Toronto The HUB | 258.46m | 59s | Oxford Properties | Rogers Stirk Harbour

...for those who have been living under a rock here, the office market has gone bust of late. And there's been no anchor tenant interested to make this tower a thing. Until those two stars line up, please don't bump this thread until you, the bumper, have new and relevant information to that effect. Thnkx!
 
UtakataNoAnnex said:
...for those who have been living under a rock here, the office market has gone bust of late. And there's been no anchor tenant interested to make this tower a thing. Until those two stars line up, please don't bump this thread until you, the bumper, have new and relevant information to that effect. Thnkx!
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At the risk of adding one more 'bump' to the thread, I'm going to go way out on the proverbial limb and predict that the only way 'this' tower ever sees the light of day is as a significantly modified residential development, and that, at some years off.
 
Doppleganger said:
At the risk of adding one more 'bump' to the thread, I'm going to go way out on the proverbial limb and predict that the only way 'this' tower ever sees the light of day is as a significantly modified residential development, and that, at some years off.
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Meh- land for offices in the core is hard to come by, and this is one such rare parcel. To redevelop for residential would prohibit office uses on this lot in the future. So, a developer would have to be short-sighted, or very confident in their long-term outlook to change to Res here.

I really don’t think office is in that dire of a position for the long term. Will this take longer to fill and build now? Sure, but office is very lucrative and is not worth throwing out with the bathwater. Maybe a mixed office/res development, but it’s unlikely this close to the core.
 
Sunnyside said:
Meh- land for offices in the core is hard to come by, and this is one such rare parcel. To redevelop for residential would prohibit office uses on this lot in the future. So, a developer would have to be short-sighted, or very confident in their long-term outlook to change to Res here.

I really don’t think office is in that dire of a position for the long term. Will this take longer to fill and build now? Sure, but office is very lucrative and is not worth throwing out with the bathwater. Maybe a mixed office/res development, but it’s unlikely this close to the core.
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Perhaps so, but if you factor in how the pandemic accelerated 'work from home', how slow Canadian white-collar workers have been to return full-time to the office, and perhaps most significantly, the impact AI is, and will continue to have on the workforce, I'd say all bets are off.
 
Doppleganger said:
Perhaps so, but if you factor in how the pandemic accelerated 'work from home', how slow Canadian white-collar workers have been to return full-time to the office, and perhaps most significantly, the impact AI is, and will continue to have on the workforce, I'd say all bets are off.
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The floorplate of this design is not easily converted to residential; and going pure residential would be considerably less ROI in the long term.

Oxford is deep pocketed long money.

I don't see a conversion here as likely.

@Sunnyside is on point.

as is @ProjectEnd in noting Oxford has other projects closer to being advanced at this time.

Will this site get revisited if the office market hasn't recovered substantially in say, 5 years, probably........... but we're not there.
 
Doppleganger said:
Perhaps so, but if you factor in how the pandemic accelerated 'work from home', how slow Canadian white-collar workers have been to return full-time to the office, and perhaps most significantly, the impact AI is, and will continue to have on the workforce, I'd say all bets are off.
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To be succinct about it, if these were office killers, the effects would be more pronounced. Lower-end offices may go, yes. But, the problem with the view that remote work can eliminate ‘good’ offices is:

A) many entities do actually value physical office space…

B) …because the real world is not the digital.

Compromising physical assets for digital conveniences implies you can disentangle your ‘work’ from the real, physical things you do, and by extension, why we do them where we do. We are not there yet, else we’d see the fabled demise of offices. The market (rightfully) sees too many uncertainties to take such a leap.

Finally, thx for that, @Northern Light , who has hit the nail on the head on timeline.
 
Doppleganger said:
At the risk of adding one more 'bump' to the thread, I'm going to go way out on the proverbial limb and predict that the only way 'this' tower ever sees the light of day is as a significantly modified residential development, and that, at some years off.
Click to expand...

Believe it or not, there is still a strong market for AAA office space. A and especially B class are doing absolutely terrible.

This is an excellent lot for executive offices for a high-value company willing to pay a premium. We may well see A/B-class buildings [strong location, poor interiors/facilities], like those at Yonge & Bloor, being demolished at the some time as billion dollar AAA buildings are rising around Union.
 
rbt said:
Believe it or not, there is still a strong market for AAA office space. A and especially B class are doing absolutely terrible.

This is an excellent lot for executive offices for a high-value company willing to pay a premium. We may well see A/B-class buildings [strong location, poor interiors/facilities], like those at Yonge & Bloor, being demolished at the some time as billion dollar AAA buildings are rising around Union.
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And the companies likeliest to pay big $$$ for such office space are, it seems, moving slowly but steadily toward a full-ish return to in-person work -- namely, banks/asset managers and big tech. Of course only a hunch, but my guess would be that WFH will be stickiest in the more "creative class" professions. And those employers were never taking AAA financial district leases -- more like brick-and-beams in King West.

I suspect that in the medium to long run, marquee office buildings with strong transit access are going to be just fine. And as GO continues to expand and become more useful, proximity to Union will be even more valuable.
 
Office work can be useful. If you're collaborating on projects or able to socialize, there is value there. My company has gone the wrong way. They issued a back-to-work mandate, which everyone is now abusing, and which has decreased morale across the org. My team in particular is geographically dispersed, so I end up seeing no one, and spending more money on crappy food I don't want at lunch. It's really just about the lunch economy, and institutional landlords needing butts in seats. Anyone telling you otherwise is trying to sell you something untrue.

The smartest businesses would use this for collaboration and team building, while promoting work from home when you're doing independent work, or, create a more open system where you work at home or in office depending on what enables you to be most productive and self actualized, which in turn creates more productivity. Sounds corny, but it really does work well. We are just very conservative (read: crusty, lame) when it comes to our office culture.
 
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