VIA Rail

[micheal_can]

They'll commit to Quebec City - Montreal first, keeping Quebec happy and making the Conservatives look like they hate Quebec when they threaten to kill the funding.

The CPC are polling low in Quebec last I checked. It is expected the next election, the Bloc will win most of the Quebec seats. So, ignoring Quebec would fall into his Western Canada's base.

Normally I'd agree but Ford really surprised me with free-spending even on projects guaranteed to be a substantial loss [including indirect benefits], and the public seems happy with it.

PP may follow that lead to some extent: something equal to 10 years current VIA subsidies [~$7B] might be something they consider reasonable.

They are a different type of conservative. Ford is more of a Red Tory than PP will ever be or has ever been. Initially, he scared me when he got in. Enough of his policies are not scary that although I won't vote for him, I do not think he will fundamentally change our country for the bad. I don't have the same hope with PP. We shall see what happens.

 

[nfitz]

Normally I'd agree but Ford really surprised me with free-spending even on projects guaranteed to be a substantial loss [including indirect benefits], and the public seems happy with it.

I'm not sure I'd call the Ford governments fiscally conservative. In one of the recent elections, there was a breakdown of the platforms of the three major parties, concluding that the NDP were the most fiscally conservative, while the PCs were the least.

 

[Coolibop]

And, maybe even see some maps.

From the French article... Our starting point (exploratory):

 

[rbt]

I'm not sure I'd call the Ford governments fiscally conservative. In one of the recent elections, there was a breakdown of the platforms of the three major parties, concluding that the NDP were the most fiscally conservative, while the PCs were the least.

His 2018 campaign used various [inaccurate IMO] Toronto finance numbers as evidence of him being a fiscal conservative. In reality he's a spend-thrift in at least some areas.

That's kinda my point with PP and this decades conservative populism trend: what they actually do may not match the campaign.

 

[Allandale25]

CBC News version.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/high-speed-rail-canada-1.7365835

 

[rdaner]

Interesting! I wonder what this means for all of the stations? Would they have to build a new section at Union? And how would development rights around these nifty stations work? Defray costs like in Japan?

 

[ericmacm]

They are a different type of conservative. Ford is more of a Red Tory than PP will ever be or has ever been. Initially, he scared me when he got in. Enough of his policies are not scary that although I won't vote for him, I do not think he will fundamentally change our country for the bad. I don't have the same hope with PP. We shall see what happens.

It is really hard to predict what Pierre’s stance on this would be - I don’t trust him as a politician, but I think there’s a good chance this project stays safe. Even huge prairie populists like Danielle Smith want to build rail these days.

The business community and the private sector want these projects to happen. Don’t forget that there is also currently a Calgary-Edmonton HSR proposal (Prairie Link) working its way through planning in Alberta at the moment initiated as an unsolicited proposal by the private sector. I would highly doubt that a new government would kill a project so monumental and viewed so positively by both the general public and the private sector unless they wanted a guaranteed loss 4 years down the road.

 

[micheal_can]

It is really hard to predict what Pierre’s stance on this would be - I don’t trust him as a politician, but I think there’s a good chance this project stays safe. Even huge prairie populists like Danielle Smith want to build rail these days.

The business community and the private sector want these projects to happen. Don’t forget that there is also currently a Calgary-Edmonton HSR proposal (Prairie Link) working its way through planning in Alberta at the moment initiated as an unsolicited proposal by the private sector. I would highly doubt that a new government would kill a project so monumental and viewed so positively by both the general public and the private sector unless they wanted a guaranteed loss 4 years down the road.

I look to when he was a cabinet minister and what he did then to help guide what I think he may do once he wins. Danielle Smith is the wildcard. It could be that she gets her HSR at the expense of cutting it in the Corridor. That would suit his AB base well. The question is not just whether he will cancel it, but whether he continues the process in a timely manner. For instance, if there is an existing timeline as Urbansky points out, once PP is in, does he even keep that one, or once it hits the next stage where it can be potentially be stopped, does he stop it or not. So, he could keep the existing contract going, but once that is done, he does not move on with it. And then all bets are off once the next election happens. Maybe he uses it as a carrot to keep himself in power,or maybe the next leader of another party uses it as the carrot.I fear PM PP, but I do not know what level of fear I should have.

