Transit Fantasy Maps

[doady]

Highway 427 is a better corridor for a subway line than Dundas Street? No way. Like MCC, the airport is best served by GO. And it's not like transit on Eglinton can't provide local service to the airport. After all, Eglinton is much closer to the airport than Bloor.

Ridership along Dundas is currently around 20,000 boardings per weekday, compared to around 26,000 for Hurontario, and 20,000 for YRT between Finch and Bernard. Dundas is the third busiest in the 905. The busiest section is between Hurontario and Dixie, so obviously this means the demand for local transit is very high, even if the fact that the busiest bus route in the 905 has no connection at all to the TTC didn't make that clear enough.

Would an upgraded Milton Line really "cannibalize" local transit ridership along Dundas Street? I can't imagine it. I don't think that is how transit works.

Cooksville and Dixie stations are both too far a walking distance from the Dundas corridor to serve it directly. If a Cawthra station is added, that would only mean higher local transit ridership along Dundas, not less. Enhanced GO/REX service for the Milton corridor would mean higher local transit ridership throughout Mississauga, including in the Dundas corridor.

 

[M II A II R II K]

It depends on where these Dundas East riders are going. If they are taking it for short trips then a BD extension would be good since it would provide short range rapid transit along Dundas East. But no much to have a line there if most of the people are using it to get to downtown, then they should take GO.

 

[Hipster Duck]

I understand that local bus traffic along Dundas street in Mississauga is quite busy, but I wonder if an extension of the BD subway is the best solution for local needs, especially if the faster, higher capacity, long haul riders are taking the parallel REX line, anyway.

Even if cost was no object, wouldn't there be operational issues related to being part of a 45 km subway line, as opposed to a 15 km, separate rapid transit line? I mean, it's crazy to think that a passenger who only wants to travel from, say, Hurontario to Dixie might be affected by a service disruption in Scarborough.

 

[unimaginative2]

Interesting points, doady. Would you prefer to route a line entirely along Dundas, bypassing Sherway? Assuming that pretty much all of the longer distance trips would use an express line, then we're left with local use riders along Dundas for the subway. Where are these people going? Are they going to Kipling to transfer to the subway? Are they going west of Hurontario? Are they going to the warehouses and other businesses along Dundas, which would presumably be displaced by development? Are people transferring from other bus routes? Bus routes would be re-aligned to feed into the regional rail stations, so their distance from Dundas would be much less of a problem for bus passengers.

Here's another possibility: if the Dundas corridor is key, then there's no reason why the diversion of regional rail couldn't be extended further east and run along Dundas for part or all of the way to Kipling. The construction cost shouldn't be much different from a subway.

I daresay that Dundas as you describe it sounds like a great candidate for a light rail line supplementing an express rapid transit line. A properly designed LRT along Dundas from Kipling to Hurontario (or beyond) could connect at various points with the regional rail line and effectively serve local traffic. If you're talking about a subway for Mississauga, Hurontario might be a good candidate for a partially underground, partially elevated line.

 

[gweed123]

So I'm looking to turn my REX plan into a pamphlet type of thing that can be easily read and understood by anyone (getting people to understand it is the first step towards getting people to start asking for it). But before I do that, I need to do some costing on this bad boy. Unfortunately, I don't really have any idea what the per km costs for these types of projects are. If any of you know the approximate per km cost (or even if someone else has already done the estimate) of the following items, it would be greatly appreciated. Once I get these, I can start some number crunching:

-Per km cost of adding a new track to an existing main line (the additional track between Port Credit and Oakville may be a good benchmark)
-Per km cost of electrifying a line
-Cost to build a new overpass or underpass (Sheppard East may be a good benchmark for this)
-Approximate cost of a new GO station

If anyone has any numbers for me, it would be greatly appreciated, thanks!

 

[Dan416]

Interesting points, doady. Would you prefer to route a line entirely along Dundas, bypassing Sherway? Assuming that pretty much all of the longer distance trips would use an express line, then we're left with local use riders along Dundas for the subway. Where are these people going? Are they going to Kipling to transfer to the subway? Are they going west of Hurontario? Are they going to the warehouses and other businesses along Dundas, which would presumably be displaced by development? Are people transferring from other bus routes? Bus routes would be re-aligned to feed into the regional rail stations, so their distance from Dundas would be much less of a problem for bus passengers.

Here's another possibility: if the Dundas corridor is key, then there's no reason why the diversion of regional rail couldn't be extended further east and run along Dundas for part or all of the way to Kipling. The construction cost shouldn't be much different from a subway.

