrival time in Winnipeg was around 10 pm. The train actually arrived at 5 am. Be prepared!! Nevertheless, the Canadian is an experience. I loved the journey, meeting people, the views, and the food is excellent.
Click to expand...
That would have been the departure of April 29, 2019, which happened to be the first departure on the new ("Summer 2019") schedule. I happened to be on the departure before that (April 26, 2019, i.e. the last departure on the old "2018/2019" schedule) and we arrived in Winnipeg at midnight (which was still 5 hours late, as the scheduled arrival time was 3 hours earlier than yours). In any case, I'm glad you enjoyed the journey, views, food and conversations, just like I did, and thank you very much for having taken the Canadian!
 
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@Urban Sky - interesting that the 2019 changes have virtually eliminated westbound delays ex Toronto. I guess the eastbound delays were cascading equipment issues such that a trainset couldn't be spotted back from TMC maintenance/servicing in time?
 
HFR would be better off without the Montréal-Québec City section. E&Y study.

www.lapresse.ca

Train à grande fréquence: délaisser la ligne Montréal-Québec profiterait à VIA Rail

L’abandon du tronçon Montréal-Québec serait bénéfique pour le projet de VIA Rail d’un train à grande fréquence dans le corridor Québec-Toronto, indique un document interne du gouvernement fédéral.
www.lapresse.ca www.lapresse.ca

beta.ctvnews.ca

Toronto-Montreal high-frequency rail line more effective without Quebec City: memo

Via Rail's business case for a multibillion-dollar high-frequency-rail project between Toronto and Quebec City would receive a boost if it ditched the stretch from Montreal to Quebec City, internal federal documents say.
beta.ctvnews.ca beta.ctvnews.ca
 
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^I wonder what the load projection would be, and especially how many people are projected to ride through Montreal.... ie how much the Quebec business add to the profit margin for the T-O-M segment. While M-Q may not generate a profit as a standalone, It may be desirable just to capture that incremental business.

In any event, Quebec City is to VIA Rail as Scarborough Town Center is to TTC's Line 2. Politically, not going there will have its price.

- Paul
 
The Tunnel situation probably made the business case worse for Quebec City. Aside from the ridership.

I do wonder if HFR is suffering from politically driven scope creep. Hence the need to connect to Quebec City. I really hope, they can find a major institutional investor who will drive them to make decisions that maximize ROI. Cities like Quebec City and London should be in a future phase.
 
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crs1026 said:
^I wonder what the load projection would be, and especially how many people are projected to ride through Montreal.... ie how much the Quebec business add to the profit margin for the T-O-M segment. While M-Q may not generate a profit as a standalone, It may be desirable just to capture that incremental business.

In any event, Quebec City is to VIA Rail as Scarborough Town Center is to TTC's Line 2. Politically, not going there will have its price.

- Paul
Click to expand...

Traffic from Toronto to Quebec City is going to be sparse. That would still be a 7 hr trip. There's some Ottawa-Quebec City. But I doubt it's enough to really move the needle.

My big fear is that the added scope sees them cheap out on TOM. Especially if that estimate in the article is correct. $1.14 billion for Montreal-Quebec City, out of $4.4 billion is pretty ridiculous given ridership on that route. Think of what VIA could do if $4 billion was spent just on TOM. Heck, I would think think they probably need that much for TOM anyway.
 
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^ Quebec - Montreal is roughly the same distance as Edmonton- Calgary, and that HxR project was costed at $1.5B some years ago. So yeah, I tend to think the price for this could be more than $1.1B.
The whole HFR costing invites healthy skepticism. VIA maintains it has done lots of due diligence on this, and I believe them....sorta, maybe. I’m quite sure private investors will look at this pretty carefully, especially after California etc.

- Paul
 
This article just appeared in the Globe
Internal documents challenge Via Rail’s business case for extending new rail line to Quebec City

It breaks down the VIA envelope as follows -

The documents say Via’s latest estimates peg the cost at $4.4-billion: $2.1-billion for the Toronto-to-Ottawa route, $91.5-million for the Ottawa-to-Montreal route, $1.14-billion for the Montreal-to-Quebec City route and $1.1-billion for additional train sets.
Click to expand...

Only $91M for Ottawa-Montreal is a pittance, and isn't enough to improve time keeping much over today. That's really discouraging.

- Paul
 
crs1026 said:
^ Quebec - Montreal is roughly the same distance as Edmonton- Calgary, and that HxR project was costed at $1.5B some years ago. So yeah, I tend to think the price for this could be more than $1.1B.
The whole HFR costing invites healthy skepticism. VIA maintains it has done lots of due diligence on this, and I believe them....sorta, maybe. I’m quite sure private investors will look at this pretty carefully, especially after California etc.

- Paul
Click to expand...

I'm really curious about the $70 million study. It will have detailed numbers on projected ridership and costs. I don't think there's ever been a study this detailed. And the CIB's credibility is on the line.

So what do they do if investors come in and balk at funding Ottawa-Montreal.

crs1026 said:
Only $91M for Ottawa-Montreal is a pittance, and isn't enough to improve time keeping much over today. That's really discouraging.

- Paul
Click to expand...

Agreed. VIA is really dropping the ball here. This is the one segment that would benefit several markets and create a commuter market. Underspending here is foolish.

They really need institutional investors to stop them from shooting themselves in the foot.
 
kEiThZ said:
That's unfair. The $70 million study covers the $4.4 billion investment.

But it does beg the question why this $91 million project wasn't funded before.
Click to expand...

I expect it's items caused by the added frequency of trips; perhaps a rail-rail grade separation with the CP track near De Beaujeu and a bit of double-tracking.
 
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kEiThZ said:
That's unfair. The $70 million study covers the $4.4 billion investment.

But it does beg the question why this $91 million project wasn't funded before.
Click to expand...

Yeah, it was a bit of a cheap shot, but really..... Ottawa can’t find that much money?

Presumably there is some book value to the existing assets which will constitute VIA’s equity, which is (simplistically) VIA’s collateral to the investors’ loan. Adding this amount to VIA’s equity would marginally improve the credit score, and if the improvements lead to marketability it could lead to a lower risk score. Seems like a no brainer just as a demonstration.

As you have noted, there is probably a standalone Ottawa-Montreal market that could be extracted, irrespective of the other segmentsof the route.

- Paul
 
crs1026 said:
Yeah, it was a bit of a cheap shot, but really..... Ottawa can’t find that much money?

Presumably there is some book value to the existing assets which will constitute VIA’s equity, which is (simplistically) VIA’s collateral to the investors’ loan. Adding this amount to VIA’s equity would marginally improve the credit score, and if the improvements lead to marketability it could lead to a lower risk score. Seems like a no brainer just as a demonstration.

As you have noted, there is probably a standalone Ottawa-Montreal market that could be extracted, irrespective of the other segmentsof the route.

- Paul
Click to expand...

I will agree that it's not a good look on VIA/feds, that they didn't simply fund this before. Heck, they should fund it right now.
 
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