This is where my growing concern is. This province is spending billions of dollars on a bunch of transit lines that have that very same objective....that is change your behaviour. Don't drive to Port Credit or Cooksville GO...take the LRT! Hamiltonians, get on the LRT! Everyone coming to Toronto, ditch the car and get on one of those GO trains that will be every 15 minutes each direction! etc.
If behaviours are that entrenched and if a fairly modest goal of 5k riders to the airport is so difficult to achieve....how realistic are the ridership projections on those lines (and others)? Is transit less a "build it an they will come" proposition than we believe (or are told)?
(Warning....rant on the way)
I believe that UPE was a "worst case" and not likely to be repeated in the same degree....but I agree with your concern.
The issue in my view is the lack of sensible change management insight and strategies by either the hands-on pro's (Metrolinx) or the amatuer cheering section (the UT crowd in the bleachers).
I have commented before that Presto (a very desirable initiative that I fully support) was not sensibly applied to UPE. If anyone thought the media was going to glom onto the $19 Presto fare, and not the $27 cash fare, they don't belong in Public Affairs jobs. Similarly, while Presto is wholly successful in the burbs, the average Torontonian doesn't know about it....yet. (that will change, but it wasn't the case in 2015 when UPE began to operate). Whenever we dwell on the cash fare, a whole bunch of transit we-know-better types chime in with "yes, but the fare is only $19 with Presto, and Presto is good for you, so we're right to be forcing it on you". The technical merits that make Presto a good thing don't define how you change behaviour around it. The travelling public missed the $19 fare, and they weren't ready to obtain a Presto card just to gain it.
Similarly, had UPE been painted green and white and named "GO Pearson", I believe that most Torontonians would have gotten it. The commentary in the average home would have been "Neat....we have a GO train to the Airport now". The transit intelligentsia has a million reason why a business-branded premium service makes sense. Guess what, folks....the average Joe didn't get it. Who is smarter - the average Joe who knows and loves GO, but doesn't resonate with UPE and calls the limo, or the transit geek with the million reasons why the up-scale branding is the better approach? We didn't know the customer very well. You only win the debate if the customer buys your product.
To digress from UPE - Personally, I have gotten a whole lot smarter by listening to the guys from Scarboro who have expressed some really dumb ideas in a really compelling manner. I'm now convinced that Scarboro does think that way (even if I disagree totally with what they are saying.). Whose behaviour needs changing - my logical analysis of the professionally compiled spreadsheet, or their homespun way of looking at how the cards have played out for the last 20 years?
We need to get over ourselves and base transit planning on some of these realities. Otherwise yes, we will try to build it....but the next incarnation of Ford Nation will cancel it.
- Paul