I daresay that Dundas as you describe it sounds like a great candidate for a light rail line supplementing an express rapid transit line. A properly designed LRT along Dundas from Kipling to Hurontario (or beyond) could connect at various points with the regional rail line and effectively serve local traffic. If you're talking about a subway for Mississauga, Hurontario might be a good candidate for a partially underground, partially elevated line.

IIRC doady has been pretty consistent in expressing a preference for skipping Sherway on the subway extension west.

As for where those riders are going, I do not know. But the riders are there.

Diverting the GO line under Dundas seems even more unlikely than diverting it to MCC...

 

[unimaginative2]

IIRC doady has been pretty consistent in expressing a preference for skipping Sherway on the subway extension west.

As for where those riders are going, I do not know. But the riders are there.

Diverting the GO line under Dundas seems even more unlikely than diverting it to MCC...

I thought you were a skeptic of these simplistic Transit City ideas like "There are X riders in a corridor." What matters is why these people are traveling and where they're going. If they're going to points west in Mississauga, they'll ride the regional rail line. If they're going to MCC or the Cooksville area, they'll ride the faster regional rail line. The only people who would use a Dundas subway a five minute walk from a regional rail line is if they're right on Dundas. 20,000 per day is a busy bus route, and that would make a good base for a subway line. But a rapid transit line needs more than 20,000 people a day, and if everybody else (the people from connecting buses, the people walking from surrounding neighbourhoods) rides a parallel route, it doesn't seem terribly logical. If, someday, the regional rail line (which, remember, would have a capacity well above that of the Yonge Subway) is so overcrowded that it needs relief in this segment, then by all means, build a parallel subway.

Well, to be frank, running a regional rail line under Dundas seems more likely than running two rapid transit lines in parallel a couple hundred metres from one another.

 

[BurlOak]

So I'm looking to turn my REX plan into a pamphlet type of thing that can be easily read and understood by anyone (getting people to understand it is the first step towards getting people to start asking for it). But before I do that, I need to do some costing on this bad boy. Unfortunately, I don't really have any idea what the per km costs for these types of projects are. If any of you know the approximate per km cost (or even if someone else has already done the estimate) of the following items, it would be greatly appreciated. Once I get these, I can start some number crunching:

-Per km cost of adding a new track to an existing main line (the additional track between Port Credit and Oakville may be a good benchmark)
-Per km cost of electrifying a line
-Cost to build a new overpass or underpass (Sheppard East may be a good benchmark for this)
-Approximate cost of a new GO station

If anyone has any numbers for me, it would be greatly appreciated, thanks!

I was curious on what amount of expansion is needed for the network. I added the number of trains required per hour (per direction) onto your map.

1. Phase 1 - Electrify only the Local lines (plus the Brampton to Cummer), with 12 minute frequency and 20 minute frequency for the REX alternating with the 20 minutes frequency Peak Express. West of Union, 15 trains per hour per direction are needed - probably 1 electrified track each direction. For the more conventional Diesel GO lines, 27 trains per hour would be needed.

2. Phase 2 - Electrify all REX lines and the Local lines, with 10 minute frequency and 15 minute frequency for Peak Express. West of Union, 48 trains per hour per direction are needed - probably 2 electrified tracks per direction is not enough - also depends on whether the ARL electric is running express or local (or alternating) or whether any of the REX lines would have express capabilities.

3. Phase 3 - Electrify all REX lines and the Local lines, with 7.5 minute frequency and 12 minute frequency for Peak Express. West of Union, 64 trains per hour per direction are needed.

Of course, I assumed the same frequency on each line, which may not be required or logical. I might call the Mississauga-Malvern a Local line since Mississauga and Malvern are both Local stops on their respective Green and Yellow lines. Looking at the train frequencies of your Cummer to Eglinton stretch, it may make more sence to call the second Crosstown line a REX (and make it dashed) that goes from Brampton (Mount Pleasant) to Markham - both of which are REX stops on other lines - provided you can make the curve between those 2 lines.

For bridge costs, I would use a cost of about $5k to $10k per square metre of plan area. With the grades needed for the crossing, that would work out to about $5M per traffic lane.

 

[sixrings]

how are any of these frequencys realistic without there being a heavy loss. The subways run every 5 minutes but has a bizzilion stations in dense areas to justify ridership. how can you get anywhere near that same ridership at cooksville? personally i think every 20 minutes is more then enough. people are dying for simple all day every hour go service which we cant afford. Im not saying I wouldnt like the service but it just seems to frequent to be able to attract that many riders. I do understand the more frequent something is the more people will use it. But at the same time you have to be realistic with the approach. I dont want to subsidize each rider 10$ a ride.

 

[M II A II R II K]

I guess truncated lines would have twice or more times the frequencies before the different routes branch out.

20 minutes off peak seems more realistic.

