TTC: Sheppard Subway Expansion (Speculative)

[LAz]

So Ford's mayor and wants to expand the Sheppard subway. If we can have topics for transit city lines, I figure why not have this too.



Only recently did I notice that he also wants to expand it westwards.

What impact might this have on traffic jams along the 401?

 

[Voltz]

It would have a negligible impact on 401 traffic at best.

 

[lafard]

If it carries 100,000 passengers per day, it might take 20,000 cars per day off the 401. That's probably optimistic because the number of people riding Downsview to STC are a small subset, most would go south at Yonge or Downsview. These people are by and large already riding the TTC to work.

The 300,000 new condos along Sheppard you need to pay for it will add 100,000 cars per day to the 401.

It will, ironically, probably make traffic worse in that part of the city. North York Centre is a disaster zone in the morning trafficwise because enough of the new residents aren't taking the subway that it make a net gain in traffic.

 

[JWBF]

Taking congestion from the 401, although important, is not really that important. The 401 is just mostly another route for commuters into Toronto. What concerns me is the increased strain on the YUS line that will happen without a north-south plan.

(I sound pessimistic but I'm happy something is being done.)

 

[Rainforest]

If it carries 100,000 passengers per day, it might take 20,000 cars per day off the 401. That's probably optimistic because the number of people riding Downsview to STC are a small subset, most would go south at Yonge or Downsview. These people are by and large already riding the TTC to work.

The 300,000 new condos along Sheppard you need to pay for it will add 100,000 cars per day to the 401.

It will, ironically, probably make traffic worse in that part of the city. North York Centre is a disaster zone in the morning trafficwise because enough of the new residents aren't taking the subway that it make a net gain in traffic.

First of all, I doubt that 300,000 condos on Sheppard alone can be ever sold. Most likely, the P3-only financing idea won't go anywhere, and Sheppard will be built mostly with public funds if it gets built at all.

Furthermore, the Sheppard extension won't change the total population of 416 (which will be growing anyway), just shift some of that growth to Sheppard Ave. But even if those people settle elsewhere in 416, they will contribute to traffic.

This is, IMO, a more accurate prediction: 401 traffic will be getting worse with or without Sheppard subway, just because of the population growth; Sheppard subway will ease it somewhat, but not enough to offset the trend.

 

[LAz]

That's probably optimistic because the number of people riding Downsview to STC are a small subset, most would go south at Yonge or Downsview. These people are by and large already riding the TTC to work.

Well currently that is the only real use, it's a stub/feeder line.
But, if it were longer... then perhaps it can be used for cross town travel? I am thinking that it would make travel times between oh say STC and Downsview quite reasonable, and actually provide an alternative for the car. So, it might not eliminate the towards downtown rush, but it can perhaps attract riders who are not going to the downtown. There're lots of cars driving around at any time of the day.



I'd like to see it go all the way to Jane in the future. That way we would have a real northern east-west corridor.

First of all, I doubt that 300,000 condos on Sheppard alone can be ever sold.

Why must we always try to get the market rate out of everything? Why can't we get some subsidized housing for example? That would help ridership and people.

 

[Electrify]

I think if a good park and ride is built at STC, then it could take some pressure off of the 401 through Scarborough. Even if it doesn't, at least those coming from the east end will have an alternative to driving right into the city. On a fantasy map I had the Sheppard rail rapid transit (light or heavy is besides the question) going through the Rouge Valley, using the CN corridor north of Sheppard to Kingston Rd, and then tunnel under a plaza to terminate at Pickering GO.

With that said, the 401 is far worse through central Toronto than in the east. An extension to Downsview would probably relieve some traffic, but I think what would be best is to change the signage so that motorists on the eastbound 401 express are directed to merge one exit earlier into the collectors to get to Leslie St. Almost everyday you will hear about an accident on the 401 near Leslie, and that is because you have those in the express having to merge over 3 lanes to the right in heavy traffic in a very short distance, meanwhile you have those in the collectors moving over to the left because the right lane exits with minimal warning.

Also, how will the Sheppard bridge over the Don Valley be dealt with if it is built as a subway?

 

[Justin10000]

.
Why must we always try to get the market rate out of everything? Why can't we get some subsidized housing for example? That would help ridership and people.

Funny you should mention subsidized housing. There are a number of builidings in the Birchmount/Sheppard area.... and no station will be built there.

 

[Asterix]

I think if a good park and ride is built at STC, then it could take some pressure off of the 401 through Scarborough.

How do you figure?

