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U.S. Elections 2008

Who will be the next US president?

  • John McCain

    Votes: 8 7.8%

  • Barack Obama

    Votes: 80 77.7%

  • Other

    Votes: 15 14.6%
  • Total voters
    103
BrandonTO416 said:
Nationwide the polls suggest Democrats may pick up an additional 20-30 seats in the House, so its actually trending toward a supermajority.

It will be the biggest Democratic majority in both houses of Congress and the President since the 1960's and 1930's if it turns out that way.
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*That*, I know. I'm just pointing out a little contrarian election trivia--that is, unlike the '06 midterms, where *no* existing Democratic seat, let alone incumbent, fell to the Republicans, there might be at least a couple here...
 
adma said:
*That*, I know. I'm just pointing out a little contrarian election trivia--that is, unlike the '06 midterms, where *no* existing Democratic seat, let alone incumbent, fell to the Republicans, there might be at least a couple here...
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I forget you know more about American politics than the average American. ;)
 
Heh heh. Thanks for finding that written record of my prognostication. I certainly agree with you about his choice, though I have to say that I'm not sure he'd be doing much better with Mitt Romney or whoever else he was considering.
 
I was in Erie, Pennsylvania this weekend, partly because an aimless road trip can be good for the soul when things are stressful. You wouldn't think that there was a federal election driving through Buffalo or Niagara Falls, just signs for the state assembly, sheriff, DA, judges and the county coroner (!). So I drove the extra hour to Erie, Tom Ridge country. It's nice because drivers on the NYS thruway are good, they don't block the left lane, and traffic on I-90 is never bad like the 401. Except I got cut off once with a bald, fat guy in a pickup with Ohio plates. Was that Joe the Plumber?

Man were things different there. I couldn't get much in the way of pictures, the sky was cloudy and dark, but was it interesting. I saw a truck with Obama-Biden ads covering it and playing on loudspeakers Obama speeches and pleas to get to the polling booth. The Obama office downtown was huge and packed with people. I drove to the suburbs to the south, by I-90, well-heeled areas, and even there Obama signs on lawns were everywhere, and outnumbering McCain signs by 5 to 1. Many of the McCain ads did not have his running mate on them, but most of Obama's signs had Biden on them.

If you think FPTP is bad here (and I think it is), the Electoral College is really messed up. States like New York or California or Maryland are completely ignored while states like Ohio, Missouri and Florida are pandered to. This time, we see Virginia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, get all the attention as well as the perennial swingers, a bit different.

What would things be like if he got Tom Ridge? There were a few choices that might have worked. For a short time, Palin seemed to be a shrewd, Rovian choice, but has seemed to backfire more than it should have.
 
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If you think FPTP is bad here (and I think it is), the Electoral College is really messed up. States like New York or California or Maryland are completely ignored while states like Ohio, Missouri and Florida are pandered to. This time, we see Virginia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, get all the attention as well as the perennial swingers, a bit different.
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Ha ha. And you just know that if they ever were to change this, it would require Americans to...go to the polls! And, to boot, it would probably require a 2/3 majority because it's a constitutional change.
 
Tom Ridge would have won him Pennsylvania.
 
lordmandeep said:
Tom Ridge would have won him Pennsylvania.
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Not sure about that. Americans are keen on separating federal elections from state and local elections.

Al Gore lost Tennessee in 2000, and Obama is actually polling within 4 points of McCain in Arizona this year. 4 points! Pretty amazing if you ask me. Pennsylvania is a state that has some interesting political points. The central part of the state, more than Western PA, is filled with conservative rural voters. Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, Scranton, and Erie are areas with high Democratic populations. Philly suburbs are notorious for swing voting in the federal presidential election, they chose Democrats mostly in the last 4 presidential elections (Clinton 2x, Gore, Kerry). Pittsburgh has a large urban liberal population, but outside of the major city communities its largely a blue collar Democrat area and doesn't take well to black candidates like Obama (which is unfortunate in this era) and while being to the right on cultural issues, they tend to be to the left on economic issues. They really don't like NAFTA and fair trade and other issues which Democrats have abandoned.

These "Reagan-Democrats" are easily lured on cultural issues, or were in the distant past. When Democrats give up on left leaning economic policy (doing away with socials security protections, making unemployment insurance harder to get, give up on fair trade and endorse free trade agreements) these Democrats are easily won away on the culture issues... Its a lesson Democrats have to learn if they want to retain some of their old New Deal Democrats and actually start winning elections. Obama appears he supports fair trade, but we'll see what he does in office... I'm not optimistic and worry about his chances in 2012.

So in other words, the vote that carries PA is suburban Philly and suburban Pittsburgh. These are voters that swing more heavily and the population of these places is a high proportion of the voter population in PA. Democrats will always win Pittsburgh's inner city and Allegheny County without any questions, Democrats will always win Philadelphia and inner environs, and they will generally always win other towns like Scranton and Erie. But central PA and the exurban-suburbs are key in PA.

This year they appear to be breaking for Obama. We will find out tomorrow and I'll be up at 6am to vote tomorrow.
 
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Canadian observers were sent to countries around the world to observe their elections to make sure their rules are followed and there are no problems at the polling stations.

Maybe, some Canadians observers should be sent down to do the same in some American polling stations.
 
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