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VIA Rail

As we have discussed ad nauseum, the case for the Canadian barely intersects with transportation investment. It's largely a tourism vehicle. The Ocean is a bit more of a mixture, people with time available do seem to use it just to get to/from the Maritimes, as an alternative to flying.

The point is, it's a sustainable tourism enterprise, and if it does carry some "shorts", so much the better.

Looking for the new fleet to serve a pure transportation function is not the optimal design. This forum ought to focus on what the replacement fleet should look like given the need to offer a sustainable tourism role.

The fleet must be sized for better than what is run today. Three times a week Toronto-Vancouver is necessary and the ridership is likely there. The Ocean could likely support six day a week service. Build in enough equipment to resume the Gaspe service.

Looking at recent sleeper designs around the world, there are actually some really nice designs out there...and ideas that can be adopted into a North American brand.

Personally, the dome design is a showstopper for me - it's an absolutely marvellous amenity (although apparently some riders don't even use it!). I suspect TC would not allow a new dome order, certainly not without a lot of new engineering, and any bilevel solution would be incompatible. Enjoy it while we have it.

- Paul
Having taken The Canadian twice from Toronto to Vancouver (2013 and 2019, the latter with two teens), I agree that it's a great way to see the country. There were lots of visitors to Canada on both trips.

The dome car is great!
 
Personally, the dome design is a showstopper for me - it's an absolutely marvellous amenity (although apparently some riders don't even use it!). I suspect TC would not allow a new dome order, certainly not without a lot of new engineering, and any bilevel solution would be incompatible. Enjoy it while we have it.

- Paul
If TC signed off on Rocky’s recently built Stadler dome, what makes you think they wouldn’t approve a dome to equivalent construction for VIA? I can’t imagine that even if the Winnipeg shed (or Toronto’s electrification) was incompatible with an exact replica of Stadler’s Rocky Goldleaf that they couldn’t build something like the Panorama car.
 
If TC signed off on Rocky’s recently built Stadler dome, what makes you think they wouldn’t approve a dome to equivalent construction for VIA? I can’t imagine that even if the Winnipeg shed (or Toronto’s electrification) was incompatible with an exact replica of Stadler’s Rocky Goldleaf that they couldn’t build something like the Panorama car.

Admittedly I am speaking from pure uninformed skepticism, and I have no information about what operating restrictions might have been imposed on the Stadler cars.... or what exemptions might have been granted. I just can't see TC keeping their hands off the subject.

And I suspect (again, with no knowledge or expertise) that the "turret" style dome may have added structural or safety concerns that a smooth-sided dome might not have. Just a personal opinion (and a foamy one at that) that the "turret" dome is a better view even than the long Stadler cars with their ample windows.

I also love the open air elements of the Stadler cars on the Rocky and in Alaska, but I suspect VIA might not want that amenity given operation year-round.

- Paul
 
The fleet must be sized for better than what is run today. Three times a week Toronto-Vancouver is necessary and the ridership is likely there. The Ocean could likely support six day a week service. Build in enough equipment to resume the Gaspe service.
This is key - allow via to expand services that warrant it. During the peak travel times, I don't think they have the rolling stock to match the demand. If sleepers are sold out, they should be able to add another sleeper. If the train is sold out, they should be able to add another train .I know it is not that simple, but if good planning were done, it could be as simple as getting the permission from the railroad owners and then adding it the next season.
 
I don't like to conflate Capital Expenditure with Operating Deficits, even if both are (in VIA's case, at least) ultimately a subsidy paid by the taxpayer. The way I see it, the direct subsidy to operate VIA's remote services is pocket change ($20 million in 2018, so some $0.50 per Canadian) and should be counted as a (very insufficient) compensation for the hardships we've brought onto our First Nations communities, for many of which these services are a lifeline. We can debate as much as we want whether all these services are actually "remote", but the Churchill service undoubtebly is and can't be replaced by roads (at any reasonable costs, I believe there was a study which put that cost in the billions), so we'll need a new non-corridor fleet anyways and one which includes Sleepers.