Let's try some math. According to MTO, the average annual daily traffic on the 401 in the Kennedy->Warden area was 350,000 in 2007 (http://www.raqsb.mto.gov.on.ca/techpubs/TrafficVolumes.nsf/tvweb?OpenForm&Seq=6).

Let's say we want to get a grand total of 1% of that traffic off the road into your new park and ride. That's 3,500 cars.

How much space will that take?

Say for an average parking space we're looking at about 3x5m. Lets be very conservative an only add an extra 3x2m for that spot's share of the communal areas of the parking lot, so 3x7m = 21m^2 per car.

3,500 cars * 21m^2/car = 73,500m^2 of land required for this parking lot (likely a whole lot more when you account for actual required communal areas, access roads and the like).

How big is that really?

That would be a block of land 250m x 294m.

How does that compare to STC?

A very rough block drawn generally covering the mall at http://www.gmap-pedometer.com/?r=4338304 looks to be about 1,000 in circumference or about 250m x 250m or not enough space to park the cars of even 1% of the 401 traffic passing by that spot every day. How much of that green space around STC would you be willing to use for your park and ride? What would be the opportunity cost of using those spaces for parking lots vs having developers pay to develop buildings that pay taxes and generate economic development (you know, to pay for the subway)?

How big a difference would it make to the 401 there to remove that 1% of traffic?

According to http://www.raqsb.mto.gov.on.ca/techpubs/TrafficVolumes.nsf/fa027808647879788525708a004b5df8/b584ea36565db6108525745f006dd90a/$FILE/Provincial%20Highways%20traffic%20Volumes%201988-2007.pdf (page 606), that would about cover the growth in use for two-three years.

 

[Electrify]

Ever heard of a multi-level parking structure?

 

[LAz]

Funny you should mention subsidized housing. There are a number of builidings in the Birchmount/Sheppard area.... and no station will be built there.

The plan will look like this, right?
http://transit.toronto.on.ca/images/subway-5110-02.jpg

Maybe they can make thing like willowdale, for the future.
[ ]At any rate, in the capitalist post-industrial economy nobody gives a rats ass for urban poor. They will most likely look to demolish/flush out the poor, perhaps first ghettoize them and condemn them - then rebuild their former residence for high income housing. So as a modern planner, who like all others says fuck the poor, we really don't need to worry about making a station for them. "cause you know, what's wrong with selling at only market rate. The market fixes everything. [/capitalist and libertarian white male masculine jackass lobby schmucks]

 

[jeffreym]

http://stevemunro.ca/wp-content/uploads/2010/12/201012TTCSheppardSubway.pdf

 

[Dan416]

I could have sworn there already was a Sheppard Subway extension thread...

That said, there still isn't a real "plan" per se. I don't think they've even formally cancelled SELRT yet. So, yes, there was the previous Sheppard Subway plan's alignment from when it was chopped, but there isn't really a current one nor any stations selected. I guess it depends how valid the old EA is and how far it went (e.g. did it go to STC and Downsview or just to Vic Park, I don't know). Does anyone have a copy of the original EA?

I'm doubtful that the P3 will take off. But if it does, good for Toronto.

 

[Asterix]

Ever heard of a multi-level parking structure?

Which costs more to build.

What kind of parking fee are you going to charge? Are people going to be willing to pay it? How will the money from that compare to what you could receive from development charges and future property tax from a building that actually contributes something economically?

Given the concept of induced demand, how does your expenditure produce any discernible value from alleviating traffic on the 401? Is the best way to reduce congestion really to build massive parking structures on prime development land?

 

[accura407]

At least we know that each and every car in a parking structure is guarenteed to use the subway, which means higher ridership. It also really promotes transit as part of a multi modal transport for people's commutes! Why is yorkdale such a successful mutli-modal point? It is also why york mills is less successful...because they didn't accomdate the automobile portion of a mixed mode commute.

A condo development on the other hand guarentees that more vehicles will be on the road...

This ideology that people will one day wake up and throw away their keys is laughable. The important point to consider is how one's journey can be modified through the use of transit. If people are travelling down the 401, they are most likely to make a change in travel mode if there is a fast and efficient facility to change modes.

Don Mills does this reasonably well for 404, Yorkdale does this exceptionally well for 401, 407 station will do the same for 407 and 400. Scarborough Town Centre has so far been poor in doing this...

If it becomes a subway interchange + go bus terminal + 401 adjacent to it...it can be far better than today's Yorkdale!

In Summary, Parking Lots/Garages have much more benefit than just "being a spot to park cars"