TJ O'Pootertoot
Senior Member
Why are you conflating two stations that have completely different contexts and reasons for existing? The argument for cutting Cummer isn't "its too close to Finch therefore it shouldn't be built", its "Building Cummer will come at the cost of building Royal Orchard or Clark, and so if we're comparing them to see which one will get built the proximity to Finch is a reason to slash Cummer."
High Tech is being built no matter. We're not building High Tech at the cost of another station, its just a cheap bonus to serve the developments in that area, and if the government was smart, could be funded directly by the developers similar to Capstan Station in Vancouver. This amount of Whataboutism doesn't work here.
In fairness, I think, in talking about Cummer, the issue isn't just "it's close to Finch" but that "it's so close to Finch AND Steeles, that the number of new riders you're capturing who can't easily use one of those two stations is minimal." High Tech is the terminal, so it doesn't have that issue - but it's fair to ask the same question: how many new riders is it capturing? The answer is, plenty.
Plus, while I'm sure more highrsise will continue along Yonge, the huge M2M development is already going in so it doesn't "need" a subway station to make it a reality. By contrast, as you say, High Tech is minimal $ and unlocking far more substantial development. And as for the government being smart, we already know this is precisely what they are doing and it's something getting kind of lost in the shuffle of all the station talk here.
They've already shown some plans for the OL, and eventually we'll hear about Scarborough and Yonge.
So ask yourself: which stations will given them the biggest bang for the buck, in terms of getting developers to offset some of the costs? Once again, in these terms, High Tech is an absolute no-brainer. M2M won't be giving a cent to the project so what other development is planned for Cummer that's remotely in the same stratosphere?
None.
Clark is kind of in the middle, with some solid potential for intensification along Yonge, especially to the south.
Royal Orchard is a tricky one, because there is that one development planned for there. But is it enough....? We'll see!
Which brings up an interesting question. Something I noticed from listening to the town hall is that some of the locals claim that if Royal Orchard is built they're not too concerned with the noise (although this is pretty typically NIMBY tactics, propose an alternative and if that alternative is implemented then forget you proposed it and still complain) so the question is would going that route while making more potential noise be more worth it and satisfy the NIMBYs.
I think you've gotten part of the issue which is, Royal Orchard is the most likely of the 3 neighbourhood stations to be cut, BUT the Option 3 alignment still protects for it, so it could always be added later. So, the Royal Orchard people are annoyed because not only are the darned trains running under their homes; they don't even get a station out of it! It's kind of a lose/lose for the Royal Orchard folks, at least from their perspective but if they got a new station, maybe they'd suck up the alleged loss of property values etc.
The route isn't going through a forest. The Roal Orchard station, if built, will probably overtake the likes of Old Mill, Glencair, Castle Frank in daily ridership.
The density around that area is generally low, although there is at least one (maybe more) multi-storey at Roal Orchard & Yonge. The catchment area will be pretty big, for both walk-in traffic and a bus from the east, resulting in a reasonable daily usage.
I admire your optimism but I don't think it'll be that good and this isn't really supported by the Intitial Business Case.
The IBC says it has limited surface connections and most riders during the day will be walk-ins. Three apartment buildings and one mixed-use development on the edge of a valley just isn't very much density.
The Initial Business Case estimates 1,320 riders in the morning weekday peak; about half what they figure for Clark and 40% of Cummer (I'm ballparking the math here.)
I don't know if there's a formula to extrapolate that into daily ridership (and TTC's stats only seem to have daily ridership) but the idea it might be one of the five worst stations (and extra deep, and expensive) but not THE actual worst isn't an idea I'm really coming around to, personally