As for the transcontinental services, I would frame them as a marketing tool to attract tourists to Canada. If we look at the Canadian, its direct subsidy was $6.5 million in 2018 and a surplus (!) of $0.8 million in 2017. We will anyways need to fund something which can shuttle equipment around between Jasper, Winnipeg, some random city in Northern Ontario (which shall remain unnamed because few good things have ever come out of it) and VIA's Maintenance Centers in the Corridor and the Canadian is certainly the cheapest way to achieve this and whatever subsidy it requires, it easily repays that by the incremental tax revenues it generates by attracting overseas tourists which would have otherwise booked the "Indian Pacific" in Australia or an actual cruise in the Carribean. The Ocean is slightly less successful, but with a direct deficit of $12 million per year, who cares?

Of course the long-distance fleet replacement won't be cheap, but if we had put aside a single Dollar for each Canadian and year of operation we squeezed out of the stainless steel fleet CP originally acquired in 1955, we probably would have the money to pay for a like-for-like replacement...

This of course doesn't mean that we shouldn't invest into a nationwide bus network, but a single Dollar per Canadian and year would pay for a franchise system which supports a network which is at least as dense as what Greyhound used to operate pre-2018. We can easily afford to do both: maintain our existing non-corridor VIA network and build a very decent nationwide bus network which truly connects Canadians...
The Transcontinental is an iconic tourism symbol of Canada. It is a simple statement of fact. Ride it (or encourage clients to ride it) and the reviews are terrific. People come for the trip, people come for the train, for the iconic rail cars, for the experience, and they come from around the world (an no, I do not work for VIA). If and when you have to replace the cars, I would with new 'heavyweights' with all the same signature clues in the units -stainless, domes , park cars, dining experience etc etc I would change the route in Ontario, This trip is about scenery and so at Sudbury the route would diverge to Sault Ste Marie, up to Franz, and then west via CP to Thunder Bay. And i would consider a 'second service' that would run through the Rockies on the days the Transcontinental was not (or maybe if the demand was there, double up) from Edmonton to Vancouver and vice versa. There are going to be issues with timing and speed, both of which could be improved as they stand today, and you cannot gloss over those issues, or the changes that could, should or might be made to improve the status of speed and service. But without a doubt, this train is a worthy investment long term.

The Ocean is similar, but not quite, from my limited experience. It appears to carry more clients who are not tourists, giving that train a differing role, compared to the Transcontinental. But there appear to be tourism related facets of this trip that could be enhanced and played up as well.

You can add in the Polar Bear Express, which is purely tourism orientated. (And I believe they have the non PB Express service still as well, which was always the more interesting trip)

Whether you add some sort of regional passenger service on days the Transcontinental/Ocean are not running, over select portions of the existing routes is a question, and maybe for another thread (although one hesitates currently). Do these routes serve communities without viable services, viable road networks, the chance of a better regional bus network (ONR in Ontario for instance), any sort of ridership comparable (at the very least) to say the Sudbury - White River service, which was about 6,000 rides a few years ago ? I am not so sure. Having lived and worked in Northern Ontario, i would lean to a viable, reliable, interconnected bus network first. And lets see how the revised, improved(?), speedier(?) Northlander fairs before we declare Northern Ontario, the Prairies, and Eastern Canada ready for a return of a VIA Regional Rail Service anywhere it does not exist right now. (Whatever the solution, the need for better regional transport may be growing or possibly will be growing in many of these areas. Example - the medical services situation in Sault Ste Marie, where they are chronically, critically short of services and doctors. This is forcing patients to Sudbury for routine appointments. Currently ONR runs one bus a day in each direction, which is not much of a service)

As it stands, VIA has many challenges improving corridor service in Ontario/Quebec, where it should be focused 1A. Then 'Tourism ' Services 1B, and adding new routes somewhere after that.

Off to Montreal again, hopefully riding one of the new rail sets.
 
I support rail tourism, including the above mentioned routes.

That said, I love hard numbers for analysis.

