Toronto Spadina Subway Extension Emergency Exits | ?m | 1s | TTC | IBI Group

[nfitz]

How often do you see P3 style setups (replace the "public" with a purchasing company) in private business?

Not often, because while P3s might be more predictable, they are both slower and on average more expensive.

You have to advance the design a lot further, and do a lot more investigation before you can get a consortium to take over all the risks. Even for something like Eglinton, they did the tunnelling on a traditional contract basis. To have the consortium take on the tunnelling would have had a huge risk for the consortium, and would have required a much larger cost - can you imagine the costs if something had gone wrong in the tunnelling like it did for the current Seattle highway tunnel, where the TBM broke down half-way, and they had to build an unplanned shaft to retrieve it in the middle of downtown?

If you want the consortium (whose prime motive is to make profit) to take all the risk, it comes with a cost - a higher price. And it takes longer to get set up as well. If the subway is indeed $400 million over budget on the $2.63 billion estimate (hardly shocking given much of the money is being spent 2 to 3 years later than originally planned), that represents about 15%.

You don't think the costs to have done it as a PPP wouldn't have been more than 15% to cover the extra investigation, design, risk, insurance policies, and of course the profit?

Yes, you get better cost control. Cost control of a much higher cost.

 

[BurlOak]

Not often, because while P3s might be more predictable, they are both slower and on average more expensive.

You have to advance the design a lot further, and do a lot more investigation before you can get a consortium to take over all the risks. Even for something like Eglinton, they did the tunnelling on a traditional contract basis. To have the consortium take on the tunnelling would have had a huge risk for the consortium, and would have required a much larger cost - can you imagine the costs if something had gone wrong in the tunnelling like it did for the current Seattle highway tunnel, where the TBM broke down half-way, and they had to build an unplanned shaft to retrieve it in the middle of downtown?

If you want the consortium (whose prime motive is to make profit) to take all the risk, it comes with a cost - a higher price. And it takes longer to get set up as well. If the subway is indeed $400 million over budget on the $2.63 billion estimate (hardly shocking given much of the money is being spent 2 to 3 years later than originally planned), that represents about 15%.

You don't think the costs to have done it as a PPP wouldn't have been more than 15% to cover the extra investigation, design, risk, insurance policies, and of course the profit?

Yes, you get better cost control. Cost control of a much higher cost.

The only way P3 works is if they do the entire project (investigations done before). That way they can optimize the project based on the strengths of the consortium.

The worst thing to do is complete the tunnelling and station headwalls and then hand it to the P3 consortium. The tunnels themselves, which are a smaller part of the cost have now force the remainder of the project to go along one line of thought - and even though many Billions of dollars of expenses are still outstanding, we have prevented the consortium from finding true savings.

Once they decided to do the tunnelling as a separate contract - they should have had each station as a separate contract.

 

[nfitz]

The only way P3 works is if they do the entire project (investigations done before). That way they can optimize the project based on the strengths of the consortium.

Your not going to get cost effective bids that way, as they have to cover the risk of the cost being much more than expected.

The worst thing to do is complete the tunnelling and station headwalls and then hand it to the P3 consortium. The tunnels themselves, which are a smaller part of the cost have now force the remainder of the project to go along one line of thought - and even though many Billions of dollars of expenses are still outstanding, we have prevented the consortium from finding true savings.

The tunnels might be a lot cheaper than the stations, however they have a much higher risk, given the implications of what happens if the TBM fails. Including the tunnelling in the P3 raises the risk that the consortium would try and go for a more disruptive and often more expensive cut-and-cover technique - but with a lot lower risk (and therefore actually cheaper for the P3).

 

[BurlOak]

Your not going to get cost effective bids that way, as they have to cover the risk of the cost being much more than expected.

Same thing on a stand alone tunnel project - they bid in the risk.

The tunnels might be a lot cheaper than the stations, however they have a much higher risk, given the implications of what happens if the TBM fails. Including the tunnelling in the P3 raises the risk that the consortium would try and go for a more disruptive and often more expensive cut-and-cover technique - but with a lot lower risk (and therefore actually cheaper for the P3).

I'm not sure, but I think both recent Vancouver examples had tunnelling included in the P3 contract.

 

[Toffy]

Ultimately, surely.

But I don't think it's starting next year, so I think innsertnamehere is correct, that it's going to sit empty for a while.

Actually, the passing track on the Barrie line has already been tendered out and construction should be starting soon. It just never received any media attention, unlike the Stouffville line passing track which received media attention just for the release of the tender documents.

Fermar Paving was the low bidder, at just under 17 million dollars IIRC. Fermar Paving recently completed their portion of the GTS project, between Islington and Highway 27.

