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Transit and Condos

University line would be much more used if the northern portions of it, largely north of St. Clair, were to densify. There will be a big uptick in ridership once the Eglinton Crosstown opens as well.

not just northern portion. Dupont station for example is surrounded by two storied houses and bungalows far apart from each other, like in the suburbs. the BD line immediately west of Spadina is of low density as well.
I agree that there is a lot of space between Queen and Dundas on Univeristy that might be right for more highrise office space. This is the avenue where height is not really an issue.

The CBD can easily expand eastward toward church and Jarvis south of Dundas too. There are like a million surface lots over there.
 
Having a rapid transit station isn't enough though. You need to be accessible to a good chunk of the city's white collar workforce by rapid transit. With GO and subways, the Financial District is accessible to most of the GTA, and much of the upper middle class areas don't even need a single transfer, including Oakville, Southern Mississauga and North Toronto. The High Park/Kingsway/Central Etobicoke (lets call this West Toronto) area has to make a transfer onto YUS if they're taking the Bloor subway, though not if they take the Milton GO. Plus you have DVP, Gardiner, Bayview, Avenue Rd, etc for people who insist on driving and/or don't want to use subway/GO if it's more than a 10 min walk (don't want to take feeder bus and no park-and-ride is available).

Here's my thoughts on the various potential new CBDs.

Yonge-Bloor (already part of downtown with semi-decent amount of office space, but still much less than the Financial District), which is accessible by all 3 subway lines, as well as some arterial roads. And the subways connect well to West and North Toronto. Downside is no direct rapid connection to the 905, although it only takes one transfer (all on rapid transit).

Yonge-Eglinton is so-so. Good location if you live in North Toronto or NYCC, not so much for West Toronto or the 905. If York gentrifies it might become a more desirable location.

Bloor West GO. UPX will be a big plus giving very quick access to both Downtown and Pearson. Also served by 3 GO lines and subway, providing pretty good access to about 1/3 of the 905, as well as West Toronto (Milton line + subway). A DRL would help if there is a station at Sunnyside for Lakeshore East and West customers to transfer (plus I guess gentrifying Leslieville and Danforth). It could also benefit from new Crosstown and Woodbridge GO lines, as well as improved GO service (2 way all day, electrification, etc). Combining GO lines so they go through downtown would also help, depending on how it's done, it could give much of the Eastern GTA good access too. There's a fair bit of potential development sites close to Bloor GO, starting with the school (could be moved) and shopping centre (Loblaws) as well as a few remaining smaller brownfield and commercial sites. Much of the housing is of modest quality in the Junction and could be redeveloped. Downside is Lakeshore West GO and North Toronto/Willowdale employees would have to deal with congested roads or transfers (but only one and rapid transit if DRL+Sunnyside are built).

ECC: Good location for West Toronto and Milton GO customers, decent access to Downtown though requiring a transfer or improved Milton GO service. Access to York Region, North York and North Toronto is mediocre, requiring a transfer onto Bloor Subway, and travelling on subway for a rather long time (subway is slow compared to GO) on top of the time it takes before the transfer. Crosstown GO could help with that though. St Clair Streetcar/LRT extension could help too. Driving from North Toronto would probably not be a good idea. Eastern GTA has poor access, requiring transfer onto Milton Line or Bloor Subway (driving means going through downtown congestion), improved GO service or maybe combining Milton Line with one (or multiple?) Eastern GTA GO line could help. Lakeshore West corridor has very poor access by transit and would need New Toronto GO station + improved transit service between New Toronto and ECC. QEW congestion is pretty bad so driving is not a very good alternative, not sure what congestion is like on the Central Etobicoke arterials.

SCC: Not that great, much of Eastern GTA is blue collar. Will not have direct transit link to Downtown unless there is a RER type route along Stouffville line branching off to SCC. Assuming Scarborough subway goes ahead it will have decent access to Yonge Bloor/Rosedale/Annex area and West Toronto. Western 905 will have poor access. York Region workers could use 407/404/401 but I'm not sure what 404 congestion is like. Not a very vibrant place to work unless you count the mall as vibrant. Access to North Toronto and Willowdale is mediocre requiring at least 1 transfer by transit. Even though it's in the Eastern GTA, it is not very well connected to the Eastern GTA by transit (Scarborough is not too bad but is also quite blue collar throughout, Durham is poorly connected) and would require taking 401 (though might not be that congested there yet?).

