Toronto Union Pearson Express | ?m | ?s | Metrolinx | MMM Group Limited

It's just Paul mentioning those uniforms got me wondering again, how did this project get so far off the reservation, and nobody ever brought it back? (Oh right, because "world class" cities have an express train to the airport.)

My experience (35 years in certain Ontario Crown Corporations) has been that when a management team hears the words "standalone business unit" they tend to interpret these as "exempt from all the usual scrutiny". They also hear "we can have our own separate staff and processes for everything because we're special". In my experience, while these standalone units may claim to be more productive by virtue of a narrow bottom line focus, this extra overhead (inevitably the startup generates elaborate rationales why they are "different" and how the generic service doesn't meet their needs) turns out to be more expensive than if the entity is operated as one division of the main organization, drawing on all the economies of scale in corporate services and processes.

The danger of the "we are focussed on our specific bottom line" argument is - if there is insufficient true market pressure, costs get passed on to the customer instead of being seen as something that ought to be aggressively curtailed. The bottom line looks compelling but the customer is gouged. (I could cite some Ontario Energy Board rulings that reached this conclusion in the electricity sector, but I won't)

At some later date, housecleaning or hard-nosed budget cutting discovers the room for economies, and the standalone is told to suck it up and rejoin the base organization. The UPX/GO situation is might be fertile ground for a provincial Auditor General audit - the Ontario AG is pretty good at finding this stuff.

The uniform thing may seem trivial....but why would UPX maintain its own uniform stockkeeping instead of just having the GO stockkeepers perform the uniform supply for them - at little or no added labour cost?

The "branding" thing is a bit of a red herring. If you want different branding, have a single uniform procurement and design process. Hand out black polo shirts to GO and hand out red polo shirts to UPX staff. But why the need for an expensive fashion designer and a whole different style of uniform with its own sourcing? That's the "standalone" mentality run amok. No matter how the service is priced, it's money (ours, the taxpayer) that doesn't need to be spent.

Compensation is especially harmful to the "we are special" mentality. I pored over the Sunshine list today, trying to compare UPX executives from GO executives. Job titles make this difficult. But it would be interesting to see how much UPX senior people are paid for their 28-unit operation versus what the GO Rail people are paid for the same function in a 600+ railcar and 70+ locomotive operation.

Back when they did the EA for the proposed layover facility at Islington, the consultant produced a sample organization chart to estimate the size of the offices and employee accommodations needed for the UPX facility. It was egregiously overstaffed - in the order of 190 people to maintain a 28-car fleet. It had its own security force, and enough maintenance planners to stage a pretty good sized nuclear reactor outage. I will try to find the url to the document.

The mentality is incredibly hard to corrall....I have seen that done, but it's a brutal process. I would have hoped Metrolinx would be managed tightly to avoid getting there in the first place.

End of rant.

One tangential comment for those analysing costs - the labour costs cited are wage costs, I presume. Don't forget to mark these up to include pension and benefits costs. These can be as high as 50% on top of wages, for a union workforce that has good bargained provisions.

- Paul
 
Good thing, then, that they can continue to use the same set of GO trains at $5.09 a trip to do that. Phew!

Ok then, but that is different from what you said a couple of posts ago when, according to you, only people with lots of money could/would ride the train.

I think you know a lot about this project, so I'm guessing you are deliberately missing the point, right?

Commuting on GO and TTC doesn't cost $5, it costs $8 because transfers are not permitted. And commuting requires frequent trains that are not full - does GO deliver that now to Weston or Bloor - and will the current GO RER plan ever deliver that, do you think?

Put another way, UPE is now the proud "owner" of two dedicated rail tracks across west end Toronto. How much is that worth? About $4 billion, I'd say. Not a great way to use $4 billion of transport infrastructure IMO.

A "few" million on stations and likely a lot more designing a much higher capacity system if, as you proposed, this was priced at $3 a ride....so how much more than the current $500 million (+/-) would that higher capacity system cost?