Using 2019 as a reference year (pre-pandemic)

Canada had just over 22M tourists. (overnight visitors)

1706633297338.png


Of those, 82,135 rode 'The Canadian'

1706633388292.png


So annual ridership on the 'The Canadian' is equal to just over 0.3% of all overnight visitors to the country.
 
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I support rail tourism, including the above mentioned routes.

That said, I love hard numbers for analysis.

Using 2019 as a reference year (pre-pandemic)

Canada had just over 22M tourists. (overnight visitors)

View attachment 536399

Of those, 82,135 rode 'The Canadian'

View attachment 536400

So just over annual ridership on the 'The Canadian' is equal to just over 0.3% of all overnight visitors to the country.
Can someone find the numbers for the number of empty seats during the peak season for the LDS routes? Butts in the seats is a key thing, and if they are sold out, that could mean there is space for more frequency or longer cars. If a Corridor route was always sold out, Via would look at ways of adding more space somehow.
 
Can someone find the numbers for the number of empty seats during the peak season for the LDS routes? Butts in the seats is a key thing, and if they are sold out, that could mean there is space for more frequency or longer cars. If a Corridor route was always sold out, Via would look at ways of adding more space somehow.

I'm not going to look this up for you; aside from the fact you could do it for yourself; because your fundamental assertion is not well conceived.

IF a long distance route is losing money per passenger, or even breaking even, adding a modest amount of additional frequency is unlikely to change anything; particularly for a service catering to tourists who aren't likely moved in their interest based on whether there is a 2x weekly departure or a daily one.

IF a train were running at capacity and IF additional rolling stock could be added-on w/o requiring additional locomotives or associated personnel, that might reduce losses, or add a smidge to the bottom line.........but its not likely to excite anyone or move the needle for VIA nationally.

The moment you add additional frequency, you're adding more head-end power and more staff, and in many cases, opening small/remote stations additional days per week.

That's not to say more frequency might not be desirable, nor that such services can't break even or even turn a profit; but the relationship between that capacity utilization rate is not a straight line.
 
I'm not going to look this up for you; aside from the fact you could do it for yourself; because your fundamental assertion is not well conceived.

IF a long distance route is losing money per passenger, or even breaking even, adding a modest amount of additional frequency is unlikely to change anything; particularly for a service catering to tourists who aren't likely moved in their interest based on whether there is a 2x weekly departure or a daily one.

Anecdotally, we know the Canadian was running at an acceptable level of loss and ridership when running three times a week, but the equipment constraints caused by lengthening the schedule forced that to be cut back to two times east of the Rockies. I would say that degree of market demand is reasonable to assume, and it could be done within existing overheads so incremental costs are not prohibitive. I would not however make the argument that would extrapolate that to daily.
The stats that I would go looking for when I had the technology is the Vancouver Cruise ship terminal. I suspect it has some similar level of direct or indirect subsidy. Maybe its passenger count is higher, and it is better placed to derive income from real estate activities - but the point is, no one would suggest closing it (and sending the Alaska cruise tourists to board in Seattle) simply because it requires subsidy.
How worthwhile is the Canadian ? That takes a lot of data we don’t have. A billion dollar equipment order would buy a new hospital, or a lot of water treatment facikities on First Nations reserves. So the end decision is one of competing options. I don’t have a firm view either way, but it’s reasonable that someone tally up the pro’s and con’s on a basis that is broader than direct profit-loss.

- Paul
 
I'm not going to look this up for you; aside from the fact you could do it for yourself; because your fundamental assertion is not well conceived.

IF a long distance route is losing money per passenger, or even breaking even, adding a modest amount of additional frequency is unlikely to change anything; particularly for a service catering to tourists who aren't likely moved in their interest based on whether there is a 2x weekly departure or a daily one.

IF a train were running at capacity and IF additional rolling stock could be added-on w/o requiring additional locomotives or associated personnel, that might reduce losses, or add a smidge to the bottom line.........but its not likely to excite anyone or move the needle for VIA nationally.

