Brandon716
Senior Member
We shall see! You seem quite confident, wished I understood your reasoning.
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Travers: The quiet unravelling of Canadian democracy
- Thread starter afransen
- Start date
We shall see! You seem quite confident, wished I understood your reasoning.
lordmandeep
Banned
its simple once there is a stronger Liberal party people would naturally flock to them as in the past. NDP voters would realize if the Liberal leader can beat Harper they would support him.
Also ever since the Coalition debacle the NDP has lost a ton of credibility and is no longer seen as the party above it all.
You have seen this in poll numbers which have the NDP below 15% mostly going to the Liberals.
Also ever since the Coalition debacle the NDP has lost a ton of credibility and is no longer seen as the party above it all.
You have seen this in poll numbers which have the NDP below 15% mostly going to the Liberals.
Brandon716
Senior Member
Actually I haven't seen a poll in a long time, any links?
afransen
Senior Member
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20090408.wpoll08/BNStory/politics/home
I'm not sure how meaningful it is. Right now the Liberals are a blank slate, since Iggy hasn't really done much besides not being Dion. The Tories should be quite worried about Ontario. They've written off gains in Quebec, and a huge unfavourable spread in Ontario puts many of their seats under water. Not enough for the Liberals to form government perhaps, but enough to return the numbers more like Harper's first mandate, or worse. That of course would be the end of him, politically. Honestly, he seems like a dead man walking to me.
I'm not sure how meaningful it is. Right now the Liberals are a blank slate, since Iggy hasn't really done much besides not being Dion. The Tories should be quite worried about Ontario. They've written off gains in Quebec, and a huge unfavourable spread in Ontario puts many of their seats under water. Not enough for the Liberals to form government perhaps, but enough to return the numbers more like Harper's first mandate, or worse. That of course would be the end of him, politically. Honestly, he seems like a dead man walking to me.
lordmandeep
Banned
I would imagine seats like Oakville or Thornhill or Mississauga-Erindale could easily switch with a proper liberal leader.
afransen
Senior Member
I live in the latter riding. I'd say the Conservatives would be hard pressed to hold it. Their guy isn't too bad, but I think he will be swept away by anger over the economy.
adma
Superstar
Especially given how it was a bit of a fluke that Miss-Erindale was the *only* Mississauga/Brampton seat to go Tory.
My feeling is, Iggy and his machine's got good old-fashioned "pull" among the imgorants who useta rubber-stamp their vote for Chretien/Martin. Oakville might be tougher because it's more naturally "WASPy", and Thornhill might be tougher if the pro-Zionist "Asper Tory" element (sort of like our version of the anti-Castro Cuban Republicans out around Miami) holds...
My feeling is, Iggy and his machine's got good old-fashioned "pull" among the imgorants who useta rubber-stamp their vote for Chretien/Martin. Oakville might be tougher because it's more naturally "WASPy", and Thornhill might be tougher if the pro-Zionist "Asper Tory" element (sort of like our version of the anti-Castro Cuban Republicans out around Miami) holds...
Brandon716
Senior Member
Thanks for the link afran, that suggests an election this year wouldn't be a bad idea. Maybe summer?
afransen
Senior Member
I don't think it's likely. I can imagine the Fall or next Spring. Iggy is in the process of rebuilding the party and paying off debts. I think they also want to let all the bad news come out about the economy.
kEiThZ
Superstar
I would say an election in the Fall or spring as well. Economist say the recession will bottom out (unemployment wise) at the end of the year. That would be the best time for the Liberals to pounce.
Back on topic. I have always hoped that we might some day see the development of true parliamentary democracy in the same vein as the UK where MPs really do work hard to represent their constituents. Achieving that though would take a lot more than electoral reform. All those who want PR often fail to show how that would improve local representation. It might get in members from smaller parties. But it would do nothing to actually better represent Canadians. What we really need is a weaker party system. Fewer whipped votes, a media that does not treat every failed vote in parliament as a sign of diminished confidence in the ruling party, etc. It's amazing, for example, to look at the number of votes Margaret Thatcher lost in parliament. Yet, nobody suggested that the Iron Lady should give up and resign just cause she lost the vote on an issue here or there.
Back on topic. I have always hoped that we might some day see the development of true parliamentary democracy in the same vein as the UK where MPs really do work hard to represent their constituents. Achieving that though would take a lot more than electoral reform. All those who want PR often fail to show how that would improve local representation. It might get in members from smaller parties. But it would do nothing to actually better represent Canadians. What we really need is a weaker party system. Fewer whipped votes, a media that does not treat every failed vote in parliament as a sign of diminished confidence in the ruling party, etc. It's amazing, for example, to look at the number of votes Margaret Thatcher lost in parliament. Yet, nobody suggested that the Iron Lady should give up and resign just cause she lost the vote on an issue here or there.
lordmandeep
Banned
Igantieff is really reeling in the immigrant vote, which the Tories did a good job getting in the last two elections. He seems like the old school Liberal leaders which we like.
Lol, do not forget Trudeau and Chretien are like a demi-God's in the Indian community...
So that will mean you will see a return to all of GTA turing red apart from Oshawa, Burlington.
Lol, do not forget Trudeau and Chretien are like a demi-God's in the Indian community...
So that will mean you will see a return to all of GTA turing red apart from Oshawa, Burlington.
jks
Continuous Lurker
Oh, god, I wish for nothing more than to see Jim Flaherty kicked headfirst out of office as the Oshawa PM, and even more as the finance minister. I so wished the NDP candidate kicked him out. It cam e somewhat close...
urbandreamer
recession proof
Q: If you wanna worship at the Church of Michael Ignatieff this weekend, where would you go?
Answer: Russian Orthodox Church of the Holy Trinity on Henry Street this coming Saturday around midnight, for Eastern Orthodox Easter Liturgy.
Cya there (along with my Russian stripper friends.)
Answer: Russian Orthodox Church of the Holy Trinity on Henry Street this coming Saturday around midnight, for Eastern Orthodox Easter Liturgy.
Cya there (along with my Russian stripper friends.
)
lordmandeep
Banned
Things have shifted especially among my friends...
They were leaning Green, NDP or Tory in the last election as they thought the Liberals were not that mainstream anymore as they use to be. Meaning they shifted wayyy to the left.
However, they all think the Liberals are the strong party of the centre and they will likely win back a lot of these voters.
So with more support with disenfranchised NDP supporters and moderates, I think the Liberals will guarantee 100 seat showing and have a great shot at forming a minority.
Yes some young people vote!!!
It makes no sense, my views are more inline with the Tories but I just think Liberals are better.
They were leaning Green, NDP or Tory in the last election as they thought the Liberals were not that mainstream anymore as they use to be. Meaning they shifted wayyy to the left.
However, they all think the Liberals are the strong party of the centre and they will likely win back a lot of these voters.
So with more support with disenfranchised NDP supporters and moderates, I think the Liberals will guarantee 100 seat showing and have a great shot at forming a minority.
Yes some young people vote!!!
It makes no sense, my views are more inline with the Tories but I just think Liberals are better.
urbandreamer
recession proof
To answer the topic: Canadian democracy ended in the 1960's with Trudeaumania.... It was truly finished with the signing of NAFTA.
I predict there won't be an election until October 2010 at the earliest. (I am friends with a Liberal Party bigshot...even though I hate Liberals! And Conservatives!)
I predict there won't be an election until October 2010 at the earliest. (I am friends with a Liberal Party bigshot...even though I hate Liberals! And Conservatives!
)