So you now think there's huge unmet demand from local commuters along this line? Exactly my point - so let's start meeting that demand by managing these two tracks appropriately.

The danger of the "we are focussed on our specific bottom line" argument is - if there is insufficient true market pressure, costs get passed on to the customer instead of being seen as something that ought to be aggressively curtailed. The bottom line looks compelling but the customer is gouged. (I could cite some Ontario Energy Board rulings that reached this conclusion in the electricity sector, but I won't)

- Paul

Nice insightful discussion. It kind of jibes with my sense that ironically, precisely because this line is supposed to break even, they feel they can just spend whatever they want. But it's still money wasted, whether it is the passenger paying for it, or the taxpayer.
 
If we required the Spadina extension to cover its capital costs, how much would a ticket cost? $30 a ride?
No where near that I'd think. Average cost for a TTC ride is about $3 or so (average revenue is about $2). I doubt Spadina would cost much more than $3 a ride for the 6 stations ... the issue is transfers more than anything else, as many riders will also be using another route as well.
 
I think you know a lot about this project, so I'm guessing you are deliberately missing the point, right?

I am most certainly not deliberately missing any point.

Commuting on GO and TTC doesn't cost $5, it costs $8 because transfers are not permitted. And commuting requires frequent trains that are not full - does GO deliver that now to Weston or Bloor - and will the current GO RER plan ever deliver that, do you think?

I was simply responding to your statement that no one will pay $19 to commute from Weston to downtown by pointing out that a commuter would not have to make their daily commute on the UPe because the same trains that currently exist for their commute will still exist and hopefully will some day be expanded. Sure if it is an all transit commute there will be transfers.....same as there would be in your $19 commute.....so, in other words, I was comparing your $19 to the $5.09 train that already exists (to be fair to UPe, a Weston to Union fare is more like $15 (IIRC) with Presto....but, still it is not meant to take people off of the $5.09 GO Train that exists)


So you now think there's huge unmet demand from local commuters along this line? Exactly my point - so let's start meeting that demand by managing these two tracks appropriately.

I am suggesting that, yes, there are transit users in the areas along the line and more of them will be attracted to this corridor at a $2.80 fare than a $5.09 fare or a $15 fare....and as part of the regular TTC service bus routes would feed it and the sort of rolling stock purchased under the existing plan and the sort of frequencies would not serve that demand.

I have no problem if you, or anyone else, thinks this should be converted to some sort of DRL service for the west end....but show some integrity and try and estimate the true additional cost...because it is not a 'few million"
 
No where near that I'd think. Average cost for a TTC ride is about $3 or so (average revenue is about $2). I doubt Spadina would cost much more than $3 a ride for the 6 stations ... the issue is transfers more than anything else, as many riders will also be using another route as well.

"Capital cost" - you can look it up.

Actually I think we already know operating cost for this line will be about $5 per passenger, from the TTC's own numbers. For capital costs, let's figure 5 million rides per year for 30 years. So $3 billion divided by 150 million rides gives ...

Oh you're right, I'm too high. A ride on the Spadina extension will cost $25 per passenger, not $30. My bad!
 
I am most certainly not deliberately missing any point.

Sorry if that came out sounding wrong, I apologize. Yes, DRL Lite on the UPE route would ost more than a few million - but a lot less than subway or even SmartTrack as proposed. (That platform and tracks down at Union would come in real handy too, I guess.)
 
"Capital cost" - you can look it up.
One might be able to look up the capital cost - but in no discussion about transit subsidies for operations has capital cost been included.

let's figure 5 million rides per year for 30 years
In 2008 Metrolinx predicted over 20 million riders a year. The 196 York Rocket alone carries about 6 million a year now! Why would you choose such a low number?
 
One might be able to look up the capital cost - but in no discussion about transit subsidies for operations has capital cost been included.

Read the one above, breathe, and think about it.

In 2008 Metrolinx predicted over 20 million riders a year. The 196 York Rocket alone carries about 6 million a year now! Why would you choose such a low number?

