Transit City Plan

[fanoftoronto]

What I don't understand is when people say that a subway costs 5 times more than LRT which is completely not true. The current estimates for the Eglinton LRT is $4.6 billion when a subway would cost roughly $7.5 billion for the same line. LRT is cheaper but George Smitherman is WAY off when he says 5 times more!!

 

[Dan416]

Maybe he's comparing the at-grade portion to how much it'd cost to bury it, as opposed to the tunneled LRT with subway? I'm not sure.

 

[Rainforest]

What I don't understand is when people say that a subway costs 5 times more than LRT which is completely not true. The current estimates for the Eglinton LRT is $4.6 billion when a subway would cost roughly $7.5 billion for the same line. LRT is cheaper but George Smitherman is WAY off when he says 5 times more!!

Well, yes and no. That 5:1 ratio is a good ballpark estimate for the difference between a tunneled segment and a surface LRT segment of the same length. However, about 1/3 of Eglinton LRT must be tunnelled anyway, since the central part of Eglinton is not wide enough for surface LRT. That greatly increases the projected cost of the whole Eglinton LRT, so the aggregate cost ratio between the subway and the LRT option is probably less than 2:1.

One might wish that a person as experienced as Mr. Smitherman can formulate it without ambiguity ... or perhaps this is too much to ask.

 

[fanoftoronto]

I am no expert at infrastructure but the math doesn't add up for the eglinton lrt. if you take the tunnelled versus non-tunnelled sections, taking $200 million for every kilometre of tunnelling as per Sheppard subway figures.

Tunnelled sections cost: 10 kilometres * $200 million = $2 Billion
Non-Tunnelled sections per kilometre = $4.6 billion - $2 billion = $2.6 billion
$2.6 billion/23 kilometres = $113 Million for every kilometre above ground.

$113 million per kilometre seems a lot for above ground construction. The entire St. Clair streetcar ROW "officially" cost just above half of that and that was 6 kilometres.

I don't know about extra costs or anything so please forgive me if I am totally off!

 

[rbt]

One might wish that a person as experienced as Mr. Smitherman can formulate it without ambiguity ... or perhaps this is too much to ask.

Newspapers don't even quote entire sentences, just fragments. You would need to put that entire concept in about 10 words to hit the papers exactly as stated.

The underground portion of Eglinton may also cost a touch more for standard (for Toronto) full sized subway than LRT due to larger stations despite the slightly smaller tunnel diameter. Operating costs would also be higher due to manpower required (booths, etc.).

There is lots of room between the current underground LRT and a full fledged subway; but those wanting a subway want a Yonge line equivalent complete with 2 minute frequencies.

 

[Justin10000]

I am no expert at infrastructure but the math doesn't add up for the eglinton lrt. if you take the tunnelled versus non-tunnelled sections, taking $200 million for every kilometre of tunnelling as per Sheppard subway figures.

Tunnelled sections cost: 10 kilometres * $200 million = $2 Billion
Non-Tunnelled sections per kilometre = $4.6 billion - $2 billion = $2.6 billion
$2.6 billion/23 kilometres = $113 Million for every kilometre above ground.

$113 million per kilometre seems a lot for above ground construction. The entire St. Clair streetcar ROW "officially" cost just above half of that and that was 6 kilometres.

I don't know about extra costs or anything so please forgive me if I am totally off!

The cost would be closer to $300 Million per km for tunnel.

10km * $300Million = $3 Billion.
Non tunneled sections = $1.6 Billion
$1.6 Billion/23 = $69 Million/km.

 

[fanoftoronto]

Tunnelled portions definitely do not cost $300 million. According to Steve Munro the Sheppard subway cost for just the tunnels, tracks and stations is $172 million per kilometre. http://stevemunro.ca/?p=738

Added to that the stations aren't going to be as lavish as the Sheppard subway, the mezzanine isn't going to be as big as the Sheppard subway mezzanine.

Also, only the LRT platform is going to be finished and not the platform for the future subway conversion. ie initially only 60 m of the platform will be completely built.( page 9: http://www.toronto.ca/involved/proj...n_lrt/pdf/2009-11-20_display_panels_part1.pdf) The rest i presume will look like the centre platfrom at Sheppard-Yonge station.