 

[rbt]

how are any of these frequencys realistic without there being a heavy loss. The subways run every 5 minutes but has a bizzilion stations in dense areas to justify ridership. how can you get anywhere near that same ridership at cooksville?

It's going to be a slow growth but there is no reason why GO could not grow to carry the same volume of people that TTC does within 20 years. The main constraint (after ~$8B in electrification and efficiency upgrades) is going to be feeder routes and fare integration with TTC to allow seamless transfers without a large jump in cost.

Metrolinx is tasked with finding $2.5B/year in revenue in their 2013 financing report which should be able to take care of feeder routes (BRT, LRT, etc.) if implemented.

Georgetown corridor could easily hit 250,000 riders per day within 5 years just from Brampton south if local transit (TTC) treated it like a trunk route the same as the Yonge line.

SRT transfers at Kennedy onto GO to Union could hit 30,000 riders per day within 6 months if service was boosted to 10 minute frequencies and the transfer is the same as going to Danforth subway. Double or triple that number when the SRT upgrades and Eglinton are complete if the GO station is integrated better into Kennedy.


I think both Lake Shore East and Lake Shore West have potential to hit 400,000 riders (each) per day as well. Add a Humber Bay stop near the streetcar loop for example in a way that you just cross the platform. Now make LakeShore a separate service from Queen.


About three decades after GO decides to become a trunk service instead of exclusively commutter rail it will have it's ~2 million passengers per day. We're going to spend tens of billions improving transfers and building out feeder service to their stations. GO will be profitable, those feeder services won't be.

 

[M II A II R II K]

And what's the rush to electrify anyway... I'm sure cars pump out so many more fumes that these trains would hardly make a difference.

 

[Dan416]

I thought you were a skeptic of these simplistic Transit City ideas like "There are X riders in a corridor." What matters is why these people are traveling and where they're going. If they're going to points west in Mississauga, they'll ride the regional rail line. If they're going to MCC or the Cooksville area, they'll ride the faster regional rail line. The only people who would use a Dundas subway a five minute walk from a regional rail line is if they're right on Dundas. 20,000 per day is a busy bus route, and that would make a good base for a subway line. But a rapid transit line needs more than 20,000 people a day, and if everybody else (the people from connecting buses, the people walking from surrounding neighbourhoods) rides a parallel route, it doesn't seem terribly logical. If, someday, the regional rail line (which, remember, would have a capacity well above that of the Yonge Subway) is so overcrowded that it needs relief in this segment, then by all means, build a parallel subway.

Well, to be frank, running a regional rail line under Dundas seems more likely than running two rapid transit lines in parallel a couple hundred metres from one another.

It's not like the Dundas bus is empty at peak hours (when the GO train is packed). So I'm not quite sure where you get the idea that these are the same riders.

 

[unimaginative2]

The key is to provide a base level of consistent service. As long as you're in this GO Transit mentality that you only run trains when they're full, you're never going to have a decent service and your ridership will stay depressed. Most people won't rely on a service and most developers won't build around stations unless you can count on a train coming all day, every day without having to check a schedule.

Many subway stations aren't in "dense areas," yet they're extremely busy. Look at York Mills, which is surrounded by estate homes and forest. It's all about the connecting local transit, and local transit can only be oriented to a rapid transit line in a hub and spoke approach if the trains are frequent enough. Berlin runs S-Bahn trains every 10 minutes, Munich runs them every 20. Their "density" is comparable to ours, so somewhere between those levels of service would be ideal. 10 minutes would be best, as people connecting from buses wouldn't want to wait much longer than that.

Electrification is essential because it provides the acceleration necessary to maintain travel times while increasing the number of stations to provide rapid transit service.

It's not like the Dundas bus is empty at peak hours (when the GO train is packed). So I'm not quite sure where you get the idea that these are the same riders.

Because I'm not talking about a GO commuter train.

 

[gweed123]

I was curious on what amount of expansion is needed for the network. I added the number of trains required per hour (per direction) onto your map.

Perfect analysis, thank you BurlOak!

The key with this GO system is the overlapping of routes in areas where the higher frequency is needed. In the suburbs, they may only need 20 minute service. But in Toronto, where there is the density and the connecting routes to support higher frequencies, the frequencies are there.

The success of this system depends on the capacity and reliability of the connecting feeder routes, particularly in the 905. If the municipalities can re-orient their service to be effective feeder lines, the ridership on GO REX will pay for itself. If GO REX has to rely on space in their parking lots for the bulk of their ridership, the system in the 905 may have problems.

The Toronto service I have no doubts that it will be successful, because the bus system already carries a lot of people. They may have to rejig a couple of routes, but by and large the bus service is already set up well to feed into the GO REX system.