You have to discount future projected ridership for the time value of money (and for the reliability of such forecasts). I prefer to use current projections than future ones. As to the 196, did they ever solve the problem of not forcing these people to pay 2 fares, if they are originating outside the TTC's area and now transferring to the subway?

(That's a real question, not a rhetorical one. You should try it maybe.)
 
You have to discount future projected ridership for the time value of money (and for the reliability of such forecasts). I prefer to use current projections than future ones. As to the 196, did they ever solve the problem of not forcing these people to pay 2 fares, if they are originating outside the TTC's area and now transferring to the subway?

(That's a real question, not a rhetorical one. You should try it maybe.)

I am loathe to continue a Spadina discussion in this thread but.....


....isn't the 196 a route that runs from York U to Downsview station? If that is right, then I have no idea why someone looking at a bus route that only covers that territory and carries 6 million ppl/yr would then say that a subway covering the same route faster and going north from York would only carry 5 million/yr.

All of the people now on the 196 (which would be, I think, mostly students at york) would be on the subway and it would pick up:

1. more students coming from the north
2. all of the riders to York on Brampton Transit who's buses will no longer go directly into the campus but will connect to the subway
3. non-student commuters who's destination is not York.

5 million, in that light, seems like an intentionally low number to support some thesis/agenda.
 
Read the one above, breathe, and think about it.
The post above mine is "Sorry if that came out sounding wrong, I apologize. ...". Why are you talking in riddles?

You have to discount future projected ridership for the time value of money (and for the reliability of such forecasts). I prefer to use current projections than future ones. As to the 196, did they ever solve the problem of not forcing these people to pay 2 fares, if they are originating outside the TTC's area and now transferring to the subway?
When I take the 196, most people seem to be coming from inside Toronto. Not sure why anyone from outside of Toronto would go all the way down to Downsview, and then take the 196 back to York.

There is always reason to question and discuss official estimates. However if you honestly think that 30 years from now the ridership on the Spadina subway extension is going to be less than current Downsview to York University shuttle, then it suggests that we shouldn't take a simple number you put out seriously.

(That's a real question, not a rhetorical one. You should try it maybe.)
What 196 riders are paying 2 fares? Those would be people currently arriving at York University on York, Brampton, or GO transit, and then immediately transferring to 196 to go to Downsview station. I don't think few if anyone is doing this. I think you are pulling this scenario out of your imagination - it doesn't happen to any significant extent.
 
Mark Sunday April 26th, 2015 on your calenders folks,
because that should be the first day of service for the Union Pearson Express‎.

This is according to our work schedules. If its not up and running by that day then they'll be paying no less than 16 trains crews a whole lot of money to do absolutely nothing.

According to this Toronto Star report, the date of opening won't be even set until after the 28th of April.

http://www.thestar.com/news/gta/tra...target-date-but-forecasts-high-ridership.html

thatarticlefromthestar said:
Metrolinx spokesperson Anne Marie Aikins confirmed that April 5 had been a target “because we do want to give ourselves some time before the Pan Am Games, so we had some draft dates.â€

Transportation officials don’t think they’re too far off, she said. But the exact date won’t be determined until after “critical†evacuation simulations are conducted April 11 and 28. Metrolinx will be issuing public alerts prior to the tests so that people who witness the exercises on the elevated rail spur into the airport don’t call 911.
 
According to this Toronto Star report, the date of opening won't be even set until after the 28th of April.

http://www.thestar.com/news/gta/tra...target-date-but-forecasts-high-ridership.html
If the start running full service on April 28th, I wouldn't be surprised if they did it without customers for 2-3 days anyway, just to make sure it's running smoothly. If that April 28th test date is correct, I'd expect they target a launch date within a few days of that. If.
 
If the start running full service on April 28th, I wouldn't be surprised if they did it without customers for 2-3 days anyway, just to make sure it's running smoothly. If that April 28th test date is correct, I'd expect they target a launch date within a few days of that. If.

My May 4th prediction came back to life!
 

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