TTC: Sheppard Subway Expansion (Speculative)

[Rainforest]

I would have to disagree. As someone who used to live very near Summerhill subway station, I was more likely to take two transfers, at Yonge/Bloor and then St. George, to get to Yorkdale mall than I was to take a bus across or even the St. Clair streetcar as it was then in mixed traffic. I see a similar situation for Scarborough. The important elements are the interchange, and network value, rather than the exact placement of the station.

Your choice was quite reasonable for your trip, since the indirect route involved only subways, while a direct route would involve surface transit that is (or was before St Clair ROW) very slow in that part of the city.

STC to Don Mills is a different situation. Both McCowan and Brimley buses have branches that serve STC and go north, and a 1.5 km trip on those buses up to Sheppard, even in mixed traffic, is likely faster than backtracking via Markham Rd.

Plus, it should be taken into account that people are used to bus 190, and once the direct connection between STC and Don Mills is lost, many riders will start complaining.

 

[quicksilver]

A subway connection from Agincourt to STC will be faster and more convenient, but can cost over a billion, and will be an easy target for critisizm because of low ridership. Most of people travelling from STC do not want to go northwest towards NYCC, but rather southwest towards the downtown or midtown. So, we will see full SRT trains leaving STC towards Kennedy, and high-capacity, but very lightly used, subway trains going north-west. The construction costs will soon be forgotten, but the nearly empty subway trains leaving STC will be a constant eyesore in the public opinion.

More important is that a Sheppard subway extension from Don Mills to STC is forecast to cost approximately $4 billion of money that no one knows how to pay for using a technology that is far too intensive than the population warrants. The SELRT is expeted to cost 25% of that cost, is paid for, and will actually serve more people because it will travel further east, and still provide a connection to the STC by connecting with the rebuilt SRT.

 

[quicksilver]

STC to Don Mills is a different situation. Both McCowan and Brimley buses have branches that serve STC and go north, and a 1.5 km trip on those buses up to Sheppard, even in mixed traffic, is likely faster than backtracking via Markham Rd.

Plus, it should be taken into account that people are used to bus 190, and once the direct connection between STC and Don Mills is lost, many riders will start complaining.

This may be true. I'm thinking of specifically of transit riders who tend to avoid buses in favour of rail, and preferrably rail in dedicated lanes. It may be that some riders already taking the 190 would prefer to continue with their familiar route.

 

[nfitz]

Frankly, I don't think such an indirect trip between NYCC and STC, with a transfer as far east as Markham Rd, will be used by anyone.

Given how buses tend to get stuck trying to cross the 401, I expect some will use it. Travel time on the LRT would be about 23 minutes; and then about 5 minutes on the SRT. Give a couple of minutes to change, so about 30 minutes. The 190 leaving Don Mills at 5 pm is scheduled to take 35 minutes. Assuming it's on time. And ignoring that traffic congestion forecasts for 2031 show that travel times will get a lot worse.

I'm sure off-peak an express bus will be faster - if there is still demand for one. Does that much of the 190 traffic in rush hour heading to STC stay on to STC? I'd have thought many would have gotten off before it crosses south of the 401.

 

[Rainforest]

More important is that a Sheppard subway extension from Don Mills to STC is forecast to cost approximately $4 billion of money that no one knows how to pay for using a technology that is far too intensive than the population warrants. The SELRT is expeted to cost 25% of that cost, is paid for, and will actually serve more people because it will travel further east, and still provide a connection to the STC by connecting with the rebuilt SRT.

Both options - subway extension or SELRT - have their pros and cons. I am not sure that SELRT will serve more people than a subway extension. SELRT will reach much further east on Sheppard, but will be hardly of any value for people who are not at a walking distance from Sheppard. Taking a bus ride to Sheppard, then LRT to Don Mills, then subway to Yonge includes too many transfers, and if they have a direct bus to Yonge, they'd rather take it. But if the subway is extended, then the bus network can be reconfigured to run more buses to the subway. So, the subway will serve people who do not live near a subway station, but nevertheless use it for a part of their trip.

I agree that we cannot afford to spend $4 billion on the Sheppard subway now, even if we had those money. But a shorter extension should be considered (say within $2 billion, provided that some of it comes from 3P). Vic Park can be reached with $1 billion already allocated for Sheppard east (for SELRT), and there is a chance to reach Warden or even Agincourt with a 3P contribution and / or the federal government contribution.

 

[Dan416]

Maybe we should just build the Sheppard subway extension at-grade down the middle of Sheppard, ducking down below intersections to avoid traffic lights. Don't even buy new rolling stock, just use the current rolling stock at-grade. Or is that against some kind of rule?

 

[drum118]

Maybe we should just build the Sheppard subway extension at-grade down the middle of Sheppard, ducking down below intersections to avoid traffic lights. Don't even buy new rolling stock, just use the current rolling stock at-grade. Or is that against some kind of rule?

Hell in the hell do people cross this dumb idea without walking miles out of their way to a traffic light intersection and then back to where they wanted to go in the first place that is only a 100 feet away???????????

You will have to build fences 100% along this area and that is far worse than the St Clair ROW. Even Ford will not support your idea.

That's is not a liveable street as plan.

Given the distance between stops and the level grade you need at the ends of the stations and the top of the road to do a grade, you are better off doing an open cut below grade, as you will only have a very short level at grade.