The moment you add additional frequency, you're adding more head-end power and more staff, and in many cases, opening small/remote stations additional days per week.

That's not to say more frequency might not be desirable, nor that such services can't break even or even turn a profit; but the relationship between that capacity utilization rate is not a straight line.

I know there is a lot of information I do not know. For instance, are costs linear. For example, does the costs of running one full train mean that adding a second full train mean the costs just double? Does adding 1 extra car mean no additional costs are added? How many cars can you add before you need more crew or another engine? I am certain those answers are within corporate Via,and if it can be accessed,I do not know the wording needed to access it.

How worthwhile is the Canadian ? That takes a lot of data we don’t have. A billion dollar equipment order would buy a new hospital, or a lot of water treatment facilities on First Nations reserves. So the end decision is one of competing options. I don’t have a firm view either way, but it’s reasonable that someone tally up the pro’s and con’s on a basis that is broader than direct profit-loss.

- Paul
This is where the realities of any "dreams" of expansion fall. We need to spend it on all of that and more. The problem is we have had tax cuts to the point where our governments are broke and there is no hope for anything meaningful for anything. I hate hearing politicians saying they will cut taxes and in the next sentence say they are increasing spending. So, the thing that will cause the least political damage will get cut. Via's LDS routes are top of that list.
 
I support rail tourism, including the above mentioned routes.

That said, I love hard numbers for analysis.

Using 2019 as a reference year (pre-pandemic)

Canada had just over 22M tourists. (overnight visitors)

View attachment 536399

Of those, 82,135 rode 'The Canadian'

View attachment 536400

So annual ridership on the 'The Canadian' is equal to just over 0.3% of all overnight visitors to the country.
Agreed, but if international tourists injected $21.2 billion into our Economy pre-covid and the Canadian accounted for the same 0.3%, then this would still represent $63.6 million, thus far more than what the Canadian costs us taxpayers, even if we include its annualized capital costs:
IMG_4502.jpeg


Granted, not all passengers on the Canadian are Sleeper passengers (let alone: international tourists), but it helps attract a high-end tourism segment where passenger spend considerable time and money while in the country and learn to appreciate that Canada is much, much more than just Niagara Falls and the CN tower. Each of these folks contributes much more to the economy than John Doe who drives up from Upstate NY to Toronto to see the Blue Jays and stays in a cheap motel for a night, having fueled up his Pickup before he entered Canada.

The Canadian promotes the kind of tourism Canada needs most at a moderate expense - and that makes it a worthwhile expense for any federal government…
 
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...Granted, not all passengers on the Canadian are Sleeper passengers (let alone: international tourists), but it helps attract a high-end tourism segment where passenger spend considerable time and money while in the country and learn to appreciate that Canada is much, much more than just Niagara Falls and the CN tower. Each of these folks contributes much more to the economy than John Doe who drives up from Upstate NY to Toronto to see the Blue Jays and stays in a cheap motel for a night, having fueled up his Pickup before he entered Canada.

The Canadian promotes the kind of tourism Canada needs most at a moderate expense - and that makes it a worthwhile expense for any federal government…

I'm not disagreeing with the above in the least, nor was I denigrating The Canadian at all.

Rather I was simply looking to put some harder numbers into the discussion.

0.3% is not an immaterial number; though not a huge one.

There is a fair discussion to be had on one might draw in both more tourists and more high-value tourists; and I have plenty of thoughts, most unrelated to VIA.

I'm all for investing in VIA, including this route; but I would certainly want some comparative discussion on what other tourism drawing investments are on the table before one invests heavily in trying to grow The Canadian's ridership.
 
I'm all for investing in VIA, including this route; but I would certainly want some comparative discussion on what other tourism drawing investments are on the table before one invests heavily in trying to grow The Canadian's ridership.
I‘m the first one to admit that there is no value-for-money for investing into expanding VIA‘s long-distance services (especially when the aim is to facilitate intercity travel, where buses are orders-of-magnitudes better and more cost-effective), but I think that there is enough value-for-money to invest to allow VIA to protect the future of its current long-distance operations…
 
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