NYCC: So-so. 401 is congested as hell around there so driving not too great of an option (at least not from far away) so East and West GTA will probably never have particularly good access (by highway or transit). Pretty good transit access to Downtown, North Toronto and North York. York Region less so, though VIVA, Spadina Extension, Yonge Extension and Sheppard West subways could help with that if built.

Liberty Village: GO improvements would help. Would also need better connection to Downtown but improving bidirectional Lakeshore West service shouldn't be too hard. However if it's not possible to add a GO station on the North side, that could be a problem. Plus running GO lines through downtown would give the Eastern (incl. RH/Markham) GTA access.

Port Lands: Could work if flight path issues are resolved, although you could still have a decent mid rise CBD (see D.C.) but it will still be an extra 10 minutes commute compared to Southcore or the Financial District. Places like Yonge-Bloor, Liberty Village, ECC... might be further for some, but also closer for many others. There's only a rather small number of potential workers for which the Port Lands will be closer instead of 10 minutes further.

905: Mostly suburban and not very vibrant, and that will likely take a long time to change. Congestion means they will only ever be accessible by car to that particular quadrant of the GTA. As for transit, they might get one or two lines but will never have anywhere close to as good access to the GTA as a whole as Downtown. Anything in the 905 will probably be at best like an urban version of an office park and I don't think will ever be like Toronto's version of Tokyo's various CBDs, La Defense or Canary Warf. Many companies will pay a premium to be in Downtown instead of an office park, not just because office parks are non-vibrant but also since Downtown has better access to the whole GTA. That's fine, there are companies who don't need access to the entire GTA's talent pool, a somewhat decent amount based on how many office parks there are, so it would be good if they located in more urban nodes instead of places like Meadowvale.


My top votes: Bloor GO and Yonge-Bloor, maybe Liberty Village depending on whether you can get a station on the West Toronto Sub.
 
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My top votes: Bloor GO and Yonge-Bloor, maybe Liberty Village depending on whether you can get a station on the West Toronto Sub.

The main problems I'd see with Bloor GO and Y-B would be the lack of develop-able space. Yonge n Bloor has been pretty heavily condofied, so I can't see where you'd add any significant new office space. Bloor GO has almost no open space around it and is tightly hemmed in by low-rise housing which would be a pain to redevelop. LV still has space.

The one site I always imagine to be good for a commercial CBD would be Leaside and Don Mills-Eglinton. There are tons of parking lots and big lots which could be turned into large floor plate office buildings. There's DVP access. There will be rapid transit along Eglinton, which will allow convenient access to Yonge and Spadina Lines as well as trips originating along Eglinton. With improved GO service the area would be directly accessible for much of Scarborough and Richmond Hill and, with a transfer, Markham. If bypass services from Kitchener and Milton ever operated along the North Toronto subdivision the area could be just as accessible to the Western 905 as downtown.

Otherwise, I could imagine a string of mini-CBDs along the GO corridors from Eglinton/Don Mills to Leaside to East Donlands/Unliver to a more midrise 'Old Toronto' around Front, Sherbourne and King, the existing CBD/Southcore, another midrise area around Spadina and Front (e.g. The Well) and more office space in Liberty Village/CNE grounds. All would have a mix of highway, RT, GO and road access.

This image, which was in OMA's design for a Gardiner teardown, kinda hints at the layout I'd imagine.

IfCTPoY.png
 
Yonge n Bloor has been pretty heavily condofied, so I can't see where you'd add any significant new office space

not necessarily true.
There is still plenty of developable lowrise immediately south of Y/B - for example, those 1-3 stories north of Charles, a 3s parking structure on Hayden, plus the lowrise buildings north of Bloor. plus that parking lot at Bloor/Church.

Judging by the number of buildings under 3 stories within walking distance to the subway entrances, having a new CBD is not impossible, and it makes the most sense (it even rectify the mistake of building a subway on Bloor instead of Queen/King).
 

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