Back on the subject of this subway line, does anyone have a cost breakdown of the project? I was going over the 6 contracts that were awarded for the construction of the tunnels and stations.
They're as follows:
OHL Construction, North Tunnels and Highway 407 Station: 420 Million
Carillion Canada: VCC Station: 198 Million
Walsh Construction, Steeles West Station: 167 million
EllisDon, York University Station: 118 Million
Bondfield Construction, Finch West Station: 126 Million
Aecon, South Tunnels and Sheppard West Station: 279 Million.
Total: 1.308 Billion
Numbers rounded to the nearest million for simplicity.

I'm missing the track and signals contract along with plenty of other smaller contracts such as advance utility relocation.

Just wondering where the rest of the money went to.

 

[Adjei]

Engineering, consultants, the purchase of extra trains, and contigency

 

[nfitz]

Same thing on a stand alone tunnel project - they bid in the risk.

Not the same. If the boring machine that Metrolinx purchased separately breaks down or has to be extracted from an unplanned shaft, Metrolinx is going to have to pay more.

I'm not sure, but I think both recent Vancouver examples had tunnelling included in the P3 contract.

The Canada Line it was included - not sure what other recent Vancouver tunnelling project you are referring to. But surely that's the example of why you don't include as P3, as they didn't use a TBM, instead they excavated Cambie and did cut-and-cover creating massive disturbance to the community, merely to protect a foreign consortium's profits.

 

[nfitz]

Actually, the passing track on the Barrie line has already been tendered out and construction should be starting soon. It just never received any media attention, unlike the Stouffville line passing track which received media attention just for the release of the tender documents.

That doesn't cover the bottleneck between the Weston subdivision and that double-tracked section. I don't think the new Davenport grade separation will be opening next year.

 

[DSC]

 

[TheTigerMaster]

Hey, all I can say is that it ain't my fault. Go ask that other guy.

 

[arcum]

If building a subway to Vaughan has this many problems, just imagine how many delays and cost overruns the DRL will face, running though 100+ year old neighbourhoods with utilities and watermains everywhere.

 

[smallspy]

Actually, the passing track on the Barrie line has already been tendered out and construction should be starting soon. It just never received any media attention, unlike the Stouffville line passing track which received media attention just for the release of the tender documents.

Fermar Paving was the low bidder, at just under 17 million dollars IIRC. Fermar Paving recently completed their portion of the GTS project, between Islington and Highway 27.

That wasn't the tender for the second track, but rather just the grading for it.

There may be other tenders let for the track construction or signalling - or they may just hand it over to PNR to do.

Dan
Toronto, Ont.

 

[BurlOak]

Not the same. If the boring machine that Metrolinx purchased separately breaks down or has to be extracted from an unplanned shaft, Metrolinx is going to have to pay more.

The Canada Line it was included - not sure what other recent Vancouver tunnelling project you are referring to. But surely that's the example of why you don't include as P3, as they didn't use a TBM, instead they excavated Cambie and did cut-and-cover creating massive disturbance to the community, merely to protect a foreign consortium's profits.

For Canada line, TBM was used for about 2.5km under False Creek. about 6.5km was cut-and-cover under Cambie where the road was wide enough. Of course people compained, just like people in Toronto complained about St. Clair and now Eglinton.

I looked up Evergreen Line, the one that is going on right now. It appears that about 2km will be tunnelled, 5 km elevated, and 4 km at grade and the bid price was $1.4B (or $130M/km). This quote from Wiki is interesting.

On February 13, 2015, the provincial government announced that the opening of the line will be delayed until late 2016, due to slower-than-expected tunnel boring process. Any costs associated with the delay will come at no cost to the taxpayers, and will instead be covered by the contractor.

 

[pman]

If building a subway to Vaughan has this many problems, just imagine how many delays and cost overruns the DRL will face, running though 100+ year old neighbourhoods with utilities and watermains everywhere.

Well played, Sir or Madam! We should only build grade-separated heavy rail rapid transit in locations where there are virtually no people within a 10-minute walk of any station, because aside from the Ford-Mammo equity argument that people in the suburbs deserve subways, it's way cheaper to tunnel under empty fields, forests and vast tracts of low-density strip malls and subdivisions. Let's can the DRL and extend the Spadina subway to Orangeville instead!

 

[nfitz]

Of course people compained, just like people in Toronto complained about St. Clair and now Eglinton.

I don't think the complaints about St. Clair or Eglinton are anywhere near the level of complaints about Yonge.

I looked up Evergreen Line, the one that is going on right now. It appears that about 2km will be tunnelled, 5 km elevated, and 4 km at grade and the bid price was $1.4B (or $130M/km).

I hadn't realised there were a short piece of tunnel on that line. If they've done PPP, they'll be paying through the nose for that piece of tunnel compared to had they done it separately ... what are the Eglinton tunnels - about $40 million per km?