These design changes will drastically reduce the cost of the tunnelled section in the eglinton lrt. Granted it could be more than $200 million but nowhere close to $300 million. It's definitely less than $250 million.

 

[Second_in_pie]

I believe the TTC's cost projections on Eglinton are $200 mil/km, which differs drastically from the crazy $300+ mil/km they put on all subway projects. Note that Sheppard was built only 10 years ago, using hugely overbuilt stations, and only came out at $172 mil/km (if fanoftoronto's numbers are right.) I think that a figure of $200 mil/km sounds about right, when using logical station and line building. In places where trenching, cut'n cover or raised guideways are possible, that number could go considerably lower.

 

[nfitz]

I am no expert at infrastructure but the math doesn't add up for the eglinton lrt. if you take the tunnelled versus non-tunnelled sections, taking $200 million for every kilometre of tunnelling as per Sheppard subway figures.

You can't take construction costs that are 15-years older without applying 15-years of inflation. The construction price index has been averaging 6% or so a year for a decade. Using MTO's inflation numbers, you would have to multiply construction that took place 15-years earlier by 192.8%. So if was $200-million/km for a project that started construction in 1996, then it would $385-milllion/km for a project that starts in 2011 (assuming the next 15-years sees the same inflation as the last 15 years).

Though there are many other factors. The Eglinton stations will be simpler, and there will be much less signalling, and a simpler electrification system. On the other hand, the tunnels for LRT are significantly larger than for subway.

 

[Rainforest]

The $4.6 billion also might include the cost of yard facilities, maybe even rolling stock, and the underground station at Don Mills (which is not part of the main underground segment).

 

[fanoftoronto]

Your numbers are wrong as the Spadina extension is costing only $290 Million per kilometre. Keep in mind that these stations are even more expansive than the Sheppard Subway!! This means that the inflation that you have noted is not present or else the Spadina extension would cost $385 MILLION per kilometre as well!!!

So if a subway costs 290 million then lrt should cost less since there is less signalling, smaller and simpler station designs etc etc, which would save you money. Granted the $4.6 Billion is for rolling stock and storage etc but even if you allocate $600 million for all these expenses, the above ground section of the LRT still costs ~$70 to $80 million per kilometre!! I thought LRT was supposed to cost around $50 million per kilometre and construction hasn't even started!!

 

[GraphicMatt]

There's a helluva lot to consider when it comes to building tunnelled subway, so napkin-math is generally kind of lame. Your costs are going to vary wildly depending on things like the existing underground infrastructure in the area, property expropriation, how deep your tunnel needs to go, connections to existing rail, environmental concerns, etc, etc, etc. In some places it will cost half a billion dollars or more to build a kilometre of subway (The bit of the DRL that would go through the CBD will likely be crazy expensive) while in others you might get away with $150m/km or even lower. It's not like the per kilometre figure really means anything - it's derived by taking the total project cost (often including vehicles and yard construction) and dividing by the length of the route. It's essentially meaningless. The total figure is what's important.

 

[nfitz]

Your numbers are wrong as the Spadina extension is costing only $290 Million per kilometre. Keep in mind that these stations are even more expansive than the Sheppard Subway!! This means that the inflation that you have noted is not present or else the Spadina extension would cost $385 MILLION per kilometre as well!!!

Part of the problem is that Sheppard didn't cost $200-million per kilometre - I'm not sure where you got that number, but it looks more like $165-million per kilometre ... don't forget there is a significant tail track west of Yonge. If you inflate that you get about $318-million per kilometre. I wouldn't be surprised if Spadina costs that before it's all said and done. Also the Sheppard construction included the tunnels that joined the Yonge line to the Sheppard line - those couldn't have been cheap.

Of course it's a lot more complex than that; but that should give you ballpark numbers.

 

[BMO]

sorry to go off topic, but does anybody know if the queensway portion of the streetcar system has transit priority? I don't see why it wouldn't, there isn't too much traffic along that route, most is handles by lakeshore.

 

[origin]

with the implosion of Giambrione (I believe the next job lost will be his TTC position), I believe Transit City is in doubt now. It could be destroyed. Maybe there is hope for BRT after all.