I largely agree with the argument that the issue is not UP, but the lack of other useful service on this corridor. That said, we currently have a vastly underused resource that could be providing some real short-term mobility benefits until RER or Smarttrack gets off the ground.
Why not allow travel between Bloor/Weston/Union for standard GO fares? (Weston-Union: $5.65; Bloor-Union: $5.30; less with PRESTO). Or extend the $60 GO Metropass sticker to be valid on UP from Bloor and Weston? Let UP continue to serve primarily as a premium airport service, but fill some empty seats, pull in some extra revenue, and perhaps most importantly, build some goodwill with the public.
Is there capacity? I think so:
UPX capacity = 672 pphpd (seated capacity with 3 car trainsets)
UPX projected peak hour ridership in
2020 = ~350 pphpd, or 52% utilization
(source:
UPX Ridership Forecast)
The best GO station-level ridership numbers I could find were from a 2-year old
Parking Plan. It shows current (2013) ridership of 368/day at Weston and 50/day at Bloor, over a 3-4 hour peak-only service, so about 150 pphpd at peak.
Obviously the 15 min all-day service on UP would attract some additional riders, but how many? Anyone commuting for a 9-5 job and willing to fork out GO fares is probably already using GO. Furthermore, it's not likely to be worth it to transfer from Dundas West to UP at Bloor. The greatest source of new ridership is likely people within walking distance of Bloor station who would convert from TTC to UP, or off-peak riders at Weston. How many would switch from TTC to UP? We have some data from the $60 sticker valid at Exhibition and Danforth: they've been selling about 70/month. Maybe UP does 5x as well because it comes twice as often as the Lakeshore trains and it's a nicer product? So another 350 pax/day, or conservatively about 150/hour at peak? (I recognize there's a lot of assumptions here, but I tried to be fairly pessimistic in my numbers. I don't do this for a living (or even a hobby). Feel free to tear them apart if you know better than I do.)
All told, I get another 300 pphpd at peak, assuming all the GO riders at Weston and Bloor switch to UP and we're 5x as effective at converting TTC riders compared to the Lakeshore line. In 2020, we have 650 pphpd at peak travel time, giving 96% utilization.
And hopefully by then we have some semblance of two-way all-day service on the Kitchener Line, so we can divert the non-airport traffic to other trains.