Me thinks you need spend a year or 2 taking engineering classes as well working on a job site to understand why your statement is off the wall. In fact, go to Islington Station and see what happens at that station for eastbound trains as that is what is going to happen at each station regardless of the curve.

Come March 21, the Sheppard LRT will be place back on the road and it will open up 2/3 years late than plan.

Sheppard Subway Goose is cooked.

The only place the existing Sheppard Subway may make it to east of Don Mills, will be either Consumer Rd or Victoria. I can live with that, though I still prefer to see the whole line LRT right over to Downsview and then over to Weston Rd.

 

[sixrings]

the only place the existing sheppard subway may make it to east of don mills, will be either consumer rd or victoria. I can live with that, though i still prefer to see the whole line lrt right over to downsview and then over to weston rd.

agreed +1

 

[BurlOak]

Maybe we should just build the Sheppard subway extension at-grade down the middle of Sheppard, ducking down below intersections to avoid traffic lights. Don't even buy new rolling stock, just use the current rolling stock at-grade. Or is that against some kind of rule?

With the current rolling stock? If the subways could have dual power (3rd rail and overhead) then it might work, but it would take about 200 to 250m on either side of the intersection (about 500m total) to begin and finish to process of "ducking" under intersections - and major roads are about 1km apart - so even if all minor crossings of Sheppard are closed it would still require trenching half the length of the road.

 

[Paleo]

For anyone that missed the numbers from the Sheppard subway report and insist on trotting out the "massive growth" talking point as justification:

Employment growth in North York Centre and Scarborough Centre.
NYC: 29,400 to 93,400 (1986-2011, projected); 30,200 (2006, actual) a less than 3% gain in 20 years.
STC: 14,400 to 65,000 (1986-2011, projected); 13,700 (2006, actual) for a 5% loss in 20 years.

Throwing up a few condos and building a subway between the two centres won't pull ridership out of thin air since all the jobs have located to Markham, Mississauga, or even downtown.

 

[BurlOak]

For anyone that missed the numbers from the Sheppard subway report and insist on trotting out the "massive growth" talking point as justification:

Employment growth in North York Centre and Scarborough Centre.
NYC: 29,400 to 93,400 (1986-2011, projected); 30,200 (2006, actual) a less than 3% gain in 20 years.
STC: 14,400 to 65,000 (1986-2011, projected); 13,700 (2006, actual) for a 5% loss in 20 years.

Throwing up a few condos and building a subway between the two centres won't pull ridership out of thin air since all the jobs have located to Markham, Mississauga, or even downtown.

With numbers like that, maybe we should cancel the LRT (including the $500M for the 0.5km tunnel under hwy 404 and the $500M for the remaing 11km) and just do BRT lite. Use the money (and you will not even need all of it) to elevate Eglinton and have a grade separated line from Malvern to Jane.

 

[andrewpmk]

For anyone that missed the numbers from the Sheppard subway report and insist on trotting out the "massive growth" talking point as justification:

Employment growth in North York Centre and Scarborough Centre.
NYC: 29,400 to 93,400 (1986-2011, projected); 30,200 (2006, actual) a less than 3% gain in 20 years.
STC: 14,400 to 65,000 (1986-2011, projected); 13,700 (2006, actual) for a 5% loss in 20 years.

Throwing up a few condos and building a subway between the two centres won't pull ridership out of thin air since all the jobs have located to Markham, Mississauga, or even downtown.

This problem is self-inflicted. If commercial taxes were lower than there would have been more job growth in these areas.

 

[vz64]

For anyone that missed the numbers from the Sheppard subway report and insist on trotting out the "massive growth" talking point as justification:

Employment growth in North York Centre and Scarborough Centre.
NYC: 29,400 to 93,400 (1986-2011, projected); 30,200 (2006, actual) a less than 3% gain in 20 years.
STC: 14,400 to 65,000 (1986-2011, projected); 13,700 (2006, actual) for a 5% loss in 20 years.

Throwing up a few condos and building a subway between the two centres won't pull ridership out of thin air since all the jobs have located to Markham, Mississauga, or even downtown.

So, the only users of subway are commuters? And, if I recall it correctly, the downtown employment growth numbers (in %) were as low as NYCC and STC. Should we not even think about building DRL?

 

[drum118]

With the current rolling stock? If the subways could have dual power (3rd rail and overhead) then it might work, but it would take about 200 to 250m on either side of the intersection (about 500m total) to begin and finish to process of "ducking" under intersections - and major roads are about 1km apart - so even if all minor crossings of Sheppard are closed it would still require trenching half the length of the road.

Even if you did the duel power at grade, all the platforms will have to be raised and that will require a long ramp to the platform to meet accessibility standards. You just moved the station further away from the intersection as well increase the building cost of the platform 3 times as much. You will get flack from the NIMBY's for this platform, even though it used on other systems.

A number of transit planners in the US have already recommenced this high platform idea for the LRT, so the existing station don't have to touch when converting the subway to LRT. They don't support the subway as is or plan, as it fails to meet subway standards that they use. They are following this mess up here.

 

[Paleo]

So, the only users of subway are commuters? And, if I recall it correctly, the downtown employment growth numbers (in %) were as low as NYCC and STC. Should we not even think about building DRL?

Commuters are by far the biggest "customer" (trip generator) for transit so yes if don't want a line that will bleed money forever, it had better serve that market as a first priority.

Build DRL because it was needed back in the 1980s and still needed now.