 

[roger1818]

It is really hard to predict what Pierre’s stance on this would be - I don’t trust him as a politician, but I think there’s a good chance this project stays safe. Even huge prairie populists like Danielle Smith want to build rail these days.

The business community and the private sector want these projects to happen. Don’t forget that there is also currently a Calgary-Edmonton HSR proposal (Prairie Link) working its way through planning in Alberta at the moment initiated as an unsolicited proposal by the private sector. I would highly doubt that a new government would kill a project so monumental and viewed so positively by both the general public and the private sector unless they wanted a guaranteed loss 4 years down the road.

I totally agree. I wouldn't trust Skippy as far as I could throw him, but he would be foolish to outright cancel this project, since it has broad public and business support. Traffic has become a hot button issue, and this is seen as a way to avoid/reduce traffic (in reality it will likely be more of the first than second). Having said that, anything could happen and he could decide that we are a farming country and the business community should be ignored.

 

[Urban Sky]

I totally agree. I wouldn't trust Skippy as far as I could throw him, but he would be foolish to outright cancel this project, since it has broad public and business support. Traffic has become a hot button issue, and this is seen as a way to avoid/reduce traffic (in reality it will likely be more of the first than second). Having said that, anything could happen and he could decide that we are a farming country and the business community should be ignored.

I believe the main advantage of HFR-TGF and the federal government having scope-creeped the project so aggressively towards French/Italian-style HSR is that it gives PP plenty of scope to simultaneously demonstrate his ability to “protect taxpayers”, “being open to business” and “getting things done” while shaming the Liberals for having failed on all three counts (not just on this file).

The final project might have little resemblance with what those who celebrated about yesterday’s “news” envision, but the project has advanced far too far to get just scrapped completely…

 

[Mr.Tang]

Not sure - if you kill the billions on this project (and others) - can you give a tax break to "hard working Canadians"? That money has to come from somewhere.

 

[crs1026]

To my mind, the worst case is that PP decides to undo the bidder selection just to go his own separate way. That might have legal repercussions and lead to a whole round of delay and politicking that we just don't need. (Helicopters and fighter jet procurements come to mind as precedent).

However, a value-engineering exercise with the Liberal-chosen vendor is within the scope and timing of the co-development phase, and might in fact correct any Liberal-fuelled excesses in the project (I suspect there will be some of these). Lots of room for PP to say that he has redirected the project and saved it from an infamous failed execution. I can live with that, even if it's a repeat of Ford tearing the cover off GO-RER and then relabelling it "GO Expansion".

- Paul

 

[Sandpit]

It unfortunately matters preciously little what the outgoing government wants to plan & design, but what the next government is willing to fund…

…or a few governments down the line. Look at HS2 and how it survived Cameron, May, and Johnson, only to be cut by Sunak

 

[Urban Sky]

…or a few governments down the line. Look at HS2 and how it survived Cameron, May, and Johnson, only to be cut by Sunak

Thankfully we don’t have a new government every year and let Italy look like a beacon of stability in contrast!

In all seriousness, though, only a decision about Phase 1 needs to be made before the 2029 election and I trust that PP wants to shove it in Trudeau’s face that he can actually get things started…

 

[micheal_can]

Not sure - if you kill the billions on this project (and others) - can you give a tax break to "hard working Canadians"? That money has to come from somewhere.

When he was a cabinet minister with Harper, they would cut things to balance the budget, So,I can see him cut this in his last year of that term so that he can she he balanced the budget.

Thankfully we don’t have a new government every year and let Italy look like a beacon of stability in contrast!

In all seriousness, though, only a decision about Phase 1 needs to be made before the 2029 election and I trust that PP wants to shove it in Trudeau’s face that he can actually get things started…

By then, Trudeau is gone, so why would he need to show people any of that. It really was only the first year or so of the first term of JT's that he was showing up Harper. By the end, life had happened for all of us.